Enzio von Pfeil's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/1277/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/16199/comments?source=feed#comment-61300 61300
My only concern is that China plays are going to get wounded if US Congress forces China to revalue. This month, two bills could be decided on. I have posted an article on my website enziosclcock.com, suggesting that China's trade surplus has NOTHING to do with its exchange rate, but EVERYTHING to do with multinational corporations producing in China (thus replacing imports) and exporting from (cheap) China. Have a read and forward that note to your policy friends, especially those in Beijing and in Washington! Tragically, globalisation has left trade balances behind!]]> Thu, 31 Aug 2006 23:48:58 -0400
My only concern is that China plays are going to get wounded if US Congress forces China to revalue. This month, two bills could be decided on. I have posted an article on my website enziosclcock.com, suggesting that China's trade surplus has NOTHING to do with its exchange rate, but EVERYTHING to do with multinational corporations producing in China (thus replacing imports) and exporting from (cheap) China. Have a read and forward that note to your policy friends, especially those in Beijing and in Washington! Tragically, globalisation has left trade balances behind!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/14692/comments?source=feed#comment-56763 56763
"But after a huge run up, I'm quite cautious about the near term performance of the Indian stock market, even after their big selloff in the last month or two."


India's Economic Time is still o k - but the RBI is still printing money too generously, driving up inflation and thus yields. At some point I expect a hefty tightening, one that will worsen India's Economic Time and the economy's profits outlook.]]> Tue, 08 Aug 2006 05:48:32 -0400
"But after a huge run up, I'm quite cautious about the near term performance of the Indian stock market, even after their big selloff in the last month or two."


India's Economic Time is still o k - but the RBI is still printing money too generously, driving up inflation and thus yields. At some point I expect a hefty tightening, one that will worsen India's Economic Time and the economy's profits outlook.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/14884/comments?source=feed#comment-56387 56387 We suggested to our clients back in June 04 that Fed Funds would reach 6%: this has been the extent of previous tightening cycles.

I am afraid that Mr. Bush's juvenile militarism in the Muddle East, where he refuses to talk with the enemy such as Syria and refuses to give the military what it needs to fight the war, will depress the dollar further. That implies a bout of imported inflation, on top of those higher oil prices which he, the Texan oil boy, seems to be so in love with...]]> Sat, 05 Aug 2006 06:51:13 -0400 We suggested to our clients back in June 04 that Fed Funds would reach 6%: this has been the extent of previous tightening cycles.

I am afraid that Mr. Bush's juvenile militarism in the Muddle East, where he refuses to talk with the enemy such as Syria and refuses to give the military what it needs to fight the war, will depress the dollar further. That implies a bout of imported inflation, on top of those higher oil prices which he, the Texan oil boy, seems to be so in love with...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/15022/comments?source=feed#comment-56386 56386
Sounds like there is gloom ahead; I am looking for a similar bout of market violence as we had in May - when investors finallly moved out of denial and accepted that Fed Funds have to keep climbing. This time, the "moving out of denial" will be that investors see that Japan's growth outlook is NOT rosy at all, courtous of the dark clouds of the policy mix just discussed.]]> Sat, 05 Aug 2006 06:45:06 -0400
Sounds like there is gloom ahead; I am looking for a similar bout of market violence as we had in May - when investors finallly moved out of denial and accepted that Fed Funds have to keep climbing. This time, the "moving out of denial" will be that investors see that Japan's growth outlook is NOT rosy at all, courtous of the dark clouds of the policy mix just discussed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/15011/comments?source=feed#comment-56383 56383
The reason is simple: super powers run out of money defending their empires. Look at America's more recent military forays and you have tragic, live example....]]> Sat, 05 Aug 2006 06:40:37 -0400
The reason is simple: super powers run out of money defending their empires. Look at America's more recent military forays and you have tragic, live example....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/14962/comments?source=feed#comment-56382 56382
The only point that I would add: Peter Lynch always recommends that you make sure that the impact on the company's overall profits warrants the investment. In this case: can the China operations/profits of the Western (or indeed other Asian, etc !) companies influence that company's global profits significantly?]]> Sat, 05 Aug 2006 06:36:31 -0400
The only point that I would add: Peter Lynch always recommends that you make sure that the impact on the company's overall profits warrants the investment. In this case: can the China operations/profits of the Western (or indeed other Asian, etc !) companies influence that company's global profits significantly?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/14856/comments?source=feed#comment-56379 56379
My take is different: that next year, Japan has to raise its VAT considerably, as they on 7th July decided to cut their primary deficit to zero by 2011. We all know how badly the economy and market fared in 1989, when they introduced VAT, and in April, 1997, when they increased it. So one member of the tribe, the MOF, will oppose rate hikes on top of tax hikes.

