rana

Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings

selloff in solar because of valuation - what is this simplistic generalization?
we get examples like FSLR ENER..., but what about SOL WFR TSL that trade with PE's close to 10 for this year and many others that are well below?
most of this forward estimates are based on oil at 90-110. so companies that are growing well above 20% and have PE's in the teens or lower are overvalued?
let's get real and stop being like deers in the headlights. we will always get price flactuations since this is the nature of the market. read about it in articles that deal with market psychology.
are we in the first inning of major selloff? only time will tell. if it does it will be confluence of events that will drive the selloff. they will all create enough fear to make it happen.
saying that the selloff is because oil dropped to 100$ or the wrong claim of overvaluation (the wrong claim is because of the generalization, there are few that sure are overvalued), is just small part of what is driving and what will keep driving stock prices in the solar industry or in many others.

Solar Breaks Oil Price Dependence

we need to understand that the solar market and the solar stocks are 2 different things, especially in the short term.
to read a comment like the one of sirfisup is quiet discouraging:"I must say that the writer is a pure amateur and knows very little about solar technology and where its heading. Sand is about one third of the earths natural resource and is the primary commodity to manufacture silicon. Solar technology efficiencies are improving significantly and of all the alternative energies is the cleanest form of energy. The writer must have very little regrad for the emerging economies of China and India and unfortunately a very poor understanding of the fundamentals of capitalism. The only reason why you haven't received many more retort replies is simply because you are an idiot."
this comment itself shows very low intelligance and no knowledge of the stock market and how it works. from the comment one might assume that solar stocks are heading only one way and will not have pullbacks of any degree. this is not the case.
investing in stocks is sensitive to many outside variables like the availability of money (interest rates), alternative investments, sentiment, political climate and many others.
they all translate to valuations. when everything is good we can get double the valuation relative to the bad times.
the fact that silicon will get cheaper and that the solar technologies are advancing will carry risk that is as high as is the opportunity. the solar industry will be commoditized all along the food chane. while costs will be much lower so will go the ASP's.
history shows us how things work and we will be fools to ignore it.
while i am a huge solar fan, i will never close my eyes and ears to the presence of risk. any growth industry carries risk and investing in stocks in these industries is also risky.
i can only wish investing was as simple as some of the commentators make it seem. we were all much richer. since it's not, please invest with your head and not with your heart. it is way more profitable (i started investing with my heart and fell in love with investments and it didn't work well. sometimes it's worst than a divorce as you can pay much more than half) :)

It's Not Easy Being Evergreen - Cramer's Lightning Round (7/9/08)

i just wonder if anyone here follows cramer.
i used his picks as a contrarian. it always seems to me that he is picking longs at the highs and shorts at the bottom.
2 years back i saved tons of money on CEPH using his advice. when he said to buy when the stock went to 80 i ran to the hills and it took a nose dive.
it also seems to me he is like day trader. one day he says FSLR is huge buy, next day he says CEO sells tons of shares so we don't like FSLR, few weeks go by and again he loves FSLR.
i wonder if someone is calculating his returns - it will be very interesting to see if he's in the green or if he's a consistant loser.

A Second Try for Evergreen Solar

technical analysis is just another name for probability play. for each chart we can calculate a formula, but it's much easier done with visual aids like charts than with formulas.
so basically ernie is right. when we enter a technical play we have a given probability for it to fail and to reach a certain price target.
i for one haven't seen a system that never failed, but i'll be very thankful if someone here can show me this system :)

A Second Try for Evergreen Solar

looks like a very good buy on the technicals. was able to stay above the breakout at the close. the slim jim pattern suggests a move to at least 16 in the next 60-90 days