Buffettz

Department of Energy Technology Metals Subsidy Program Is Short-Sighted

I think the imports of these metals will cost the US a lot less than the $475b it spent on imported oil last year. Get some perspective!

The Solar Market: Horseshoes, Hand Grenandes and Demand Predictions

Interesting article in latest Photon mag on Japan, could turn out to be anything up to a 1GW market if they reintroduce a subsidy plan

First Solar Should Again Crush Estimates Wednesday

The last quarter was a blow out mainly due to the faster than expected ramp-up of the German plant, but that can't be repeated this quarter as it is at 100% capacity. I can't see how Q4 can deliver more than about $0.62, they just don't have any more production capacity.
What could lift the stock are any plans for further factories which must just be a mater of time.

SunPower Gets Market Drubbing, so Who's Next?

What negative response? It's share price has now recovered on a down day. I would not draw any long-term conclusions on one days share price movement especially while the overall market is shakey. Recent corrections from rediculous PEs was purely about the stock market, not the solar market. I challenge you to find during the earning season any solar company voice any concern whatsoever on weakening demand. SPWR's conference call is extremely bullish on future demand.

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part I)

I can find no evidence that FSLR is not receiving all the CdTe it requires from 5N Plus. I think you will see when FSLR releases its Q4 results that its Q4 on Q2 growth will be similar to 5N Plus' Q2 on Q1 revenue growth to FSLR.
If you crank the numbers to estimate 5N Plus' year on year revenue growth to FSLR (which we do not have exact figures for) then it is in line with FSLR's year on year growth.
If your theory is true both companies are willfully deceiving their shareholders, which in this day and age lands you in jail. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one, which is that the growth in 9N Plus' revenue from FSLR is a leading indicator of FSLR's revenue growth.
It isn't long until FSLR releases its next results and we will see who's right.

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part I)

I have been doing some more investigation into the 9N Plus/FSLR situation and by my analysis 9N Plus is only at about 50% of its current CdTe capacity. However FSLR was at about 93% of its total US and German capacity last quarter and the Malaysian plant does not start its ramp until Q1 2008, so we can expect low, approx 8%, quarter on quarter revenue growth from FSLR from Q3 to Q4 2007.
I expect that is the simple explanation for 9N Plus' revenue growth. I repeat they are claiming that currently Tellurium supply is not a problem. In the conference call they also said the CdTe sells for $300-$500/kg which equates to just 6-10 cents/watt.

First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?

Could it not be that 5N Plus revenue did not shout up as they are full capacity until the new German facility comes on line? They have repeatedly stated that they do not see access to Tellurium a problem.

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part I)

Could it not be that 5N Plus revenue did not shout up as they are full capacity until the new German facility comes on line? They have repeatedly stated that they do not see access to Tellurium a problem.

First Solar, JA Solar Should Regain Momentum On Bullish Call

The US Presidential Race will be the main driver for solar in 2008. Once the Democrat vs Democrat phase is over the Democrat vs GOP phase will see both sides compete for the boldest energy indepedence plan. The people want solar!

US Energy Bill: Solar Stocks Will Feel All the Heat

The solar industry has boomed without any significant sales to the US and can continue to do so. The European target of 20% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020 is enough to stimulate demand in Spain, Italy, France and Germany for all the industry's output for the next few years. After that the cost should of fallen so that tax credits are not needed.

Falling Module ASPs Could Impact Solar Companies

This is at odds with the guidence from both Q-Cells and SunTech for 2008 given in their recent conference calls. The both seem to have a strong 2008 order book at or above the same prices as 2007. I think they are closer to the market than this analyst.