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hoonibvird

hoonibvird
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  • When Will The Bubble Burst? [View article]
    It takes a lot less money to pay 1%-2% on RECORD margin debt than it did in the 2006-2008 period. Same goes for UNCLE SAM (substantial deficit increase as rates esculate)! AS long as the rates stay "abnormally low" for an extended time, as J Yellen has declared more than once now, the market levels can and probably will stay more out of touch with reality for a longer period of time. When rates rise more or less torwards the norm (5%-7%), we will see one hell of an adjustment in equity valuation levels, and quickly as the smoke clears. The other unspoken fear is that the FED will completely looses control of inflation by complacency or over playing its $$ hand. In eeither event, all the suckers or the last ones in will be once again burned at the stake.
    Apr 3 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Smell A Trading Opportunity Coming [View article]
    yes, your article is a study of flipping coins. We all know the current stats but how the future unfolds is anyone's guess. The low interest rates can still foster interest in the dividend paying stocks and rise they may but beware with the total amt of margin debt and the high degree of bullishness. In my 35 yrs of experience, the mkts change when most least expect it. There is a limit as to how hard the Fed can push on the string. These are unusual and unsustainable trends that in all probability will lead to the killing fields sooner than later.
    Mar 4 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Austrians Are Right - Inflation Is Coming [View article]
    Under the initial formulation of Soc Sec, it was a form of collective insurance and the $ collected was segregated and paid out as per contract. Then along came the liberal wizards of the 1960's and puff, this $ went into the operating budget of the USA and the Soc Sec future recipients received IOU's from Uncle Sam. The program is no longer insurance but a liability and now the retirees are at the behest of the Treasury to pay from the operating budget. Make your own retirement plan and invest wisely keeping in mind there will always be busts and excesses! Nothing is forever. The entitlements of our society will wreck havoc for those who study and work hard to achieve their dreams.
    Dec 2 08:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ominous Bear Market Signals [View article]
    Old Timer, you are right... as the old saying goes, you can give a man a fish......... etc. In the present day case, when the FED reduces, or stops adding fuel to the fire, the fire will be under normal control and gradually what asset prices were bid up under false pretenses will find the correct pricing rapidly... witness the recent sudden change in interest rates caused by fears of immediate tapering. Rapid or even normal growth has not reappeared under the Fed's mandates. As a matter of fact, one could argue the reverse. The final demand has not actually increased but merely slowly returned to levels of 5 years ago and at a great expense to savers. When the price supports are removed (rates rise) one will see how fast the P-E's decline as the abysmal growth rate of GNP actually goes into a negative figure. This economic environment can be compared to the period in 2007/8 when the car companies were giving large incentives to move inventory. This only exacerbated the problem as it merely accelerated demand at the expense of the future.The FED has supplied the largest companies and banks with the where with all to shrink their capitalizations and make acquisitions at bargain rates. The benefits have not "trickled down" yet to those on main street. The lack of top line growth is a better picture of the current conditions. When the FED removes the candy and look out below! The FED has only postponed the day of reckoning just like our drunken politicians in Washington have been doing with the debt level.. If the punch bowl is not removed soon, the DOLLAR will be virtually worthless in a short time. The party always ends, and always when it is least expected!
    Nov 23 09:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Still Too Early To Worry About The Fed Tapering [View article]
    The Fed has been acting like a drunken sailor and basically the QE has only added to banking reserves and has not contributed to general econ growth. If the consumer has no appetite for increasing consumption, then no amount of QE will change their minds. Like pushing on a string, it only adds to the poss of future inflation or a contraction because this $4 trillion will have to be dealt with someday.This reckless policy has only provided very easy money for the large corporations to become even larger thru acquisitions, or buying company shares, and is actually a deterrent to increasing employment because the first thing the acquirer does is layoff personnel. We have an asset class bubble because the analysts are basing their valuations on unsustainable LOW interest rates when measuring the current and future market valuations. Margin levels are at all time highs, the new high list appears like the bottom of a pyramid and the momentum stocks have risen to astronomical levels. This has ocurred because of cheap margin rates and a reckless disregard for valuations. We have been here before... 69-70, 74, 79-81, 87, 90-91, 98, 2000-01, 2008-2009. There will be most definitely another similar event, only we can never pinpoint the exact time nor the severity.
    Nov 2 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why You Should Sell Stocks Into This Fed-Induced Market Bubble [View article]
    Shove aside all the prognosticators and analysts, and above all else, do not follow the sheep. In my 35 years of experience there is only one tried and true signal of the future direction of the market. When you are heading to the adding machine once or twice a day to check on your account balance and have a big grin on your face, it is time TO SELL. Conversely, when you are heading to the bathroom and holding your head over the toilet violently vomiting, after checking the declining value of your holdings on the other side of the mountain, it is TIME TO MORTAGE YOUR HOME and BUY SECURITIES. Our inner most feelings are the most valid indicators of the future market direction in an absolute sense and, the more intense the feeling, the closer is the impending direction change. There are others of course, as have been listed by different contributors above, but in my opinion, these personal reactions represent the BEST raw data of the psychological conditions of the market. Recently, I have been paying close attention to my increasing portfolio value! My feeling is that we are very close to an important inflection point.
    Oct 31 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Can Only Fail [View article]
    well, if your scenario occurs, then you had better be able to pay the monstrous property tax on your farmland in part to pay your share of the distributed wealth and to repay the Chinese all the $ borrowed to keep the 47% happy but not prosperous! And BTW, you better have a few guns in the barn.....

