Pj568's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/127562/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/170597-why-hoarding-cash-can-destroy-shareholder-value?source=feed#comment-740805 740805
A quote from CFO.com article "Living with a Scarlet Audit Letter" www.cfo.com/article.cf...

"Last year, 21% of companies registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission had their going-concern status questioned — the highest proportion of companies this decade, according to research firm Audit Analytics. Moreover, the number of businesses filing for Chapter 11 increased 113% in the first half of this year, compared to the same period in 2008.

Experts predict a similar percentage of going-concern opinions will be filed for 2009 10-Ks. "Companies that got a going-concern opinion last year — if they're still around — probably have not worked their way out [of their current condition]," says Rick Ueltschy, managing executive of accounting firm Crowe Horwath's audit and financial advisory group. "And we'll see more companies that have continued to have financial conditions deteriorate over the year added to the list," he says

Indeed, the prospect has finance executives biting their nails. Nearly one quarter of 846 CFOs and controllers surveyed by Grant Thornton said they were more worried about the ability of their companies to continue as a going concern than they were a year ago."

Add in the liquidity turmoil and that the depressed prices present an excellent growth opportunity for the prudent and the great waste from the previous years leverage buy backs and it seems like a good move.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:31:42 -0500
A quote from CFO.com article "Living with a Scarlet Audit Letter" www.cfo.com/article.cf...

"Last year, 21% of companies registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission had their going-concern status questioned — the highest proportion of companies this decade, according to research firm Audit Analytics. Moreover, the number of businesses filing for Chapter 11 increased 113% in the first half of this year, compared to the same period in 2008.

Experts predict a similar percentage of going-concern opinions will be filed for 2009 10-Ks. "Companies that got a going-concern opinion last year — if they're still around — probably have not worked their way out [of their current condition]," says Rick Ueltschy, managing executive of accounting firm Crowe Horwath's audit and financial advisory group. "And we'll see more companies that have continued to have financial conditions deteriorate over the year added to the list," he says

Indeed, the prospect has finance executives biting their nails. Nearly one quarter of 846 CFOs and controllers surveyed by Grant Thornton said they were more worried about the ability of their companies to continue as a going concern than they were a year ago."

Add in the liquidity turmoil and that the depressed prices present an excellent growth opportunity for the prudent and the great waste from the previous years leverage buy backs and it seems like a good move.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167493-e-trade-a-solid-deep-value-stock?source=feed#comment-723750 723750
One possible approach - The FDIC report for June 30 shows E*Trade Bank with cash of 5.8B. They don't have unlimited access to this as E-Trade transactions with its Bank are restricted so how does their cash have any meaning except for banking operations.

One guess as to cash available would be to take total cash of 6.7B (10-Q) minus Bank cash 5.8 to arrive at 900M (although the parent would probably have some cash at the bank nor do we know what restricted cash is held at other banks). This answer may not even be close but I would think it more accurate than 6.7B

E-Trade could disclose if they wanted to be transparent as to the issue. ]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:00:24 -0400
One possible approach - The FDIC report for June 30 shows E*Trade Bank with cash of 5.8B. They don't have unlimited access to this as E-Trade transactions with its Bank are restricted so how does their cash have any meaning except for banking operations.

One guess as to cash available would be to take total cash of 6.7B (10-Q) minus Bank cash 5.8 to arrive at 900M (although the parent would probably have some cash at the bank nor do we know what restricted cash is held at other banks). This answer may not even be close but I would think it more accurate than 6.7B

E-Trade could disclose if they wanted to be transparent as to the issue. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167493-e-trade-a-solid-deep-value-stock?source=feed#comment-723520 723520
Parent Co only cash at 12/31/08 was 183M.]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:00:28 -0400
Parent Co only cash at 12/31/08 was 183M.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167493-e-trade-a-solid-deep-value-stock?source=feed#comment-723484 723484 Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:46:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167493-e-trade-a-solid-deep-value-stock?source=feed#comment-722383 722383
Today with the diluted 2.8B shares (greater by 7x) and keeping the same 17 pe earnings would be around 30cents if selling at 5 or 60cents if selling at 10. Therefore we're talking net income of 840M or 1.68B.

