rayman's Comments

iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures: Another Terrible Volatility ETF

Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:33:29 -0400

This is *EXACTLY* why I trade options. You buy VXX, then buy .VIX puts ;) hold for a month, works perfectly! I think I did a 100 VXX to 5 .VIX ITM puts last time....

Four ETFs with Great Apple Exposure

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 06:07:06 -0400

IWF

Thursday's Options Recap

Fri, 01 May 2009 02:55:31 -0400

I'm long a JUL MA Butterfly call spread @200 strike.....we shall see....
Longed V LEAPs before earns day before earns

Thursday Options Recap

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 18:49:18 -0400

any thoughts on the .VIX options Fred? It seems like it's stabalized now and I'm thinking strangles being put on farther out?

Understanding How the Dow Jones Is Calculated

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 08:02:39 -0400

URL for the sheet didn't work for me for some reason, using Excel 2003 sp3 here (maybe that's part of the problem lol).
Anyway, great idea, the same for Excel also works if you create a Yahoo Finance portfolio and export it too Excel, it works really well even for quotes.

3x ETFs Are Wealth Destroyers

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 22:35:27 -0400

nevermind, dis-regard prior post, I think Philip Davis on SeekingAlpha already commented on a not so bad options strategy for FAS!
seekingalpha.com/autho...
How convenient!
(that is if you believe in it)
either way, I guess you can sell naked puts on both FAS/FAZ and end up with one or the other (unless they go to zero! lol)

3x ETFs Are Wealth Destroyers

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 22:08:42 -0400

If you guys think the ETFs are "wealth destroyers", than I have an options strategy:
Just short 2 OTM call spreads on both of them (FAS/FAZ DO have options), of course, just as the article states, the risk is if one or the other becomes directional and is not "flat".
Then you are simply out at zero cost I would think or close to it.

3x ETFs Are Wealth Destroyers

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 21:59:58 -0400

So, speaking of wealth destroyers, it's just plain truth that financials are a mess, but let's look at another Direxion example:
Look at EDC (another direxion fun YTD)
It actually hasn't lost it!..........the chart mimicked EEM pretty well
Now if you run the 3 month chart on Yahoo and compare it DIRECTLY to EEM, you will see that EDC is up 60%, EEM is up 20%.
The leveraged ETFs actually lose their value as well based on volatility I would imagine like those silly ultra ETFs (UYG, etc.).
Whilst, us option players face the same risk with theta, but of course, we can hedge our risk as well.
I was short a put spread on FAS at one time, and actually got assigned at 7.5, believe it or not!!! (and sold my 2.5 puts for profit)! Figured it should go up to 10 sometime or another....but nice rebound in March.

New Direxion 3x ETFs Offer Investors 'Bonds on Crack'

Sat, 18 Apr 2009 15:24:18 -0400

I owned the TBT, the Direxions don't even have dividend yields like TBT/TLT. If it's risk you want, why don't you just buy the TNX index call or put options off of the yield index directly?
If there is a way to hedge your risk exposure or just buy options directly though, it could be interesting for those one off government referee events in the playing field, but Direxion didn't release options for a while on the last ones.

General Growth Properties' Bankruptcy: Where's the Silver Lining?

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 22:41:31 -0400

Mark, bloomberg article:
"Mall owners Simon Property Group Inc., Macerich Co., Vornado Realty Trust and Taubman Centers Inc. rallied yesterday on speculation the biggest real estate bankruptcy in the U.S. will allow competitors to buy General Growth’s assets at a discount. "
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
just fyi, an explanation on the whackiness of the market, but why the other reits rallied the way they did (fails to mention analyst upgrades as well though)