Another member, the future PM, Abe, also will oppose: he won't want to start his stewardship by allowing Japan to dunk into recession yet again.

My favorite fx play: long Euro, long Pound, short yen.]]> Sat, 05 Aug 2006 06:29:25 -0400
My take is different: that next year, Japan has to raise its VAT considerably, as they on 7th July decided to cut their primary deficit to zero by 2011. We all know how badly the economy and market fared in 1989, when they introduced VAT, and in April, 1997, when they increased it. So one member of the tribe, the MOF, will oppose rate hikes on top of tax hikes.

Another member, the future PM, Abe, also will oppose: he won't want to start his stewardship by allowing Japan to dunk into recession yet again.

My favorite fx play: long Euro, long Pound, short yen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/13591/comments?source=feed#comment-53587 53587
Our concerns with Japan, however, lie elsewhere.]]> Mon, 17 Jul 2006 23:51:30 -0400
Our concerns with Japan, however, lie elsewhere.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/13683/comments?source=feed#comment-53586 53586
Here: "China will act to prevent overheating". This assumes that "China: can prevent overheating. And I dispute that "it" has this power. For one thing, Beijing is losing control over it provinces. That is because, secondly, everyone is growth-obsessed in the runup to the 17th Party Congress, a theme we are discussing widely with our investor clients. Thirdly, China really does have the tools to prevent overheating. Finally, I am perplexed: last year we talked about profitless growth due to massive capacity expansion; how all of that supply has shrivelled and we are facing inflationary pressures?]]> Mon, 17 Jul 2006 23:41:47 -0400
Here: "China will act to prevent overheating". This assumes that "China: can prevent overheating. And I dispute that "it" has this power. For one thing, Beijing is losing control over it provinces. That is because, secondly, everyone is growth-obsessed in the runup to the 17th Party Congress, a theme we are discussing widely with our investor clients. Thirdly, China really does have the tools to prevent overheating. Finally, I am perplexed: last year we talked about profitless growth due to massive capacity expansion; how all of that supply has shrivelled and we are facing inflationary pressures?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/12876/comments?source=feed#comment-52776 52776
My concern is the extent of the appreciation of the yuan. All politics are local - that one did NOT come from Sun Tzu or some Oriental, but from an Irishman, Tip O'Neill, in Congress! Why would China, that "emerginging superpower " (never heard such nonsense), allow itself to stoop to the whims of white folks in Washington?

My Economic Clock suggests that China's Economic Time is just fine - regardless of what happens to the yuan. So where I agree with Daivd is: yes, buy China ETFs, but for a different reason!]]> Tue, 11 Jul 2006 00:01:55 -0400
My concern is the extent of the appreciation of the yuan. All politics are local - that one did NOT come from Sun Tzu or some Oriental, but from an Irishman, Tip O'Neill, in Congress! Why would China, that "emerginging superpower " (never heard such nonsense), allow itself to stoop to the whims of white folks in Washington?

