Timbo

YRC Worldwide: Trucking in Trouble

The stock dropped today due to the terms of the debt exchange, not chapter 11 worries. The debt exchange would hand over 95% of the company to the bondholders. This is obviously not good for the common stock. However, still better than chapter 11 which will make the common worthless.

Sacramento, California: Reaching Prices Where There is Demand

Hey, I live in Sacramento. An article in the paper yesterday pointed out that the # of vacant homes in the Sac area rose 40% year over year. Sacramento is #2 in CA for vacant homes. Don't believe all the hype about inventory going down. I see many vacant homes without for sale signs. I guess the owners like it that way. Also, if you run the sales by zip you will see volume at record lows in the nicer areas of town. First the volume drops then price. Oh, rents are down year over year as well so all those investors will have a nice time getting cash flow in a market flooded with rentals. Wake up!

Lessons to Learn From Mortgage Lending in Australia

What will he say when the massive Australian housing bubble bursts?

Wells Fargo: Strong and Getting Stronger

I remember reading stories from "Analysts" saying how great it was for Wacovia to be buying Golden West. Same argument. Wells has marked its portfolio to fantasy. It will take time for the HELOCs to go down but down they will go. Next year we will be reading about poor Wells and their hard times. Who would think 80 Billion in HELOCs, biggest group in California, would lose value? Who indeed?

Talk Me Down From the Wells Fargo Ledge

I live in California. If you listen to what they say about their loans you can only conclude that they are lending to a shadow California where prices are still high and home equity still means equity. I wish they would tell me where this is. I'm ready to move there.

More Clues Housing Bottom May Be Near in Sacramento

I live in Sacramento and you are way off base. I check Trulia for foreclosures in my area. Almost all are not listed for sale at the moment. I walk by and they are vacant, dead grass, litter in the yards but no for sale sign, no realtor key box. I have watched dozens of houses around me go from having a for sale sign to no sign and remain vacant. I check for sales at the addresses and there are none. Do you really think the MLS lists all the houses that are in need of new owners? Wake up. I subscribe to the Bee and they have been running stories about the end of the drop since the drop began. They also recently downsized their paper and cut a few inches off the width. Please consider your sources.

Southern California Home Sales Rise: No, That's Not a Typo

During the last California downturn it was 4 years from sales bottom to price bottom. Look it up. Pick up in sales does not imply price stability.

Downey's Aversion to Home Equity, Construction Lending: Key to Its Survival

Have you been to LA? When the pay options go bad it will be all over for Downey. Sad but true. It will be "bought" for less than $1 per share. Deposits can fly out the front door faster that realtors can say now is the best time to buy.

How to Default on Your Mortgage and Stay in Your House

This may turn into a valuable lesson for the future. I live in Sacramento. I know over a dozen people who bought homes in the last few years. None put any of their money down. If that was a requirement, none would have been able to buy. Without buyers with ample "cash" the prices could not have gone up so high. In my area, they more than doubled in 4 years. Think about that. Now the reset is starting. Most of the homes have gone down far more then the piggyback loan. It is just a matter of time before these people have to sell. Now, if they couldn't come up with any down payment money when they wanted a house how will they bring money to the table if they sell at a loss? Do you think these buyers will never divorce, lose a job, get sick, etc.? Even if they don't want to sell it will be forced upon them when they can't come up with the payment. The banks need to lose big so they don't ever recreate the cycle. Think of the people who stay and pay regularly at the expense of funding their 401k. We will be taking care of their health costs in 30 years since they spent all their money on housing.
I am renter and have plenty saved for retirement. However, I don't see how the math will work out for all the people who put too much into housing. Later, years later, they will cry poor and expect a subsidy from somewhere else. We need to end this cycle and return to rational house prices.