Pj568

Forensic Analysis of Lehman Problems

The buyback amount that actually occured in 07 was slightly less than the previous three years. They were just clueless which doesn't bode well for their continued existence.

Is Bank of America Rethinking Countrywide's Value?

Understanding that a 22B gross write down ends up at approximately 14B after tax, which takes book equity to zero, the question becomes which creditors are willing to settle for less outside of a formal forced liquidation plan. Will it be the general creditors, the bond holders or the Fed? They can't mark it down unless they get actual relief somehow, can they?

Ken Lewis's Call Option on Countrywide

Given the 3rd quarter closing date, it seems like the real MAC clause is whether CFC can avoid any type of liquidity or capital crisis during the next 9 months or so.

With Countrwide "Contained," Is Washington Mutual Next?

Agree with a slow play. WM has 235B net held in portfolio that doesn't get marked down until delinquent, unlike the I Banks where they're "marked to market" as a security instrument, not as an individual loans. Expect to see steadily increasing write downs.

With Countrwide "Contained," Is Washington Mutual Next?

Too early for WaMu to be next as then have't had a crisis event yet and remain overvalued. Maybe when the price drops by half.

Countrywide: Still Alive, Apparently

Sounds like bad news for that Florida government fund owning several hundred million in certificates of deposit.