Reinko

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328 Comments

    • Tue Jul 1st 08:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      End of Quarter Dollar Assessment
      To Gabe.

      Yes I did some google thing, here is a nice article from the long lost days of Alan Greenspan and his conondrum thing, link:

      www.bloomberg.com/apps...

      Oh oh, short term rates above long term rates and Alan did not have a clue what was happening; the idiot flooded everything with non productive money and how did lots of Americans react?

      They stated that FED rates were too high because of the conondrum...

      When you ask an alcoholic about beer prices you usually hear they are too high, when you ask bank people about money rates you usually hear they are too high. There is no difference...

      And it is not that difficult to influence central bankers, for example here in Holland our central banker was far to optimistic last year. It took me just two email and suddenly he had his eyes on the ball again.
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 30th 16:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      End of Quarter Dollar Assessment
      To Gabe Borenstein:

      You say June 2005 but in the Spring of 2004 I understood the future stuff we are in now. Ok how could I know of sub prime stuff but the exact path is irrelevant, all you need to know is the big stuff.

      And Gabe, in case you have even spoken to central bankers; why did you not give them the fist?

      Today the central bankers of this world they met in Basel, here is a very funny file from the Basel based Bank for International Settlements:

      www.bis.org/statistics...

      Look at 'total contracts' and observe that in just two years time total derivative positions climbed from 300 to 600 trillion US$.

      Most of these derivative positions come from the USA, as a comparison the US GDP is only 14 trillion US$.

      You still think foreign folks would like to park their money in the USA when that baby starts blowing up?
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 30th 15:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      End of Quarter Dollar Assessment
      To User 142738

      It is funny to observe that Germany has over 800% of GDP on debt on herself... Please get real, before the Euro was there the Germans did not 'set rates' but did set M3 money supply and used the central bank rates to control the M3 money supply.

      Given that it is sheer impossible that Germany would have a debt problem comparable to the UK or the USA.

      But I admit that when it comes to raising rates by the ECB there are some weird countries like Spain and Italy who constant, just like the Americans, want to lower rates. It is a pity we cannot throw them out and it is also a pity that these countries still not understand they have to steer the economy via tax laws and no longer by printing more and more money.

      I don't know if the EU is giving Turkey a hard time because of debt problems, rather likely it is the Muslim character of Turkey that 'explains' such hard times. And France needs indeed some transformations and in the future they will have big problems paying for the elderly, yet in the USA these problems are bigger.

      The countries with the biggest problems here in Europe are the ones that are most similar to the USA. With reasonings like 'tax = evil' and 'debt = good'.
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 30th 13:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      End of Quarter Dollar Assessment
      To Gabe Borenstein:

      With amazing I am reading your comment, for me it is hard to see that some Armageddon will induce a flight into US$ 'safety'.

      I think you are one of those who know everything about the US FED but never visit their website.

      For example, did you know that the US financial system has more debt than an entire gross domestic product?
      Did you know that the US economy has over 50 trillion in direct debt upon herself? That the interest obligations are above total profits of the US economy?

      Here is the link:

      www.federalreserve.gov...
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 30th 13:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      End of Quarter Dollar Assessment
      Lets hope that the ECB will raise with 50 basispoints so we will have a swift taken of the 1.60 threshold in the Euro/US$ pair.

      The ECB is already 3 to 4 months too late with this, inflation is double compared to their mandate and M3 money growth is still double digit so almost 3 times the mandate.

      Furthermore since most commodities are still priced in US$ this would free Europe from inflation pressures created by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. Why should we pay for something we have not done?????
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 29th 08:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Current Market Conditions and Future Returns
      The article has no quantification whatsoever, so it might very well be that stock prices are declining but P/E ratio's are still too high.

      Don't forget that only a few weeks ago we had all kinds of weird people stating that 'the worst of the credit crisis is over' and talk like that. Therefore it could very well be that future earnings expectations are still far too optimistic....
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 17:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Record Oil Surge Leans on Stocks and Dollar
      The Bear rescue by the US FED the author mentions is very interesting:

      Many months before the sudden collapse of Bear Stearn Cos I already expected a tidal wave of bankruptcies in the US financial sector.

      So I was a bit disappointed when Bear got rescued but I knew I only had to wait some time longer...

      And guess what? I have it from a commisioner from Fortis Bank, he stated they needed to raise another 8 billion Euro (that's above 12 billion US$) in order to prepare for 'that what is coming' from the USA.

      When asked by the journalist what exactly was coming, the Fortis guy said: "Right now 6000 regional US banks go busted".

      __________

      So far the Fortis guy, I knew already of a lot of problems in the regional banks. For example they cannot merge because in that case the banking books needed mark to market value...

      Let the good times roll & what happens to the petro dollar?????
      View article »
    • Fri Jun 27th 09:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Foreclosure Stimulus to Boost Tech's Four Horsemen
      This is a brilliant article; when folks cannot afford their house any longer this is good for tech.

      I even have a much more brilliant plan to save the economy:

      We let the Treasury sell one trillion of AAA rated Federal bonds to the Chinese.

      With this trillion every US citizen gets a fully loaded assault rifle together with 2 gallons of whiskey (that is good for weapon and whiskey producers).

      After that we will see the hospital and grave yard industry booming and booming.

