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eabyrd

eabyrd
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  • Friday Fakery: $188Bn Buys You A One-Day Rally [View article]
    Unions.
    Aug 20 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Macro Notes: Bullish Developments [View article]
    "Emerging Markets (EEM) gen bullish stance as well (excepting China)"

    Disclosure: I am short EEM.


    Must not be too bullish...
    Aug 20 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Market Movement: Can We Continue To Ignore And Soar? [View article]
    Give us more money! A liberal solution to any budget problem. I wish I could do that BS in my personal life. "Hey boss, what you're paying me isn't enough, give me more." Of course, I can't hold a gun to their head and threaten jail time...
    Aug 20 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Fakery: $188Bn Buys You A One-Day Rally [View article]
    Gee... who would have thought all the years of high taxation and over regulation would lead CA right to the edge of disaster? What a shocker from the left coast.
    Aug 17 02:37 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy (WLT +1.7%) powers into positive territory after a Doug Kass tweet speculates Xstrata (XSRAF.PK, XSRAY.PK) is considering a ~$47.50/share bid for the coal producer. Shares had been down 5% earlier in the session. [View news story]
    He must need out...
    Aug 15 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After Underperforming Peers, It Is Time To Reconsider Valero Energy [View article]
    The beginning of June was the time to buy... up nearly 45% since. Looks to be consolidating here, but wouldn't be surprised if it's cheaper in a few days. I'm long and looking to add on a decent pullback.
    Aug 15 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ryan Detrick believes he's found another contrarian indicator to add to a long list suggesting stocks should continue higher: The percentage of "buy" calls from the sell-side on S&P 500 components has declined as stocks have gained. Not to defend the group, but might this be a logical reaction to share values 20% higher today than a year ago? [View news story]
    Not bitter... just an observation. Bad news makes markets go up, good news makes them go down. That's logical?
    Aug 14 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With the meme circulating that a sub-15 VIX is rare, not likely to last, and consequently bearish for stocks (I, II), Bespoke reminds that prior to 2007, sub-15 was closer to the norm. In one 3 year period - 1993 to 1995 - the VIX closed below 15 on 89% of all trading days. [View news story]
    Short XIV rather than long VXX. And check out SPXS, too.
    Aug 14 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ryan Detrick believes he's found another contrarian indicator to add to a long list suggesting stocks should continue higher: The percentage of "buy" calls from the sell-side on S&P 500 components has declined as stocks have gained. Not to defend the group, but might this be a logical reaction to share values 20% higher today than a year ago? [View news story]
    Logic? In these markets?! Ha! Best one of I've heard all day!
    Aug 14 03:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConAgra Foods: A Candidate For Value-Enhancing Split-Up Or Divestiture [View article]
    Regardless, CAG a nice core holding with very low beta of 0.47 and solid yield of 3.9%.

    Long CAG.
    Aug 13 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast's (CMCSA) NBC hopes the ratings boost it got from the Olympics will continue as it rolls out new shows that it heavily promoted during the games. With a total audience of over 210M, the Olympics is the second-most watched event in U.S. TV history. However, NBC's record of introducing programs during the games is mediocre, with just 27% making it past one season since 1996. [View news story]
    Always reminds me of the Family Guy episode where they go to NBC Studios and there's a sign as they pull in that reads: "NBC - We used to have Seinfeld, remember?"
    Aug 13 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYT's Catherine Rampell investigates whether the recovery really is the worst since the Great Depression and finds that on almost every measure she looked at, "there was at least one previous (completed) recovery that performed worse." However, improvements across different metrics are way below the average. [View news story]
    Excellent points, Wyatt.

    "It doesn't matter if you vote Democrat or Republican, the government always wins."
    Aug 12 03:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYT's Catherine Rampell investigates whether the recovery really is the worst since the Great Depression and finds that on almost every measure she looked at, "there was at least one previous (completed) recovery that performed worse." However, improvements across different metrics are way below the average. [View news story]
    I agree. My point, to which you alluded, is that headlines like 'Markets up 60% Under Obama' are trivial when applied to "most Americans" because it's an attempt to cherry-pick one statistic (to mislead) and dupe people in to believing that Obama is good for business. Capital strikes, lack of confidence, and fleeing jobs indicate that he is not good for business.

    And thanks for the empirical breakdown of the relationships and beneficiaries of price movements.

    Regarding treasuries, it is an excellent time to borrow, but many simply cannot... from lack of a decent job (or a job at all) or lack of creditworthiness, for example.

    You may be right that the fear is irrational. Nevertheless, perception is reality. If people think it's rough out there, they'll plan and act accordingly.

    No, the world isn't about to end (not December yet :) ). But again, if people feel like it is - regardless if it's logical, rational, or justifiable - they will act like it is.
    Aug 12 02:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYT's Catherine Rampell investigates whether the recovery really is the worst since the Great Depression and finds that on almost every measure she looked at, "there was at least one previous (completed) recovery that performed worse." However, improvements across different metrics are way below the average. [View news story]
    Meanwhile... since Jan. 20, 2009...

    US Dollar ($DXY) from 86.38 down to 82.64, -4.3%... bad for all.

    Gold (GLD) from $84.52 up to 157.18, +86%... people scared to death.

    US 10-yr yield ($TNX) from 2.345% down to 1.649%, -29.7%... great for savers, huh? Oh, and people scared to death.

    WTI crude from 38.74 up to 93.36, +141%... Great for us consumers, eh?

    Gasoline from $1.85 up to $3.67, +96.3%... Energy prices nearly doubled but hey, at least my portfolio is up 60%.

    All things are relative.
    Aug 12 01:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYT's Catherine Rampell investigates whether the recovery really is the worst since the Great Depression and finds that on almost every measure she looked at, "there was at least one previous (completed) recovery that performed worse." However, improvements across different metrics are way below the average. [View news story]
    Nothing more than typical NYT liberal dribble. More troubling than their stories is the fact that sheeple believe their stories.
    Aug 12 12:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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