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arbtrader

arbtrader
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  • Mo' Money, Mo' Cash Deals With Attractive Spreads [View article]
    Don't forget APAGF. That was selling at a huge discount at the end of day just before it closed.....AT.
    Jan 30, 2015. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    SSA- great series of writeups on the play also. You saved me some legwork writing it up. Much appreciated.
    Best, AT
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Suggest you call your back office- get past the phone brokers- they can give you exact mechanics. Also some brokers may be better than others in getting a borrow or giving you an extra day to find the borrow before calling shares back in. Just an idea.
    For a TOffer, shares once pledged can't be loaned out for shorting. that makes the borrow harder, not impossible. But realize bigger accounts than yours will also want to do the same and prob willing to pay a higher cost?
    GL, AT
    Jan 26, 2015. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    IB=Interactive brokers. I use their price alerts feature. Throw up a 30d/30min chart, pick the high/low spots.

    Labor intensive but it works very well for me....tape reading is a skill set developed over the past decade. I usually can spot deals closing/significant PR's a day early. PL was obvious yesterday at the close-as an example. Someone knew the PR was coming out.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    -first, may be hard to short. stocks on tender get pulled from margin lending accounts. Expect a very high % to tender with the 'free money' on offer here.

    -no advance knowledge of an odd lot. It's a pure odds play. If I own 99sh at 46$, I have a reasonably good chance I can dump it north of that..even 46.01..at some point prior to the TO finish line.

    So for 400$ upside I'll take the risk esp given the time to sell. Just my viewpoint, not a big % for me so everyone has to consider their own comfort with the embedded risk.

    Welcome to SA. This is a great BB Ace started. AT.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SumZero's Compensation Database For Hedge Funds [View instapost]
    very good point there re:mediocre/median pay!
    Jan 22, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    it's quite the bouncing ball, isn't it?
    Jan 22, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Question: I'm researching Information services for Small-Time arb traders.

    There are always pros/cons to all services but Bloomberg is not realistic for me. I'm aware of DealAnalytics, MergerMarket, and The Deal.

    Basically, I want to track:
    Annualized and Simple % return,
    expected/received regulatory reviews w dates
    finance hurdles or other potential hiccups,
    ..and an ACCURATE close date,

    That last item is key. I've often noted that even after a management CC or PR, many services just keep the same date plugged in and this throws the AR% off in a material way.

    If I'm paying I want info that I can't easily find myself, right?

    Also any software that seems to work well. I personally use IB and a bunch of paper to track deal progress. That's it. I duplicate work but like drawing charts by hand, it makes me pay attention.

    Thanks, AT.
    Jan 21, 2015. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    I think on the deal CC management stated as much. But that's from memory. You can prob skim the Q&A section if they have it archived here on SA.

    I do remember them saying they would do what it takes to close out the deal. AT.
    Jan 14, 2015. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tribune Media: Outsmarting The Market's Misinterpretation Of Retransmission Renegotiations [View article]
    Thank you Gentlemen! I've been long this play too as a SOTP and reinvigorated management. So far it's been a waiting game to get noticed. Best, AT.
    Jan 14, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    FMI 50% tender. I am wondering if they will have an odd lot priority to 'protect' small investors? Anyone have experience in a partial tender like this? The dox on file mention proration past the 50% tender- no priority to 99shs. However, they are preliminary.....

    I like odd lots for the small accounts. Easy money. And here the spread is very, very attractive today. TIA, AT
    Jan 13, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Lorillard Deal Shareholder Votes [View article]
    Plus a decent dividend payment or two from LO! AT
    Jan 13, 2015. 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Powers Of 10 – How To Give It, Invest It, And Spend It In 2015 [View instapost]
    ssa- there is a chapter in Greenblatt's book and also Klarman's about Mutual conversions. (I think those are the books). That should get you started. Otherwise, you have to rely on those in the fraternity that do them on a regular basis.

    I've done exactly one, a home run. Easy money. AT.
    Jan 11, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Strategies For Controlling My ^#&%#!@ Emotions [View instapost]
    Yep, funny how the popular perception of trading (or investing, I tend to short term in/out tightly defined ideas) is a screaming, emotional lunatic. That is the exact counterpoint to what has led to success for me.

    One other point that you touch on is investors are really poor at challenging their thesis once they are invested financially and emotionally. Look no further than the goldbug crowd. They are amazingly easy to provoke...if you are comfortable with history and economics it's not hard to destroy many of the armchair arguments they make.

    Eli, your post is spot on. All I have to come up with is 20 ideas, 5% weighting each. It matters not if they are value, momentum, or arb. Risk control and high probability are all that matter. Bad years will happen but the past decade + has taught me what I do, works.

    Good post, Chris.

    PS-item #1 my wife and I term: 'everyone gets a trophy syndrome'...

    AT.
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    my opinion is that the deal is done and the spread is the result of the hangover from the ABBV blowup. I'm not aware of any deal being rejected by the Irish court but no doubt there is an example at some point.

    The other risk factor would be the Treasury trying some rules change to threaten a MAC on the deal but they have been quiet since they put a stake in ABBV/Shire. Best, AT.
    Jan 8, 2015. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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