Color On Las Vegas Sands Earnings Miss [View article]
I dont agree with the author and agree with CP757. LVS is creating the competition and not suffering because of others adding capacity. The author pointing out that the PE and div yield is better than its competitors then stating that investors should avoid the stock makes no sense at all especially when you add in the factors pointed out by CP757 with which I am familiar with. I think the endless doommongers and a few bad stats have spooked LVS and pretty much most investors over the past few months. I also read the transcript which is interesting and I agree that the low hold should come back to normal levels...it is just statistics and these will be consistent over time and not necessarily every quarter. I am building a large position. I lived in Singapore for 3 years and visited Macau a number of times and also understand the culture in Asia. This stock will outperform IMHO.
I am also buying and would think the institutional investors would also take advantage of this dip. Having lived in Singapore for 3 years and making several trips to Macau, I understand the Asian culture around gambling. Add the capacity expansion that is ramping up and their future development plans and opportunities, this is about the best bet out there.
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Yes thanks; good article. I would be curious what a thorough liquidation analysis would come up with. All these analyses so far are viewing the company as operating businesses and once these result in values far less than book it gets irrational and you have to question whether it is better to stop operating entirely and sell it off in small pieces. Trading at 42% of book is extreme and even valuing the company in the low/mid 20s is still not much better than 50-55% of book. If a true liquidation analysis came up with a similar result, it would have to be attributed to primarily unrecorded insurance liabilities because then you would have removed the negative affects of management confidence and furture operating environment etc. Even with the peculiarities of insurance accounting I wouldn't think it could push the liquidation value down this far into the mid 20s. Would need an expert on insurance accounting to comment. Just food for thought. I would hate to see the liquidation of a 200 year old American company.
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
I have not seen the CS analysis you mention but something does not make sense. CS is basically concluding then that the current discount to book is waranted whether the company is broken up or stays as is, or in other words that the current stock price of 21 and the CS break up estimate of about the same price really is the fair value. Isn't this implying that the company has unrecorded fair value adjustments, that will wipe out an enormous amount of book value so considerating this, HIG is in effect comparatively priced with its peers? Or in other words, the reported book value is really not correct. CS with a higher forward target is acknowledging their projected earnings so they are challenging HIG's true fair value today. Insurance accounting is very complex but the gap between book and fair value should not be so large.
The 13D really highlighted the problem with analyst coverage which was an interesting angle I had not picked up on and I wonder if that has anything to do the the harsh conclusion of CS. Investors and analysts have pummeled this company. A lot of good points have been raised by Tom and others in this email trail but there is still a massive disconnect between current price and the perception of its true book and fair value.
I would like to believe Paulsen's fair value analysis but I'm with many of the others that would prefer the investor community to start recognizing this to get this company trading more sensibly without breaking it up, but the lack of investor patience is really showing now.
Jamie Dimon (JPM) continues to rail against over-regulation, telling Fox Business that policies coming out of Washington have led to a slower and rockier recovery: "It could have been better. I do think we have made this recovery slower and worse by uncoordinated policy, the debt ceiling crisis and tons of other things that were misguided." [View news story]
153972 So much to respond to in your post but I dont have time at the moment. You are reading way too much into my simple response to the topic....the policies coming out of Washington have led to a slower and rockier recovery... The causes of this mess can be discussed forever and the banks have deserved a lot of what they have gotten but the gov action is slowing down and constraining banks which does slow the recovery.
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Tom, thanks. Yes this will be very interesting and I will definately follow this story. It appears almost certain shareholders should benefit. It is a question of to what extent, how quickly and whether Paulson or the investment banks can disproportianately benefit.
Jamie Dimon (JPM) continues to rail against over-regulation, telling Fox Business that policies coming out of Washington have led to a slower and rockier recovery: "It could have been better. I do think we have made this recovery slower and worse by uncoordinated policy, the debt ceiling crisis and tons of other things that were misguided." [View news story]
I fully agree. The attack on the banks has been way over-done and the results have totally slowed the recovery. The banks were just one of a number of participants. There were millions of people who voluntarily took out loans that they really could not afford and there have been truth in lending disclosures as part of the closing process for many years. The unrelenting attack on banks is similar to going after gun shops for gun crime. The government has every day to propose balanced regulation and after an outcry they typically go too far with unintended consequences and in the banks case has resulted in excessive litigation wiping out shareholder wealth (including damaging the retirement accounts of many Americans), scaling back services, reducing staff, and curbing lending to individuals and businesses...which I agree with Dimon is slowing down the recovery. I also work globally and understand the ease of moving business out of America and you are right: gov action will ultimately push out or handicap another critical American industry.
