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Alan 'Not-Me' Greenspan Strikes Again

do you really think the problem is oil prices only?
it's commodities in general or better say natural resources.
regarding the past, nothing could have stopped a big crash from happening, it's the nature of the beast. when everything was priced with no economic logic the only question was the timing and the longer it would have take to be resolved the harder the outcome.
when markets go up people become careless and invest even what they don't have. the people tend to forget the risk element and valuations and just feel the joy of winning. this can take years and most people can't stay out for years and if they are more savvy and know how to use derivatives to protect themselves they tend to push that aside also after few times since it didn't "work".
when judgement day comes it usually comes in two stages. the first is when all are in denial they say it's just another correction and they get invested even more. when the reality showes that economical conditions changed for whatever reason the fear is taking hold and everyone is rushing out. IT IS FAST AND FURIOUS. pain is everywhere and mostly with the people that were the greediest.
i'm not saying that greenspan or anyone else was right with what they did, I SAY THEY SHOULD HAVE DONE IT EARLIER. the reason for that is the nature of us as humans, or at least most of us, to get to greedy. money is pumped into the systems and we tend to borrow to much and save too little. we are the GENERATION OF THE CONSUMERS.
at the stage we are in we have lot of economies around the world that are growing real fast. it may be good for multinational companies, especially when the dollar is getting weaker, but there is real inflation. it might not be measured with the standard measures of CORE inflation, but when you buy food, electricity, water... you just keep paying more and the growing economies insure that the prices of natural resources won't come down but up in the long run.
there are few possible scenarios that might occur because of that but it's another discussion and no one can really tell what the real outcome will be. it goes from nothing special to a war on these resources between regions and inside the regions.
what we can do as rational investors is to keep investing smartly. keep our risk to normal levels. if we have an 401k that carries that much risk we need to reduce the risk.
anyway this is only my take on things and only sharing it with others. the final decision is for each individual on thier own.
i wish you all the best of luck and good investing and happy new year in advance.

Alan 'Not-Me' Greenspan Strikes Again

accountability is the name of the game in every aspect in life.
greenspan may have been a contributor to the problem like many other factors, but the simple truth is that markets like other factors in life move in circles and history teaches us that things repeat themselves.
as students of this history we should know not to fall into the traps and even profit from them.
is there anyone out there that really believed that the rates will stay at 1%? and if they didn't did they take the risk of rising rates into account? and if they did any decieded to do nothing who is to blame?
if someone got hurt from this crisis i feel for them, but let's try and make the most from it for the future. let's not blame anyone and anything and think of that like a force of nature and see what WE did wrong. maybe it was wrong to listen to all these pundits, maybe it was wrong to put money into something that looks very cheap in historical perspective etc..
the bottom line is THERE IS NOTHING GOOD ECONOMICALLY WITH BLAMING EXTERNAL FORCES. it may be good for phsycological purposes, but we can to a shrink for that. in order to have the means to go to the shrink we only need to focus on the economical view and it says WHEN AND IF WE LOSE IT'S OUR FAULT AND WE NEED TO LEARN FROM IT AND NEVER REPEAT IT. those that will act upon it will thrive and those that will bash everyone and everything instead of learning and correcting the mistakes will use lots of energy that could have been used to become better in things that we do. PUT YOUR ENERGY INTO GOOD USE AND DON'T USE IT TO NEGATIVITIES, it is a waste of time and has no economic benefits, maybe only that you won't need to pay the shrink after all :)