Buffettz

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part I)

I can find no evidence that FSLR is not receiving all the CdTe it requires from 5N Plus. I think you will see when FSLR releases its Q4 results that its Q4 on Q2 growth will be similar to 5N Plus' Q2 on Q1 revenue growth to FSLR.
If you crank the numbers to estimate 5N Plus' year on year revenue growth to FSLR (which we do not have exact figures for) then it is in line with FSLR's year on year growth.
If your theory is true both companies are willfully deceiving their shareholders, which in this day and age lands you in jail. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one, which is that the growth in 9N Plus' revenue from FSLR is a leading indicator of FSLR's revenue growth.
It isn't long until FSLR releases its next results and we will see who's right.

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part I)

I have been doing some more investigation into the 9N Plus/FSLR situation and by my analysis 9N Plus is only at about 50% of its current CdTe capacity. However FSLR was at about 93% of its total US and German capacity last quarter and the Malaysian plant does not start its ramp until Q1 2008, so we can expect low, approx 8%, quarter on quarter revenue growth from FSLR from Q3 to Q4 2007.
I expect that is the simple explanation for 9N Plus' revenue growth. I repeat they are claiming that currently Tellurium supply is not a problem. In the conference call they also said the CdTe sells for $300-$500/kg which equates to just 6-10 cents/watt.

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part I)

Could it not be that 5N Plus revenue did not shout up as they are full capacity until the new German facility comes on line? They have repeatedly stated that they do not see access to Tellurium a problem.