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    • NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing [view article]
      I doubt if anyone is reading these comments any longer, but I have to add my final opinion. Many have added some great comments and references to some good articles and facts. I appreciate those inputs very much. I'm lucky to have a great house in an area that is still appreciating in value, yet I work 3000 miles away from that property here in Washington DC. I'm glad the property values are coming down here because I want to buy a second property. I have found many great deals on forclosures, and I can buy with 0% down and even have the bank pay for the closing costs, etc. This is a great time to buy, but we still have at least a year before there is any sense of a bottom to the market. It will be interesting to see if the prediction of the baby boomers movement will effect the market. May 15 06:35 PM
    • NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing [view article]
      I don't see house prices reaching the 1999 level or $100K median price. The bubble didn't start accelerating until 2004, so I don't see prices or median going below the 2003/4 level. I think that is significant because prices doubled or more from 2003 to the peek in 2006/7. Thus, I would not buy any property in a bubble area unless it was down to 1/2 of its peak value. I also don't see the bottom happening until the middle of 2009. In 1991/2 the bubble areas dropped to 0.5-0.6 of their peak values of 1989/90 and didn't recover to their previous highs until 1999/2000. This bubble is about the same as the previous bubble, so I don't see prices back to their highs until 2013-2015. Also, the opportunity for rental investment is fuzzy, since many home owners under threat are offering rooms for rent at discount prices. It is unclear if the consumer will take advantage of that opportunity. Personally, I do not think the average consumer would feel comfortable renting a room in a house with the owner there. This philosophy is just an extension of the reason why so many commuters travel to work alone in their cars. Everone values their privacy too much to share their space with strangers or acquantances. Thus, I tend to agree with the author that there may be an opportunity for rental investments, but with a bit more caution. Finally, many have correctly pointed out that there is a large percentage of the USA that never experienced the real estate bubble, and are therefore exempt from the current correction. Final observation: during the last real estate bubble, most people lost their interest in real estate in the 1990's and turned to the stock market. This created the stock market bubble which drove the NASDAQ to nearly 5000. After the stock market bubble burst in 2000/2001, real estate began to spread its fever in 2003. If 9/11 had not happend perhaps the real estate fever would have occured sooner than 2003. Lesson: this cycle between real estate and the stock market seems to repeat. I would like others oppinion on this topic. May 13 02:55 PM
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