    Hyperinflation will arrive (or deflation) caused by postponing the day of reckoning by believing that this cycle can be prolongated forever and is perpetrated by the Fed... I can see either eventuality happening because the Fed is just pushing on a string and the Gov is dead set on stifling the golden goose, our capitalist system. It is all about me! (the politicians and their collective efforts in bad faith to preserve their solidarity).

    They are the incredibly dumb ones and all act like sheeples. Remember, it was said the Titanic couldn't sink. Just wait... it will be very painful. I remember all too well 1969-70, 1973-74, 1977-78, 1980-82, 1987-88, 1990-1991, 1998, 2001-02, 2008-09 and the next debacle that the forcasters are current;y saying could never happen...????? but for sure one will come when we least expect it and the results will be more devastating than all of the other ones put together because we have prolonged our fairytale standard of living through the reckless actions of fiscal and monetary policy.
    Oct 26 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Funding Entitlements With An Ever Increasing Government Debt Burden [View article]
    You missed the bigger point in my opinion..... the central issue is fraud and waste and the continuing funding of programs that are useless or have outlived their useful life. Most of the public works you cite as necessary for the economy can be paid for by users. But when I met a man on JetBlue going to the Dom Republic I now know the extent of the welfare and workfare fraud. He worked in NYC for 5 yrs. Was laid off last October. Had a wife and 2 kids in NYC. Left her and moved back to the Dom Rep where he has a new girl friend and new baby. He receives $500 per week for unemployment, for 2 years. He can access his $ from a debit card anywhere. His former wife and 2 kids are totally on the public dole in NYC and HHS does not debit his unemployment ck one penny for his wife's expenses in NYC. What goes here??? He can input his search for work on the internet, never having to visit a company to apply for a job. Where are the controls here? Our Gov programs are totally out of touch and w/o enforcement for the rules. And the tax payers suffer as a result while Congress (both parties) haggle over minutiae in retrospect. These problems will never be solved because the entitlers far outnumber the productive people in our country and politicians will continue to be generous to a fault in the name of vote insurance!!!!!
    Oct 13 03:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Tops Start With Champagne And End In Tears; Washington May Trigger This One [View article]
    If history gives us any lessons, it will be that the correction will start when the sheep least expect it and the reason will only become apparent later as the mkt will discount it in advance. We are living way beyond our means and the newbies have no experience to call on to be fearful. The margin debt levels are at historic high levels fueled by the QE process which depresses interest to abnormally low rates. And look at the market leaders this year led by NFLX and the other internet bubbles! Look out below, as markets go down much more rapidly than they rise. This period of time can be stretched but at some point the limit will be reached and when the QE policy no longer works to push growth in anything other than financial assets there will be no other alternative outcome but a run for the exits. Remember, when you are totaling up your gains everyday and the new high list grossly outnumbers the new lows, it is time to "fold 'em". Don't wait for disaster to strike, cause, as history tells us, it is always better to be safe than sorry. At some point the discounted value price of expected earnings will exceed the Fed controlled low 2% interest rates by a wide margin and equity prices will adjust accordingly and quickly! Even if allowed the Fed could not purchase enough SPY's to soak up the supply.
    Oct 13 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Short Sellers Are Not Out Of The Woods Yet [View article]
    It maybe a flop because of poor or zero marketing efforts, but not because of the technology or the 10 system. It is a brilliant communications device and once the user is comfortable using, it is the best of class. The mgt lost their way after completing the development and failed to speak up. Now the early bugs are gone with the 10.1 upgrade (soon 10.2) and works like a charm. I love my Z10 and would not trade it for anything else currently on the market! It is rapid, never freezes, very secure and can run circles around the I 5 and Galaxy. BB can only gain in stature as time passes. My fear is that it will be taken out at a low price and only a few will reap the rewards! If this doesn't happen or voted down by the existing shareholders then patience will be rewarded. Stick around as the final chapter has not been written.
    Sep 10 04:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blaming Obamacare For Decline In Average Work Week Hours [View article]
    The SS surplus disappeared the day LBJ broke the "trust" and included the SS funds in the general budget. Whose responsibility is the $17 trillion accumulated deficit? The politicians... both R and D's. The only way out of this mess without being fiscally prudent is to inflate our way out... that means that everyone's standard of living is being eroded as time goes forward. The stupid ones are the citizens who do not realize what is happening, and being given handouts for doing NOTHING for far too long. You obviously do not realize that in order to pay SS benefits, our Gov must borrow those funds from somewhere (incl our own Fed). It is true that for a short time going forward there is an actuarially current surplus in the SS system. But please do not count your chickens too fast! What is the diff if prices rise so much that the SS payment will not cover the basic costs of living, or is the SS payments decline over time because of budget constraints? Figure it out for yourself and stop listening to your favorite politician(s).