      We make sure the population has no shortage of bullets and whiskey.

      After some time when half of the population is shot dead, we observe a giant benefit:

      All wealth in the nation is now distributed over only half the folks, hence the average American is twice as rich...

      That will make the entire economy booming and booming and booming!
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 18:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Jumps, Stocks Slide, Dollar Succumbs
      Hello my lovely, did we have today a 140 US$ breach of the one barrel oil??????

      In that case it coule be that the OPEC has opened a third oil trade center where folks can buy stuff at the expense of one yard wide US females.

      Lets hope there are more oil markets out there but in the meantime I will always follow your lovely ways of thinking.

      Oh Grace, you are my Queen.....
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 25th 13:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Inflation: Pass It Through
      Nice article.

      To JCCIII:

      Gross domestic product growth is already without inflation, that is why it is 'product growth'.

      __________

      For the rest it is laughable to observe they even use 'geometric weighting', this is nonsense!

      But measuring inflation is a hard try, try it for yourself with only bread. Here in Holland cheap bread is 45 cents for 800 gramm, good qulity bread is around 95 cents to one Euro and luxery bread above two Euro.

      How to measure changes in bread prices?

      So you see: measuring inflation is difficult and depending on what your spending habits are, you have even an individual inflation number...
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 24th 15:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are We Facing a New Wave of Sovereign Bond Defaults?
      The author asks himself the following question, quote:

      Well, are levels of domestic debt rising? In real terms?

      Unquote.

      Comment: See this detail from the FED Z1 release, look in the first column and scroll down, link:

      www.federalreserve.gov...

      Lets look at non financial debt only:

      2007 Q4:31249.3
      2008 Q1:31758.4 billions of US$.

      So in one quarter has this part of the US picked up over 500 billion more debt, for the year this will mean about 2000 billion or 2 trillion.

      That is a size of about 15% of the yearly gross domestic product in more debt and this is only a segment of US society.

      Conclusion: Debt growth is still a multiple of gross domestic product growth. The law of exponentials still says the biggest exponent wins and thus total debt will grow on and on...

      As a comparison:
      Suppose company 'Blink it Blue' has a market cap of 100 million and every 2 to 3 years they sell bonds in 100 million US$ bundels.
      Would you invest in the long run in that company?
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 24th 14:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financials - Was There a Bear Tell on Sector Weight?
      As far as I know reality; there could easily be another 50% shave from the present levels.

      Why do I think that?

      There are much more reasons but I want to highlight the debt position of the entire US financial sector, right now this sector of the USA has 15945.7 billion of debt. This is above one US gross domestic product...

      Look in the one last column of the source file (Domestic financial sector):

      www.federalreserve.gov...

      In August last year the credit crisis finally broke out, if you make an estimation of the new debt needed by US financial sector in 2007 Q3 and 2008 Q1 you get:

      Q3 2007: 2500 billion new debt needed in 2008
      Q1 2008: 800 billion new debt needed in 2008

      The difference is an amazing amount of 1700 billion in new debt that now is not available...

      Only this little detail is one of the reasons the entire financial sector can go easily down another 50%.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 24th 10:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don’t Worry About a Return to ‘70s Stagflation
      Fiasco is in the right; in the artilce it isn't even mentioned if the author is talking about core inflation or about the real inflation that people feel in their wallets.

      And then this, quote:

      The awareness of the negative impacts of stagflation will almost certainly lead top policymakers in the White House, at the Federal Reserve and on Capitol Hill to move quickly to head off stagflation, as we’ve already seen with the economic stimulus checks and interest rate cuts. Unquote.

      Comment: the stimulus package is only a bit more borrowed money and is only 150 to 160 billion US$ in size. As a comparison: In 2005 US house owners withdrew a staggering 750 billion US$ from their home value (in the form of HELOC or second mortgages); most of that was used for consumer spending or large goods but not that much went into decreasing of the house value.

      If 750 billion did not do the trick, why whould the stimulus package work now?

      And the FED keeping stagnation out of the door? Wake up, it is an election year so from the FED nothing but rethoric...

      View article »
    • Sun Jun 22nd 18:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines the Case, But the Argument is Weak
      And after reading the comments further on, I think I have found another idiot that does not understand the actual workings of the US financial system where it is not uncommon to observe elephants fly.

      The quote is from datalink 1995 and datalink 1995 thinks that trading of futures is related to actual delivering of oil at your door...
      Never ever it has occured in the mindset of dataling 1995 that traders that work at banks consider this 'rather unhandy' and that this is against the 'nature' of futures because futures 'only follow real markets'.

      Not often you observe it as dumd as the datalink 1995.

      Here is the wisdom of datalink 1995, quote:

      There have been speculators long before any of us were born. They can’t corner the oil market. Eventually they have to take delivery, and the cost of storage would break the price.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 22nd 18:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines the Case, But the Argument is Weak
      Correction: Due to a lot of spyware on my computer (that is not to be found by ordinary anti spy stuff) my PC often does strange things.

      So I correct the wrong words, quote:

      Furthermore you mention 110,000 of these contracts open in August 2007 when oil/barrel was US$.

      With the words as I typed them just a few minutes ago:

      Furthermore you mention 110,000 of these contracts open in August 2007 when oil/barrel was 78 US$.

      View article »
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