The most money TD Ameritrade (AMTD) ever made was 803M. So realistically how can ETFC get to even 5.]]> Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:07:31 -0400
Today with the diluted 2.8B shares (greater by 7x) and keeping the same 17 pe earnings would be around 30cents if selling at 5 or 60cents if selling at 10. Therefore we're talking net income of 840M or 1.68B.

The most money TD Ameritrade (AMTD) ever made was 803M. So realistically how can ETFC get to even 5.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165032-who-owns-the-derivatives-market?source=feed#comment-705003 705003
Is it correct that the problems are only (mainly) in the naked CDS positions ?

If CDS accounts for 15% of the total derivative contracts then that is the maximum naked positions on a notional basis. What then is the net positions? If unknown then what is the estimated net?

Since this has been prime news since 2007 what has been the progress,if any, by the fed or accountants in ascertaining net positions, recognition of losses and making adequate disclosure?]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 10:33:15 -0400
Is it correct that the problems are only (mainly) in the naked CDS positions ?

If CDS accounts for 15% of the total derivative contracts then that is the maximum naked positions on a notional basis. What then is the net positions? If unknown then what is the estimated net?

Since this has been prime news since 2007 what has been the progress,if any, by the fed or accountants in ascertaining net positions, recognition of losses and making adequate disclosure?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159284-time-to-take-the-l-out-of-lbo?source=feed#comment-658158 658158
Today capital requirements are being revised for banks, tougher covenants issued, revised loan standards, non consolidated SPE's being brought back onto the balance sheet, downward adjusted market valuations for high leveraged firms, liquidity concerns, fair market adjustments, and attention to ROI's and ROA's as opposed to gross earnings are all having their effect on the ability of lenders to issue loans and entities to use a high degree of leverage.]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 10:06:53 -0400
Today capital requirements are being revised for banks, tougher covenants issued, revised loan standards, non consolidated SPE's being brought back onto the balance sheet, downward adjusted market valuations for high leveraged firms, liquidity concerns, fair market adjustments, and attention to ROI's and ROA's as opposed to gross earnings are all having their effect on the ability of lenders to issue loans and entities to use a high degree of leverage.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155184-huron-consulting-getting-too-close-to-its-roots?source=feed#comment-627279 627279 Wed, 12 Aug 2009 16:30:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150313-can-we-get-back-to-stock-picking-now?source=feed#comment-597974 597974
"And sure, let's just get rid of GAAP and start using EBITDA instead"

You missed my sarcasm. BSX is already half way there as they adjust earnings for standard amortization. ]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 11:04:52 -0400
"And sure, let's just get rid of GAAP and start using EBITDA instead"

You missed my sarcasm. BSX is already half way there as they adjust earnings for standard amortization. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150313-can-we-get-back-to-stock-picking-now?source=feed#comment-597639 597639
Writers don't even know what earnings are being adjusted for and don't care if its proper or not. The 20 cents/share referred to is due to BSX adding back 7 cents of standard amortization exp. The next step could be to start reporting EBITDA and forget GAAP altogether.]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 07:07:20 -0400
Writers don't even know what earnings are being adjusted for and don't care if its proper or not. The 20 cents/share referred to is due to BSX adding back 7 cents of standard amortization exp. The next step could be to start reporting EBITDA and forget GAAP altogether.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149255-boston-scientific-poised-to-attain-investment-grade-rating?source=feed#comment-595189 595189
"Obama to meet with small businesses - GE, Pfizer, Chrysler, Citigroup and GM to discuss the Stimulus Package."]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 12:10:58 -0400
"Obama to meet with small businesses - GE, Pfizer, Chrysler, Citigroup and GM to discuss the Stimulus Package."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144334-a-plea-for-better-balance-sheets?source=feed#comment-556285 556285
Sure intangibles reflect acquisition activity but not all acquisitions are bad. Those with recent acquisitions are more at risk than older one, especially if they purchased financial assets during the last three or four years.

One should first consider it as a fixed asset cost and analyze from there. Yes, investment in fixed assets has an affect on firm structure and intangibles are subject to write downs. There are big differences in structure between service companies, banks and manufacturers. Liquidity, profitability and leverage are more the issue today. ]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 13:24:34 -0400
Sure intangibles reflect acquisition activity but not all acquisitions are bad. Those with recent acquisitions are more at risk than older one, especially if they purchased financial assets during the last three or four years.