    Wake up and realize that the fairytale life we have will not and cannot last forever. It is a fiscal fact. Try living beyond your means and see what eventually happens? To those who tried or failed to connect privilege with responsibility, the government has provided the basic support. Problem is that now it has become a way of life and the burden over time to those who are working and paying their own way will find the burden to heavy to carry!

    Then your children/grandchildren will be speaking Chinese!
    Sep 7 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Has Not Doubled... Yet [View article]
    Yes, I wholly concur. Also, a strong leader like Welsh never names a successor who would overshadow the former's success! The magic for GE from 1975 to 2001 was the capital markets arm. When the crisis stripped those covers away by necessity, we could plainly see that the company was full of uninteresting and underachieving business segments. Most of these divisions were not even leaders. No one in NBC knew how to exploit the business channel like Comcast has done. The managers wear white shirts and ties and are the symbol of rigidity. The Sigma 7 program only worked because the Capital division was covering a lot of lost territory. And because of the financial catastrophe, that division is the reason the P/E multiple will never regain the lost ground. They are still a 40% bank and a lower quality one at that!

    Your observations were right on. Only a change at the top will change the investor perception going forward otherwise it will be just more of the same!
    Sep 3 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Could Pull A Dell - Buy Now [View article]
    its a great platform and phone... problem is lack of marketing and fear of burning cash too quickly. But BB needs to make that last bold effort to bring awareness to the gen public, to users of old models, to foreign users.. as of this date the Orange operation in the Dominican republic has only sold 25 Z10's and not one local representative knows anything about the new system!!! It is a crying shame that BB got the launch so wrong.

    After using the Z10 for 2 weeks, my Apple i5 ph users prefer the Z10 by a large margin. Nothing more has to be said. This life of this company is in the hands of TH and the directors.
    Sep 3 03:10 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blaming Obamacare For Decline In Average Work Week Hours [View article]
    Yes, you will receive your SS ck every month... but with whose dollars? The Chinese, stupid. And what will your ck buy every month... less and less. It is the price of a government run amok trying to satisfy all the people without regard to operating in a resp manner. The gov has failed at everything it touches. It is nothing more than a big business. Imagine the personal perks of our congressmen and women! Salaries for life, diff SS system, exempted from Obamacare and other perks too many to mention. Was this in the minds of our founders? This group of politicians, (both R and D) have been so abusive to our constitution and to whom they represent that our democracy is a basic sham and will ultimely fail all of the people.
    Sep 2 10:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The Winds Of Change Are Coming [View article]
    In 2005 the seeds were laid for the eventual crisis that culminated in 2009. With one stroke of the pen by SEC chair Chris Cox, the money center banks were allowed to increase leverage from approx 12 to 1 to 33 to 1. This created a fools paradise that allowed reckless credit expansion beyond belief. All politicians pushed for easier credit standards and mandated FNMA and FMAC to accept unknown risks. Now the FED has tried to support the recklessness by falsely inflating financial assets w/o any significant improvement in the unemployment rate or GNP growth. Over time it is impossible to have one w/o the other.

    So a hard adjustment is coming in the pricing of these financial assets when the candy bowl is removed from the table. It is called a return to normalcy. The basic economy is moving at the speed of a turtle while the prices of housing and stk mkts are near all time highs. This is an incongruent situation. Beware below. The current statistics do not show a robust recovery, but one that is basically fueled by the easy monetary policy and, which by itself, cannot support the currently high future discounted value based on the unrealistic forecast for rising economic activity.
    Sep 1 08:58 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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