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Interesting 13D. Despite the arguments for and against, don't you think he will ultimately get his way? I would think he would start trying to get directors replaced if there is no clear commitment to move forward and I would think the institutional players would probably back him. Your thoughts?
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) created $17/share of value in 2011, while nat-gas prices decreased 40%, according to its most recent presentation. While the $17 of value creation isn't too far from CHK's entire current share price of $21.70, shares have fallen almost 21% over the past year. (submitted by Devon Shire) [View news story]
Marc, why do you think we have failed so badly as a nation to take advantage of the low cost and high availability of nat gas? People often cite big-oil cos and vested interests being a large factor but there should be such upside for those that improve technologies and use of nat gas that smaller companies would just work around them. Stating the obvious, getting off oil imports would completely alter global politics yet our own government seems to be an impediment. There would also be significant job creation by accelerating the infrastructure changes for increased nat gas use. I just dont get it.
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Tom, thanks. Really appreciate the comments. I'm also an accountant but not an ins specialist but still follow the numbers quite well. The stock prive vs valuation still suggests that many believe this company might not make it which seems overly bearish. The detail numbers and overall economy to me do not support such a high level of pessimism. Even BofA is crawling out of what I believe is a much more severe situation.
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Tom Why is the market punishing this stock so severely? Of course, Life is doing poorly, the interest rate environment is poor for them, and there have been some recent P&C losses but this company really seems to be singled out. The discount to book is extraordinary and the company is generally considered to be well managed. It is trading like it will go bankrupt yet they have survived every economic gyration for 200 years and even recently continue to build book value and gradually improve earnings. Scott
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Tom Why do you think this stock is being punished so severely? Of course its Life business is doing poorly, the interest rate environment is poor for them and they have taken some P&C hits but the company really seems to be singled out. The PB discount is extraordinary and it is trading like the market thinks it will go out of business. This company has managed the ups and downs over 200 years and is generally considered well managed. They continue to build book value and earnings are generally improving.
Color On Las Vegas Sands Earnings Miss [View article]
Las Vegas Sands Management Discusses Q2 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
The 13D really highlighted the problem with analyst coverage which was an interesting angle I had not picked up on and I wonder if that has anything to do the the harsh conclusion of CS. Investors and analysts have pummeled this company. A lot of good points have been raised by Tom and others in this email trail but there is still a massive disconnect between current price and the perception of its true book and fair value.
I would like to believe Paulsen's fair value analysis but I'm with many of the others that would prefer the investor community to start recognizing this to get this company trading more sensibly without breaking it up, but the lack of investor patience is really showing now.
Jamie Dimon (JPM) continues to rail against over-regulation, telling Fox Business that policies coming out of Washington have led to a slower and rockier recovery: "It could have been better. I do think we have made this recovery slower and worse by uncoordinated policy, the debt ceiling crisis and tons of other things that were misguided." [View news story]
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Jamie Dimon (JPM) continues to rail against over-regulation, telling Fox Business that policies coming out of Washington have led to a slower and rockier recovery: "It could have been better. I do think we have made this recovery slower and worse by uncoordinated policy, the debt ceiling crisis and tons of other things that were misguided." [View news story]
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) created $17/share of value in 2011, while nat-gas prices decreased 40%, according to its most recent presentation. While the $17 of value creation isn't too far from CHK's entire current share price of $21.70, shares have fallen almost 21% over the past year. (submitted by Devon Shire) [View news story]
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Why is the market punishing this stock so severely? Of course, Life is doing poorly, the interest rate environment is poor for them, and there have been some recent P&C losses but this company really seems to be singled out. The discount to book is extraordinary and the company is generally considered to be well managed. It is trading like it will go bankrupt yet they have survived every economic gyration for 200 years and even recently continue to build book value and gradually improve earnings.
Scott
Hartford Financial Will Do Fine Without John Paulson's Advice [View article]
Why do you think this stock is being punished so severely? Of course its Life business is doing poorly, the interest rate environment is poor for them and they have taken some P&C hits but the company really seems to be singled out. The PB discount is extraordinary and it is trading like the market thinks it will go out of business. This company has managed the ups and downs over 200 years and is generally considered well managed. They continue to build book value and earnings are generally improving.