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arbtrader

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  • Who Will Win The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election?  [View instapost]
    Unfortunately, the options of the country (and therefore, the President) are rapidly narrowing to the point it will matter little who holds the job in the late teens/early 20's (assuming a 2 termer).

    If rates on the national debt rise just few %, turn off the lights. It's slash and burn time.

    When the math turns against us we are screwed. Best, AT.
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lorillard: Time To Exit [View article]
    check OCC.com and search for LO. There may be a memo out addressing treatment.

    usually they just allocated the cash/stock mix that a shareholder would get if you exercise your calls. so 1contract=cash/stock equiv.

    Good luck.

    BTW a 3% yield is nothing to sneeze at assuming a close within say 60d....annualized out to 18% or higher...AT.
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bond Market Tells The Fed What To Do, Not Vice-Versa [View article]
    David, well said. People need a reminder that the Fed is analogous to the Wizard of Oz. (Which itself is an 19th century novel about the gold standard).

    Both Bernanke and Greenspan have muttered dire warnings about the deflation of the debt/low interest rate environment currently ruling the world. It's played up on the fringe but ignored by mainstream firms.

    Best, AT.
    Apr 3, 2015. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    MT- that reporter for the NYP gets amazing info. His FTC scoops are always money-good and early. One guy I def pay attention to.
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Expecting a 2nd as well but hopeful it's sooner than 16.

    I believe the process will speed up (in Government terms) by having been to this rodeo before as well as having templates from prior retail deals to compare to: Jos A Banks, FDO, HT, and SWY come to mind where you have store closure to cut competition to become monopoly provider, dependent populations, etc. Plus the internet as competitor....

    not sure who is on legal but what other deals have they guided thru the FTC maze? You have to think that Staples had a good handle on this as well as the various HF that advocated for the merger.

    I'm long it and hoping for a mid q4 close....call it <9 mos.

    Best, AT.
    Mar 27, 2015. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Systemic Risk Forum [View instapost]
    anything compact that they can trade for higher-value items.

    I'd assume staples are readily available in VZ at a price that is higher than the subsidized government store sells them for.

    One place to gather intel would be to have the local family see what people need and offer to deliver it. You may find someone willing to pay 500$ (whatever) for the last season of Breaking Bad on DVD. High-end chocolate, high end technology, Designer goods, Apple products, etc.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    PCYC- why does the 260 call have such a huge premium? August has 4.50+premium in it....why not sell it for an extra 1.7% return?

    The deal is safe (IMO) and huge, not much chance of an interloper at this time.

    I'm aware of the equity component introduces optionality to the upside but it's 10d VWAP pricing so it's going to be fairly close to 1.25 in value delivered unless there is a high volume move just prior to close.

    The options market is rarely wrong due to the leverage=risk. What am I missing? Thanks AT.
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Another author had a good description of what and how NRZ/HLSS does on SA the past day or so. Worth a read if you are going to arb. The funding issue seems to be related to a Hedge Fund trying to get a note thrown into default. The note is issued by HLSS to fund Ocwen deals.
    Lots of moving parts here but the article makes who does what slightly more clear in a business with numbing complexity.
    On a more positive note Moody's put HLSS on review with a positive outlook right after the transaction was announced. In a business that lives on easy credit, a positive move.
    GL, AT.
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    I sniffed around this afternoon- read the PR's, CC, etc. Do you think some of the downside action is just the premium coming out? The pricing indicated that some buyers wanted a price bump above book value (the sale price). Notes say 3 HF's not happy about the price.

    Back of the envelope the discount to the takeout is not extreme and the AR% is OK for the deal and prob should be higher?

    Haven't really made up my mind, just a couple items from my notes. AT
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    http://bit.ly/1BCwn6Z

    London conference on 3/19. Above the presentation. Seems to defend the deal pretty forcefully even if its just lousy timing. Have not listened but must have said something other than unqualified support for the deal? AT
    Mar 19, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    http://bit.ly/1LxjDK4

    German article dissing the integration efforts and the tick fee.

    Anyone speak german? Google translate kind of butchers this.

    Stabilized down a % or so. But ugly volume today. Best, AT.
    Mar 19, 2015. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Intraday chart just shows it's getting banged out all day...most anyone buying had reason to regret it. No news that I see, either. Assuming a mid july close (post EU) you have v high teens yield? AT.
    Mar 17, 2015. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Salix Would Work Out Quite Well For Valeant Shareholders [View article]
    Great answer, great insight. Thank you! AT.
    Mar 14, 2015. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing Salix Would Work Out Quite Well For Valeant Shareholders [View article]
    I'm curious about that 500m bump in the Bonds. Since bond money goes into escrow does that imply a 500m bump in pricing (5% higher would be 165-166ish) available to VRX to use? You seem to have a good handle on fixed income.

    I'm aware of the 160's talk off the NYT article mid-day, today. Best, AT.
    Mar 13, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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