One should first consider it as a fixed asset cost and analyze from there. Yes, investment in fixed assets has an affect on firm structure and intangibles are subject to write downs. There are big differences in structure between service companies, banks and manufacturers. Liquidity, profitability and leverage are more the issue today. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144341-how-e-trade-is-trying-to-survive-in-the-tarp-era?source=feed#comment-556226 556226
Does anyone know the tax area well enough to comment on whether they might be required to establish large tax valuation account to reduce the 1B in deferred tax assets now carried on the balance sheet?]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 12:30:36 -0400
Does anyone know the tax area well enough to comment on whether they might be required to establish large tax valuation account to reduce the 1B in deferred tax assets now carried on the balance sheet?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143904-analysts-will-soon-upgrade-e-trade?source=feed#comment-551744 551744
So with the new share issued and with full conversion on the new convertible debt the number of shares increase from 600M to 2B.

Citadel now has around a 20% interest and after the new issue and conversion will have a 40-45% interest.]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 09:08:28 -0400
So with the new share issued and with full conversion on the new convertible debt the number of shares increase from 600M to 2B.

Citadel now has around a 20% interest and after the new issue and conversion will have a 40-45% interest.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140866-banks-loss-reserves-can-t-keep-pace-with-troubled-loans?source=feed#comment-528172 528172
Isn't this pretty much what we've been told was going to happen as those resets come due? ]]> Tue, 02 Jun 2009 11:47:47 -0400
Isn't this pretty much what we've been told was going to happen as those resets come due? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138682-debunking-citron-s-hit-job-on-world-acceptance-corp-part-2?source=feed#comment-511617 511617 Wed, 20 May 2009 13:29:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138732-bank-of-america-raises-a-whole-lotta-money?source=feed#comment-511587 511587
The answer is conflicting news. BAC demonstrated that it could raise needed capital with offering only a 9% discount. You also had a dilutive effect. With a non distressed company one would expect a fall in price to the new issue amount but BAC is a distressed company in a distressed market and who knows what the price will do.

To interpret, the event the media mavens would just say that the market had already priced in an even greater dilution that what actually occurred or that we know that BAC can obtain the capital needed to go forward. Take your pick. ]]> Wed, 20 May 2009 13:16:54 -0400
The answer is conflicting news. BAC demonstrated that it could raise needed capital with offering only a 9% discount. You also had a dilutive effect. With a non distressed company one would expect a fall in price to the new issue amount but BAC is a distressed company in a distressed market and who knows what the price will do.

To interpret, the event the media mavens would just say that the market had already priced in an even greater dilution that what actually occurred or that we know that BAC can obtain the capital needed to go forward. Take your pick. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137140-goldman-s-60-million-settlement-why-is-goldman-getting-the-blame?source=feed#comment-500647 500647 Tue, 12 May 2009 12:44:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137058-understanding-risk?source=feed#comment-500422 500422
There are some great formulas available for each but as in all of finance they have to be subjectively applied and we often misinterpret and misapply based on our knowledge level. As we constantly see even the best academics and investors are often wrong at some point in time.

Can a trader/investor adopt a philosophy and stick to it even though the market doesn't agree? Is that even the right approach? It seems more like we are required to go with the market using just a portion of our philosophy but be able to realize when the market shifts. Being able to manage the money management side (our allocations and affordable loss) is probably the best we can do. Even these are Herculean tasks for us mere mortals.

]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 11:05:49 -0400
There are some great formulas available for each but as in all of finance they have to be subjectively applied and we often misinterpret and misapply based on our knowledge level. As we constantly see even the best academics and investors are often wrong at some point in time.

Can a trader/investor adopt a philosophy and stick to it even though the market doesn't agree? Is that even the right approach? It seems more like we are required to go with the market using just a portion of our philosophy but be able to realize when the market shifts. Being able to manage the money management side (our allocations and affordable loss) is probably the best we can do. Even these are Herculean tasks for us mere mortals.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137140-goldman-s-60-million-settlement-why-is-goldman-getting-the-blame?source=feed#comment-500295 500295
Unfortunately most firms just consider these wrongdoing settlements as a cost of doing business as there are frequent occurrences throughout the industry. With so many instances of wrong doing, i.e. auction rate securities for one, you would think the Wall Street firms would have learned something.

