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arbtrader

arbtrader
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  • The Death Rattle Of Europe's Statist Dream [View article]
    Good summary. What I'm trying to reconcile is that the EU bureaucracy is the de facto state; in the EU-there is very little democracy. Look at how the bureaucrats maneuvered to put in a new Prime Minister they approved of in Italy without any election.
    Local bureaucrats have far less power now to actually 'do' anything (but they are still fully paid!). The business elite is similarly positioned as supporters of the EU.

    So it's the people and a few far-right/left nutjob politicians that are anti EU. How to get the revolution going?
    Oct 21 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Systemic Risk Forum [View instapost]
    how about a YETI? http://bit.ly/ZDAWmb
    Oct 15 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: Time To Buy Some Of The Eaton Vance Option Income Funds [View instapost]
    I've been in/out of CEF's since late 90's. Invariably, the puke day for CEF's marks a good bottom the past 15+ years.

    Unfortunately, retail is the last guy to sell. But it makes my job easier.

    PS- a friend always calls within 1-2 days of the bottom asking if it's time to go to 100%. He just sent a panicked email before lunch at 11 am....GLTA. AT.
    Oct 14 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Price Target On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    0xfc. Look into LEAP calls if you want outsized risk with controlled downside. Not investment advice! Just one way to structure your portfolio and jack up the leverage in a manageable way.

    This AM was crazy with that dip to 95$. Looked like margin calls/indiscriminate de-risking this morning on the open under the SP 200dma. Now it's heading back up...crazy. GLTA. AT>
    Oct 14 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earn 40% Annualized Return With A Low-Risk, Short-Term Trade [View article]
    Done, congrats. AT.
    Sep 25 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swiss National Bank: 'The Economic Outlook Has Deteriorated Considerably' [View article]
    We agree that the Euro is in trouble! The authorities have managed to keep the weak countries afloat. I have no idea how the local populace are tolerating the youth unemployment.

    Friends who travel to Switzerland tell me of 15-20$ cups of coffee and 500$+ hotel rooms. You have my sympathies. Other than disagreeing on the currency peg, the SNB is a reasonably well run institution. Better than the Fed, no doubt. Rgds, AT.
    Sep 18 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swiss National Bank: 'The Economic Outlook Has Deteriorated Considerably' [View article]
    but to follow your logic if Germany leaves the Euro, and SNB has to bail like crazy prior to that event (which they would do as they absorb safe haven seeking cash) then the SNB is the proud owner of Euros backed by France and Greece?
    Sep 18 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swiss National Bank: 'The Economic Outlook Has Deteriorated Considerably' [View article]
    I understand the concept of the race to the bottom but how will the SNB win, given the small size relative to the Euro?

    I'm thinking of Soros (and the broad market) crushing the British Pound prior to EMU entry. How much piling-on will it take to break the 1.20 level? Especially if there is panic on the Euro side (major bank failure, sovereign default, etc) vs a sole seller that is ultimately a political animal?

    It's a reasonable bet that every chump on a bank derivative desks are selling 1.20 puts for the 'free money.' Given enough time, that would seem to be the easy bet to take and be long puts.

    The market, esp one seized with panic, will crush a central bank. But call me a cynic. AT.
    Sep 18 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Will The Haynesville Resurrect? [View article]
    Excellent article again, Richard.

    Encana also teased recently about doing 'refracs' on H'ville wells to increase production. They were very vague about it but said the IRR's were well worth the capex. It may offer early wells another EUR bump if it plays out.

    I too am amused about the 'unburdened' IRR. CHK paid $30k/ac 25% RI when things were really hot back in the day. That's a very convenient number to exclude. Kind of like ignoring the cost of a college education w a big debt to make $30,000 a year bartending...

    Best, AT.
    Aug 31 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Event Driven Q&A Forum [View instapost]
    Of course it's up now, I'm out!

    Ha, AT.
    Aug 27 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Event Driven Q&A Forum [View instapost]
    I don't have a $ position but I take the other side that it will go through. Canada is one of the largest trading partners for US goods. This is not like moving to switzerland or Bermuda with no business nexus in the HQ country. This is Canada, a real country and loyal ally.

    Do we tell them to F^&* off, closed for business? Not to mention NAFTA and other free trade policies/treaties we have.

    I seriously doubt Congress can get anything done this year; there is no consensus on how to respond. No way are D or R going to let the other side dictate the legislation. It will die because there is no way to share credit for new laws.

    As for WAG- they got huge medicare and medicaid $. The were very vulnerable. The logic does not extend to BK. Is BK going to stop taking food stamps?

    Obv. I'm very cynical about the powers that be. Good luck! AT.
    Aug 26 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy beats by $0.02, misses on revenue [View news story]
    after hours trading: Ouch!
    Aug 6 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I: Is There A Bottom? [View article]
    Richard, thanks once again for the detailed work.

    Are there any implications for SD's non-trust EUR or type curve going forward? Or does this represent the early testing phase, so to speak, for cracking the code of the Miss Lime?

    Best, AT.
    Aug 5 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Smoking Hot Arbitrage Deal With Lorillard [View article]
    http://bloom.bg/1pALv29

    Another reason to love 'big tobacco'. I bet the marketing people are itching to get the spotlight if this actually works (and hopefully, it does!).
    Aug 5 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Smoking Hot Arbitrage Deal With Lorillard [View article]
    SS&A:
    Great article. Couple bullet points:

    -mgt on the cc did say they were ready to sell more brands in the deal if necessary to get er done.

    -HSR/market concentration is a concern for anyone long- as you point out. One other factor that may or may not count is that this will create a much stronger RAI. Why does that matter? Because they have another decade + of tobacco litigation cash that is going to the states (who have already spent it). Will the FTC/DOJ care about making a stronger, more financially viable RAI? We shall see.

    -The company was incredibly vague about 'synergies' that will lead to higher profits. My conclusion is that they are going to aggressively boost prices to raise profits. Again, more $ = safer litigation income stream. Also, higher prices discourage smoking. Is the goal of the government to lower prices for tobacco and encourage smoking?

    Interesting arguments that go round and round....but unless you are worried about preserving competition in the tobacco market, what is the problem with higher prices? This is not baby formula?! AT.
    Aug 4 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
181 Comments
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