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hyloka
2 Comments
Yahoo to Microsoft: No, Thank You
For the year, since January 2nd close, Google has declined from $685 a share to $516 a share, about a 25% drop. Yahoo closed on January 2nd at $23.72. A 25% discount on its stock would put it at $17.79.
Microsoft's offer represents a 63% premium on what a Yahoo share would have been worth if Microsoft had never made the offer and Yahoo’s stock followed the same trajectory as Google’s stock has on the year.
There are some reports that Yahoo thinks that it is currently worth $40 a share.
A $40 price would represent a premium of 125% over what Yahoo’s stock would have been on Friday if it followed the Google trajectory and would represent a gain on the year of 68%. Or, to put it another way, in Yahoo's world where value squandered through mismanagement and overall market decline magically reappears, Yahoo stock should be at $40 and Google stock should now be around $1150.
Google may be interested in trying to toe the antitrust line to save the enemy that it shot if it can thwart Microsoft in the process, but Google would probably be content to just let Yahoo bleed out on its own if Microsoft takes its bandages and walks away. That's exactly what might happen if Yahoo insists that it's value is so far off from what the maket or even a generous bidder puts it at.
Challenging the Current Console Business Model
First, nothing runs in a "cloud." Internet applications run on servers. Even if you create an open standard for hardware and software on the client side and remove the need for a traditional "console" game developers would have to program their games to work on any possible combination of back-end systems. Maybe the pain could be minimized with virtualization or an added layer of software between the server hardware and OS and the gaming application, maybe not.
Second, and more problematic is bandwidth. These days you can have a console in the middle of Minnesota, in a home with dial-up access and the kid on the couch can play Mario/Halo/Metal Gear just the same as the kid in Japan with a 100MBs connection. In order to do anything with AI/realistic graphics, you'd have to have serious processing power on the server side an no latency in the communication between the person on the couch and the servers. Otherwise all you're going to get are slow games of chess or other casual games.
So, wishful thinking Bruce, but even assuming the server side could get worked out and companies agreed on a client interface standard what this generation of consoles do (even the relatively anemic Wii) couldn't be replicated with a server/client system and today's net speeds for more than a handful of people with uber fast connections and if games continue on their path towards better graphics and AI, it'll only be less likely in the future