Well for now they have decimated any trust these firms previously had as their cumulative actions have destroyed the securitization markets upon which we all have depended. Thanks guys you are truly the best and brightest.
]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 10:06:55 -0400
Unfortunately most firms just consider these wrongdoing settlements as a cost of doing business as there are frequent occurrences throughout the industry. With so many instances of wrong doing, i.e. auction rate securities for one, you would think the Wall Street firms would have learned something.

Well for now they have decimated any trust these firms previously had as their cumulative actions have destroyed the securitization markets upon which we all have depended. Thanks guys you are truly the best and brightest.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133562-citigroup-levitate-above-the-frenzy?source=feed#comment-480502 480502
1) Future losses expected
2) Current dilution not fully recognized
3) Further dilution expected
3) No transparency in the sector
4) Institutional and national deleveraging still occurring
5) Insolvency
6) Financial crisis is not over
7) Still in a recession
]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 08:19:59 -0400
1) Future losses expected
2) Current dilution not fully recognized
3) Further dilution expected
3) No transparency in the sector
4) Institutional and national deleveraging still occurring
5) Insolvency
6) Financial crisis is not over
7) Still in a recession
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132981-paulson-changes-his-tune-on-bofa-and-merrill?source=feed#comment-476238 476238 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 14:54:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132977-blaming-bankers-when-government-is-really-at-fault?source=feed#comment-475907 475907 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:14:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132969-bank-stress-tests-tangible-common-equity-a-critical-metric?source=feed#comment-475784 475784
My question is where have all the experts, banks execs and other corporate gurus been to have ignored this. Are there really any true experts in our corporate suites?

Sadly to say, the mega banks didn't want to cut common dividends until the Feds forced them.

This whole thing is just pathetic.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:20:13 -0400
My question is where have all the experts, banks execs and other corporate gurus been to have ignored this. Are there really any true experts in our corporate suites?

Sadly to say, the mega banks didn't want to cut common dividends until the Feds forced them.

This whole thing is just pathetic.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131991-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-470807 470807 BSX): Q1 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $2.0B (-1.8%) in-line. (PR)

Don't you just hate it when the GAAP loss gets in the way of those good profit numbers? ]]> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 08:05:29 -0400 BSX): Q1 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $2.0B (-1.8%) in-line. (PR)

Don't you just hate it when the GAAP loss gets in the way of those good profit numbers? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130457-where-have-all-the-buybacks-gone?source=feed#comment-459000 459000 Fri, 10 Apr 2009 12:15:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128802-fair-value-accounting-instills-exactly-the-wrong-mindset-in-bankers?source=feed#comment-447675 447675 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 08:41:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128704-mark-to-market-of-course-not-at-par-that-s-par-for-the-course?source=feed#comment-446232 446232
A point of concern is in the disussion of cash flow for securities. The article implies discounted cash flow is always a solid measurable number when in reality it is based on several assumptions (defaults, LTV, prepayments, discount rate).

Perhaps you can enlighten us with a follow up article on the subject. ]]> Tue, 31 Mar 2009 09:18:52 -0400
A point of concern is in the disussion of cash flow for securities. The article implies discounted cash flow is always a solid measurable number when in reality it is based on several assumptions (defaults, LTV, prepayments, discount rate).

Perhaps you can enlighten us with a follow up article on the subject. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128394-big-debt-and-big-returns-could-be-spurring-this-rally?source=feed#comment-445179 445179 Mon, 30 Mar 2009 10:56:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127160-boston-scientific-should-not-only-survive-but-thrive?source=feed#comment-436058 436058
Also they'll probably take on additional debt during the year as they have to settle the 750M JNJ & 250M Medtronic patent litigation they lost during 08. I think they posted bonds and have yet to actually pay anything. Staying on the sidelines here. ]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 23:45:54 -0400
Also they'll probably take on additional debt during the year as they have to settle the 750M JNJ & 250M Medtronic patent litigation they lost during 08. I think they posted bonds and have yet to actually pay anything. Staying on the sidelines here. ]]>