Friday's Options Recap

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 17:14:45 -0400

What a disappointment.
Play money paper trade....worked........
GOOG
04/17/2009 O BTC .GOPDT - GOOG APR 400 Call 2 $3.10 $14.95 ($634.95)
04/14/2009 O STO .GOPDT - GOOG APR 400 Call 1 $5.40 $14.95 $525.03
04/13/2009 O STO .GOPDT - GOOG APR 400 Call 1 $3.90 $14.95 $375.03 265.11
04/17/2009 O STC .GOPFT - GOOG JUN 400 Call 2 $25.50 $14.95 $5,084.91
04/14/2009 O BTO .GOPFT - GOOG JUN 400 Call 1 $18.70 $14.95 ($1,884.95)
04/13/2009 O BTO .GOPFT - GOOG JUN 400 Call 1 $17.00 $14.95 ($1,714.95) 1,485.01
Total Realized Gain/Loss for GOOG $1,750.12

General Growth Properties' Bankruptcy: Where's the Silver Lining?

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 21:25:02 -0400

These are the U.S. analysts as well.
The foreign REITs already seemed to be doing absolutely fine and retail sales actually have been edging up.
Check volume on some of the ishares X-US REITs lol and the big boy blocks in early March.

General Growth Properties' Bankruptcy: Where's the Silver Lining?

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 21:21:12 -0400

"I am sure I can find a way to twist the 2nd largest mall REIT going bankrupt into a "positive" for the rest of the sector."
Different sector but................BBY & HGG both went up post Circuit City's filing and did absolutely fine. They had stellar earnings quarter over quarter as well. Hmmm...wonder who's getting GGP's biz?

Monday Options Recap

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:07:28 -0400

Hey Fred, did you see the prints on this guy buying the .SIN index? hmmmm......no interest here, but weird....maybe MGM news
lost on MGM calls last month, but still interesting to me i suppose for some reason
ok, maybe i need a preacher!
get it?
.SIN index of course...

Friday's Options Recap

Sun, 05 Apr 2009 08:15:01 -0400

bought the rimm 55 APR straddle Fri......

Taking Stock of Oil

Thu, 02 Apr 2009 05:45:23 -0400

hmmm i'm long HES calls and SJT calls into summer driving season........was in and out of MCF (Contango) calls

I might pick up some XOI calls at some point.
PGE might be good too, like some of the small cap divi plays like those & WTU.....Cramer likes BPT, no position for me though, CRT is still my fave.

Monday's Options Recap

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 16:21:14 -0400

VIX.....it's the end of the world!!!!!!!!!!
AGAIN even (how many end of the worlds can we have, wow....)!

get your government cheese and gold ETFs!
hah, kinda impressed it couldn't even hit 50 when GM and bankruptcy in the same sentence today by the press (albeit exaggerated, and no we are not really sure yet anyway)....
It seems the market is starting to seperate the good from bad at least at this point.

Friday's Options Recap

Sun, 29 Mar 2009 01:39:23 -0400

longed some ACN calls myself, seems a.o.k., not getting too heavy on it though just yet......giving it time
MAY

Quick Thoughts on a Possible Red Hat, Oracle Merger

Sun, 29 Mar 2009 01:34:00 -0400

makes me think what role AMD has to play in all of this? hmmm

Thursday's Options Recap

Thu, 26 Mar 2009 16:30:34 -0400

I like these pair trades as well for quick intraday profit.
Was going to get HGG (H.H. Gregg off of BBY news, missed it)........or SYY (Sysco) off of CAG news. Too many other positions to manage today though, but missed out on the HGG short squeeze today.
Bah humbug, but Happy investing, Ray

Monday's Options Recap

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 02:48:00 -0400

i hate whatstrading.com.....lol, they are "watching" me.....Fred, just kidding awesome site, that's me on the mini FTSE calls.....btw, not listing the index here though for privacy reasons

Monday's Options Recap

Mon, 23 Mar 2009 18:26:48 -0400

long rvx puts.....still peckin away.....