My Economic Clock suggests that China's Economic Time is just fine - regardless of what happens to the yuan. So where I agree with Daivd is: yes, buy China ETFs, but for a different reason!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/13031/comments?source=feed#comment-52726 52726 Sun, 09 Jul 2006 23:59:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/12395/comments?source=feed#comment-52550 52550 Get a good stock person to tell you what is mainly responsible for Japan's stock market performance. My guess, as a macro guy, is mainly the domestic plays.]]> Thu, 29 Jun 2006 02:33:51 -0400 Get a good stock person to tell you what is mainly responsible for Japan's stock market performance. My guess, as a macro guy, is mainly the domestic plays.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/12630/comments?source=feed#comment-52528 52528 Wed, 28 Jun 2006 03:03:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/12395/comments?source=feed#comment-52527 52527 Fully agreed. Who can guess what the US financial community will think if more FOMC tightening occurs? I've been suggesting Fed Funds of around 6% this year, so that would suggst slowdwn in America. For me, the further question is: must this unequivocally have a knock-on effect in Japan and thus its market, if Japanese growth is driven increasingly by domestic demand as opposed to exports. If my "domestic demand" story is right, then Japan has to be a screaming buy, courtesy of an ever-improving Economic Time....]]> Wed, 28 Jun 2006 02:59:10 -0400 Fully agreed. Who can guess what the US financial community will think if more FOMC tightening occurs? I've been suggesting Fed Funds of around 6% this year, so that would suggst slowdwn in America. For me, the further question is: must this unequivocally have a knock-on effect in Japan and thus its market, if Japanese growth is driven increasingly by domestic demand as opposed to exports. If my "domestic demand" story is right, then Japan has to be a screaming buy, courtesy of an ever-improving Economic Time....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/12302/comments?source=feed#comment-52507 52507 Tue, 27 Jun 2006 06:52:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/12543/comments?source=feed#comment-52506 52506 Only one comment on China: "tightening" does not work there as well as in mature economies. Reason: banks are run by politics, not by risk. This year and next China goes through one of its largest-ever shuffles of government postings. This means that if people want to at least keep their jobs or, better yet, get promoted, they had better have plenty of economic growth to show for it - whether at the township, county, or provincial level. At that level, the Party Members sitting in the local banks will tell their bankers to keep lending. So in my mind, China's growth obsession is going to override any form of monetary tightening. In simple talk: if the leaders don't create jobs (=employment), they themselves will lose their jobs! Implication: China's Economic Time remains growth- and thus investment-friendly.
So I'm not contradicting your wonderful analysis, just adding a political twist to it.]]> Tue, 27 Jun 2006 06:44:10 -0400 Only one comment on China: "tightening" does not work there as well as in mature economies. Reason: banks are run by politics, not by risk. This year and next China goes through one of its largest-ever shuffles of government postings. This means that if people want to at least keep their jobs or, better yet, get promoted, they had better have plenty of economic growth to show for it - whether at the township, county, or provincial level. At that level, the Party Members sitting in the local banks will tell their bankers to keep lending. So in my mind, China's growth obsession is going to override any form of monetary tightening. In simple talk: if the leaders don't create jobs (=employment), they themselves will lose their jobs! Implication: China's Economic Time remains growth- and thus investment-friendly.
So I'm not contradicting your wonderful analysis, just adding a political twist to it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/12419/comments?source=feed#comment-52441 52441
We'll thus stick with our view put forth at June 2004"s Fed Funds of 1%: they will reach around 6% this year. Strategic investors: avoid the US market. The Far East and Europe are showing a much more attractive Economic Time.]]> Fri, 23 Jun 2006 05:44:33 -0400
We'll thus stick with our view put forth at June 2004"s Fed Funds of 1%: they will reach around 6% this year. Strategic investors: avoid the US market. The Far East and Europe are showing a much more attractive Economic Time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/12395/comments?source=feed#comment-52440 52440 Fri, 23 Jun 2006 05:38:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/12404/comments?source=feed#comment-52439 52439 Fri, 23 Jun 2006 05:32:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/12258/comments?source=feed#comment-52365 52365 Tue, 20 Jun 2006 23:18:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/12261/comments?source=feed#comment-52343 52343 Tue, 20 Jun 2006 07:51:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/12258/comments?source=feed#comment-52342 52342 Where I differ is that each of these markets has their own Economic Time - some of it good for markets, some not so good. And with a rising middle class in these markets, global liquidity still plays a role - but the importance of domestic liquidity is rising, too.]]> Tue, 20 Jun 2006 07:48:04 -0400 Where I differ is that each of these markets has their own Economic Time - some of it good for markets, some not so good. And with a rising middle class in these markets, global liquidity still plays a role - but the importance of domestic liquidity is rising, too.]]>