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  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part 4  [View instapost]
    And that West Coast (PLNR?) company that was rolled up by a Chinese co and closed just after the vote. Prob the only Chinese deal to close on time in the past year....and their proxy was a mess...had the local china branch doing the loan in US$ and a couple other misfires. AT.
    Feb 12, 2016. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocata Shareholder Majority Rejects Astellas Offer As Woefully Inadequate  [View article]
    do a keyword search in the proxy for the transfer agent. they can probably help you- that is what they are hired to do. good luck. AT.
    Feb 12, 2016. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part 4  [View instapost]
    GMCR + SLH finance info. Why not just sell the entire debt pkg in EURO and use a swap to mitigate risk? Worked for subprime CLO's pretty well for a couple years....AT

    http://bloom.bg/1msUq8c
    Feb 10, 2016. 02:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Merger Opportunities: Keurig Green Mountain And RealD  [View article]
    missed the article. Dont know why they couldn't just do almost all the debt in euro and the bank could get extra fees for backing it with a euro/$ swap. Thanks.

    No idea on timing. Either the end of the month after the vote or w HSR delays use any date you want...60-90d extra? Could be 120. HSR is just a total black box. best, AT.
    Feb 10, 2016. 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Merger Opportunities: Keurig Green Mountain And RealD  [View article]
    yesterday the 1.875bb Term Loan B started trading in the aftermarket and moved up in price so the banks did a good job of pricing it right.

    The euro tranche was over subscribed several times after it got a bump in yield also last week.

    Above from a couple online sources I know of. I was never particularly worried about the debt. Best, AT.
    Feb 10, 2016. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part 4  [View instapost]
    CTCT- Heath, that was exactly what I was struggling to overcome yesterday....saw the BB headline (fairly widely repeated elsewhere) and it implied they withdrew from marketing the loan. And I had seen earlier Reuters (late Friday) quoting terms so it seemed an about face. Then the PR came out, indicating the loan did indeed go through.

    In any event, someone or some service KNEW what was up....because after the ugly open off the BB headline someone absorbed several million shares and put a floor on the equity. No doubt the SEC is all over that one, right?

    Selective dissemination is a pet peeve...

    Congrats to longs here. You earned it.

    SLH- looks like the roadshow is going OK based on the price action and CTCT closing has to be a harbinger of good things. Why the March guidance from Mgt? being conservative? The debt should settle (assuming sold) in T+5 days so Feb 19-24 would be reasonable? Or I'm missing something.

    AT.
    Feb 10, 2016. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Merger Opportunities: Keurig Green Mountain And RealD  [View article]
    Your math is correct, but I'm not sure how accurate that is. As an example, there was (and I don't have the # here) an active put market on PCP/BRK. Buffett closes his deals, always. So short of massive fraud it was viewed as a safe long. At some point the odds of closing are north of 99% but math simply does not a allow for it.

    There are also political considerations in the form of HSR or MOFCOM that would render that put useless if the deal closing is pushed out to say June or even later.

    Speaking from experience, I tend to incorporate that options math but only use it as 1 of many factors when I make a decision. Certainly it's not in the top 4-5 things that I consider an indication of the closure of a deal.

    FWIW, look at CTCT yesterday. Puts were off the charts and call premium was tiny....Feb OTM puts were over .30-.50 and Mar calls were trading 1.80-1.9 all day- what does that tell you?. And that deal was about as close to garbage as you can get without complete failure.

    GMCR OTM calls have been very active and at what is to me a ridiculous premium. I have no explanation for that, either. Makes no sense as no one is expecting a higher bid. Best, AT.
    Feb 10, 2016. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part 4  [View instapost]
    someone has bt 1mm shs so far this am (in 1 hr) circa 30$ on a crap stock. That's real money. I'm guessing they know some good news is coming.

    They could bridge it and remarket in a couple months.
    I'm no expert on debt but that's pretty much the only way this closes unless they re-start the MP to get another month. Heath prob knows a lot more about this stuff than I do. AT
    Feb 9, 2016. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part 4  [View instapost]
    BB headline: EIGI pulled the loan. no other details.
    Feb 9, 2016. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part 4  [View instapost]
    has to be related to the debt MP. Loan commits due 2/3 and GS had a sr unsec to sell. Should have closed this week at some point.

    The debt market is the last place insider trading is Legal, alive and well....AT
    Feb 9, 2016. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qihoo 360 Technology: Almost Riskless 20% Annualized Merger Arbitrage  [View article]
    Chinese deals just tend to move slower through the process for some reason. I have no idea if it's the effort to translate business documents accurately, etc but the filings can just take forever. Look at MTSN which just finally filed their prelim the other week.

    It all comes down to the passing dox back and forth but it can take forever if you are waiting to be cashed out as an arb!

    FWIW, creates a compelling risk/reward as the Chinese (so far) keep their word and close deals, even while spreads stay wide. Best, AT.
    Feb 9, 2016. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Merger Opportunities: Keurig Green Mountain And RealD  [View article]
    Look at the puts on almost any chinese deal. They are expensive.

    Or any recent LBO deal. Also expensive.

    You have a situation where buyers (arb funds) are forced to buy protection for at least a portion of their investment. If you don't understand how arb funds work (basically the only buyers at this point as fundamental coverage has been dropped) then it's easy to make the mistake that price=information. Best, AT.
    Feb 9, 2016. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crestwood: The World's Cheapest MLP May Be In Play  [View article]
    Thank you for that information. Much appreciated and very thorough breakdown of everyone's risks here. High stakes poker but working together seems the realistic approach.

    Best, AT.
    Feb 8, 2016. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crestwood: The World's Cheapest MLP May Be In Play  [View article]
    One thing I haven't clarified on the Quicksilver request is CEQP gathering or just carrying the gas after it leaves the field? If they are gathering CEQP could play hardball and just tell them to find another firm to haul the gas, which is doubtful in this capital constrained environment.
    Feb 8, 2016. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qihoo 360 Technology: Almost Riskless 20% Annualized Merger Arbitrage  [View article]
    That is not correct, read the proxy and MA.

    As a practical matter, they have to bless the final dox to get a vote date. Best, AT.
    Feb 8, 2016. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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