Friday's Options Recap

Mon, 23 Mar 2009 17:46:48 -0400

FRED, you STINK
(being sarcastic of course)
nice day in the markets today, thanks for all your contributions, they are absolutely INVALUABLE ;)

Friday's Options Recap

Fri, 20 Mar 2009 20:14:45 -0400

ahh tried to get some MS long today with a cheap shot $21 MAR call
no dice, oh well, couldn't hold that level....
out $55.......maybe next time, felt more comfortable with that risk/reward than holding it long over the weekend if the market couldn't see any strength
teens maybe? who knows......still like MS for some strange reason. I thought about shorting MAC puts today, but not quite yet.

Tuesday's Options Recap: Risk Perceptions Fall Sharply

Mon, 16 Mar 2009 22:59:13 -0400

I need to due some more delta neutral (well - *kind of* trades. Doh, one more thing I thought of (of course). 50 shares of stock - then of course get 1 put. Same math I guess as 2 puts, but if the stock is expensive, simply keep the same ratio. If you like the stock, buy more on weakness or strength, rinse, lather repeat and if you make gains, try to use some of those gains to purchase another put. Could be really good for momentum stocks, and also very good downside protection.

Monday's Options Recap

Mon, 16 Mar 2009 16:48:00 -0400

liked the price action on RTN & LLL, starting some back month .DFX index calls......

Friday's Options Recap

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 20:49:06 -0400

Looking at the last bids on CMP, looks like the APR 50's are being sold and APR 65's are being bought, so not sure if the deal is totally dead or just delayed imminently and just a headfake.
I've been starting JUN calls on the 65 line, but very slowly.....and not too many contracts @ once, just own a couple.

Tuesday's Options Recap: Risk Perceptions Fall Sharply

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 17:46:46 -0400

The delta neutral also sounds similar as well to this method: www.theoptionsguide.co... that I like as well. Good notes, keep up the great work! Seems almost worthwhile these days to get 2 puts against a position esp. if they get cheaper.

On Mar 11 10:31 AM Frederic Ruffy wrote:

> Thank you for the comments. Sounds like the KIE calls are working
> out well for you Rayman.
>
> One clarification to the comment: "something like 80% or more of
> all block option trades are delta neutral".
>
> Delta neutral implies that a position is perfectly hedged. For example,
> 100 shares of stock, which have a delta of 1.00, can be hedged with
> two puts that have negative deltas of -.5. This results in a position
> delta of 0 or delta neutral.
>
> Over the 15+ years I have been active in the options market, including
> on an institutional trading desk, I can tell you with certainty that
> 80 percent of block options trades are not delta neutral. Options
> trades are initiated by buyers and sellers for a variety of reasons--sometimes
> to hedge, sometimes to speculate. True, a lot of the activity is
> tied to shares, but it is often on positive or negative deltas.

>
> We monitor the activity throughout the day and write about the most
> interesting and noteworthy activity. Whether or not you feel it has
> predictive value is up to you, but consider a recent example from
> Friday--a surge in call activity in Schering Plough that occurred
> before the takeover announcement Monday. This was not a coincidence.
>
>
> If you want to find out more about the tools we use and how we track
> the activity, we have a FAQ section on our web site that addresses
> many of those questions.
>
> Good trading!

Tuesday's Options Recap: Risk Perceptions Fall Sharply

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 17:43:19 -0400

lol, out KIE calls....probably saw em on your site *wink* *wink*
150% return on the squeeze Fred...held for a few days I believe, but wish I kept my IBM/UYG calls, phenomenal day

I ike the notes on Delta Neutral Fred.
I went Delta neutral on EFA (well kind of) with a 33 strike straddle on the front month today. A wee bit upside, but I might pull it at a 10% loss if things don't work out right away. Looking for 20% upside.
I might be doing some conversions soon if I can find some (shouldn't be too hard to do if some more volatality comes in).

Thursday's Options Recap

Thu, 12 Mar 2009 17:37:48 -0400

An easy way also to buy biotech is to buy the Biotech index calls, ticker .BTK. Popular names such as what is in IBB.
(disclaimer, own calls, up a wee bit today)