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arbtrader

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  • Event Driven Q&A Forum [View instapost]
    I don't have a $ position but I take the other side that it will go through. Canada is one of the largest trading partners for US goods. This is not like moving to switzerland or Bermuda with no business nexus in the HQ country. This is Canada, a real country and loyal ally.

    Do we tell them to F^&* off, closed for business? Not to mention NAFTA and other free trade policies/treaties we have.

    I seriously doubt Congress can get anything done this year; there is no consensus on how to respond. No way are D or R going to let the other side dictate the legislation. It will die because there is no way to share credit for new laws.

    As for WAG- they got huge medicare and medicaid $. The were very vulnerable. The logic does not extend to BK. Is BK going to stop taking food stamps?

    Obv. I'm very cynical about the powers that be. Good luck! AT.
    Aug 26 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy beats by $0.02, misses on revenue [View news story]
    after hours trading: Ouch!
    Aug 6 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I: Is There A Bottom? [View article]
    Richard, thanks once again for the detailed work.

    Are there any implications for SD's non-trust EUR or type curve going forward? Or does this represent the early testing phase, so to speak, for cracking the code of the Miss Lime?

    Best, AT.
    Aug 5 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Smoking Hot Arbitrage Deal With Lorillard [View article]
    http://bloom.bg/1pALv29

    Another reason to love 'big tobacco'. I bet the marketing people are itching to get the spotlight if this actually works (and hopefully, it does!).
    Aug 5 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Smoking Hot Arbitrage Deal With Lorillard [View article]
    SS&A:
    Great article. Couple bullet points:

    -mgt on the cc did say they were ready to sell more brands in the deal if necessary to get er done.

    -HSR/market concentration is a concern for anyone long- as you point out. One other factor that may or may not count is that this will create a much stronger RAI. Why does that matter? Because they have another decade + of tobacco litigation cash that is going to the states (who have already spent it). Will the FTC/DOJ care about making a stronger, more financially viable RAI? We shall see.

    -The company was incredibly vague about 'synergies' that will lead to higher profits. My conclusion is that they are going to aggressively boost prices to raise profits. Again, more $ = safer litigation income stream. Also, higher prices discourage smoking. Is the goal of the government to lower prices for tobacco and encourage smoking?

    Interesting arguments that go round and round....but unless you are worried about preserving competition in the tobacco market, what is the problem with higher prices? This is not baby formula?! AT.
    Aug 4 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cutting Through The Multicultural Nonsense [View instapost]
    By law, every single house in Israel has a solar water heater on the roof. at first I thought it was some orwellian tree-hugger requirement.

    However, the benefits to society of not having to import energy and export valuable dollars which probably fund hostile neighbors who may cut supplies,etc, are enormous. Brilliant.

    We value free choice and the cost/benefit for us is far higher here where energy is very cheap and local. But many countries have high energy costs and don't use the same system. Just about any island, for example.
    Aug 4 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the Scientific Games-Bally Technologies deal [View news story]
    IGT may be a great idea if you're a muppet...IGT already has an announced takeover.
    Aug 1 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Bonds: A Reward To Risk Ratio Twice As High As The Median Bond Issue [View article]
    Donald, thanks for the lead. I will read it. As someone who is pretty skeptical of government competence when sitting across the table from private enterprise I'm very impressed w the bargain the government struck, more so that we can benefit!

    The premium on almost all the TARP wts is ridiculously low given the time involved.

    Rgds, AT
    Jul 30 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Bonds: A Reward To Risk Ratio Twice As High As The Median Bond Issue [View article]
    I've been a fan of the TARP warrants of AIG for a few years. I realize this is not the thrust of your analysis but could you use the yield/warrant combo to create a hybrid convertible?

    For a taxable entity there are advantages to the TARPs w the Dividend strike reduction (tax free) and share buyback step-up, etc.

    Very thorough evaluation of the debt. It's reassuring as an equity holder!
    Jul 30 11:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising My $100 Price Target For Gilead Sciences On Sovaldi Sales [View article]
    Not to change the subject but LEAP calls are one way to play this. IMO much more efficient use of capital. In 2016 you can decide to pay LT gains, exercise and hold, or a combo. The delta on the calls I own is .50-.60 and rising with the price so if you touch 140 anytime in 18 months you (me) will be a very happy camper.

    Options are dangerous, will make you poor etc. Let's get that out of the way.

    Good report, thanks for writing it up. SP has the tgt at 150, FYI, for comparison.

    I think the issue with GILD is much like AAPL in its hyper-growth phase: the Street really has trouble believing the great news, esp from a large established co. Comparing apples to oranges, much of the growth crowd would rather chase AMZN or FB with infinity growth predictions.

    Now, the real fun will start when growth gets valued properly (aapl 2005-2010) and the price goes nuts. If you put an aggressive PEG on GILD you can work up a fun # for a price target.

    Rgds, AT.
    Jul 29 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Reducing The Risk Of Black Swans [View article]
    "Investing is not a science; it is an art. Our principles are vague and subject to many forces beyond our recognition and control."

    Excellent point, David. I'd add also that good or great investors can adapt to the market they are given vs trying to make the market fit their style. Even Buffett has gone from workouts/arb/liquidations in the 60's, to insurance after that, and then 'blue chips' that really don't fit into the 'value' stylebox. Yet I'd argue he has consistently been a value investor the whole time.

    Thanks for the review, AT>
    Jul 24 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs And Their Radically Rational Blueprint For Success [View article]
    Reading 'Cable Cowboy' right now. A sympathetic writeup on Malone. 1/2 way through, a good book so far. Highly recco if you find him interesting and want more information. I just missed (age-wise) the swashbuckling days of Cable/programming and so for me it was a revelation. Business literature tends to ignore the crazy dealmaking of the 70s-80s in that industry.
    AT
    Jul 20 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tiny Oil & Gas Trust With A Huge Margin Of Safety And A Catalyst [View article]
    There may also be the angle at some point of seeing if the Trustee is not acting in a fiduciary manner by benefitting certain shareholders vs others. People in that position professionally are bonded and regulated by (I think) state authorities. Worth a quick google check w the state and a phone call to see who is 'in charge'. Even making the TTe aware of your research into their obligations may keep them honest if they have strayed. Is a relatively small fee worth trashing their reputation? Maybe, maybe not.

    Sold out years back, but good luck. AT.
    Jul 17 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Like The Psycho Ex That Is Still Obsessed With You [View article]
    I'm only a fan of owning small time physical gold. Any kind of size is going to attract 1-too much attention and 2-government envy. Roosevelt deputized bank officers to watch you open your safety deposit boxes and confiscate physical gold. Sure you can keep it at home....but do you want to, really?

    Don't you think the underlying bid is from panic-driven Europeans afraid of being 'bailed-in' to keep the banking system afloat? They have much more experience the past 100 years with capricious short term government policy than we do.

    We tend to look at the world through our own lens and miss what may be driving others since we assume they have the same reasons. JMO. AT.

    BTW, saw that movie last night w my kids. The boys in particular thought the psycho ex was hilarious. Excellent.
    Jul 11 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Latest Mississippian Results Look Stronger; Initial Chester Tests Disappoint [View article]
    OK- thanks for the detail. Much appreciated. My fear was a Sandridge=Earthquake headline and a swarm of class action types.

    Sounds as if SD is geographically diverse enough and has enough infrastructure that this will quite likely not affect them.

    Best, AT.
    Jul 9 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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