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arbtrader

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  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    Heath- Have I missed it or has CIFIUS been confirmed as filed and accepted?

    My notes say 6/10 they said 'near future'. Add 30d to acceptance(7/10), 30d+45d and you have a Sept 1-30 timeframe. I'm assuming CIFIUS will run the clock due to the SOE involvement in the PE group.

    Also, any sense of MOFCOM and will this be a Simple filing or require time past the 30d simple? I have not seen much on this matter.

    Thanks for the update, much appreciated. FWIW, I think this could reasonably be finished v late Q4/early q1 2016 depending on MOFCOM and Tiw approvals and filing/timing. Best, AT
    Aug 28, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    HME, ODP- anyone note the last para in the HME K filed the 27th about parties not invoking a MAC and other nasty things? I'm sure I have seen language like it before, but it really looks like the couple about to divorce making nice at the Family Christmas party in front of Grandma.

    I've wondered at the spread being so high and I seem to recall the buyer is litigious but can't place the specific deal(s).

    ODP- morning laugh. News Flash: Postal Union opposes monopolies, says they lead to expensive, inefficient services ....ahem... http://tinyurl.com/p8g...

    Best, AT.
    Aug 28, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    PLL- JF, S&P index change on Friday close. Does that mean that it will close then too? The price says yes. Best, AT.
    Aug 27, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    I read the EU decision and it's strange. When I have seen divestitures required before, the co places the division into a trust (arm's length) and then it's sold. Once removed to the trust the deal can close.

    In this case, the deal is conditional upon the divestiture AND EU approval of the buyer, AND SIAL has to retain ownership of the assets till sale. (My read of the dox, you can find them online).

    So basically we are waiting for the new buyer to get approved, and close the deal. My interpretation.

    As for price action, no idea. I tend to assume that in selloffs Arb plays become a source of cash in traditional portfolios to buy into favorite stocks that got knocked down. Best, AT.
    Aug 27, 2015. 11:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    I'm just smart enough to know the difference betw smart and lucky. I was lucky that my POM position was closed out on Friday Ex. I debated opening another position but the premium said the deal was done.

    I was very surprised at this turn of events. Frankly, I (and several others) assumed that the foul mix of local politics would have lots of whispers pushing the price in the direction of the correct decision to reward friends/allies/frenemies. The price action and volume said the deal was done.....Again, I was wrong.

    GL, AT.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Deal Stocks With Returns Like Growth Stocks [View article]
    David- read Greenblatt's little black book of investing for a good start. Then google and read everything you find about arb.

    ....And read every single post on SA about deal stocks or Arb. Then do it all over again. Spend a few hours a day reading the news and SEC filings for deal stocks.

    Speaking as someone who has been at this for more years than I care to admit (and have reasonable confidence in my abilities) it's a continuous process that requires time. You don't sit around and do this once a month successfully (In my opinion). Best, AT.
    Aug 19, 2015. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    ISSI- MS, no clue on the div pmt, sorry!
    Best, AT.
    Aug 19, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 18% Annual Return With Avolon [View article]
    Wasn't Bohai forced into the position of buying the whole of AVOL by another, unnamed buyer showing up trying to take down 100% when they found out it was in play?

    It's always nice to have a backup bidder in place if the primary walks.

    BTW, stock got hit today. Presumably on the negative China stock mkt action last night (8/17). It's an even better deal at 30.00. Best, AT.
    Aug 18, 2015. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    http://yhoo.it/1Niee9G
    ISSI updates. Taiwan seems to be proceeding but the CIFIUS refile is a concern. I have 'heard' that CIFIUS is going to run the clock on any semiconductor approvals so the 30+45d could push us into early November to finish. Even with a quick acceptance 30d puts us into late Sept. Possibly they get some credit for the work CIFIUS has done during the prior period, who knows? They did slip the timeline to 'early Q4' as a possibility. Best, AT.
    Aug 18, 2015. 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Informatica: 2 Last Day Filings [View article]
    Late freakouts seem to be more common in the HFT era vs say 8-10-12 years back.

    I strongly agree positions sizing is the key. Anyone who does not understand this concept should google 'kelly formula' before you risk another dime.

    SSA- maybe worth an article even if you outline and post links to other sources to expound on the idea.

    Best, AT.
    Aug 18, 2015. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    SFXE- Heath, thanks for the comments.

    To be clear, I agree a go-shop meets the general obligations of the BOD fiduciary.

    My issue(s) was with the break fee settlement in stock valued at 5.25, and the BOD's agreement to that. On top of that, they let him get an agreement with no finance in place. Then, they did a bizarre equity sale in the midst of the go-shop with zero explanation. (as if that would HELP the value of the equity?) Finally, they allowed an extension of time to deliver the finance commitments.

    Fundamentally, if the deal is 'broken' then it seems obvious that the stock is NOT worth 5.25.

    Any of the above points could slip through in a deal and we have both seen small cap deals that don't pass the smell test. However, in this case there were multiple times the BOD allowed Sillerman to effectively do whatever the heck he wanted.

    Not trying to start an argument, just to clarify what I thought was going on and vent a little. Best, AT.
    Aug 18, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    I'm not the one to do it, but I'd like to see a 'real' suit vs the BOD for their utter and complete failure to uphold any kind of appearance of acting in a fiduciary capacity.

    That would create a powerful precedent for the future.

    Unfortunately, the ankle-biters will sue as they always do and the insurance company will settle with no resolution. The board will quite likely compensate Sillerman for his brilliant leadership through this crisis with a boatload of equity options.

    He will have to come out of pocket for the shares he sold the put rights with, at least in theory. Best, AT.
    Aug 17, 2015. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Merger Stocks Held By Fund Managers [View article]
    SSA- great summary and I'd love to see it done quarterly.

    Question: Mind sharing which fund has 12% of their NAV in ALTR and/or their track record? I like the deal a lot but the price spread is scary to look at. A smart fund owning 12% there would be a large vote of confidence.

    Thanks again, AT
    Aug 17, 2015. 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    SFXE- these PR's are keeping the intern from the local High School busy, aren't they?

    Maybe I missed it but isn't SFXE due a small break fee (in stock, @5.25) for Sillerman not delivering finance details when due and therefore breaking the deal?

    I look forward to the other PIPE party suing to enforce their put rights @5.25 to Sillerman also.

    My losses are on the books but interesting to see how tangled the CEO gets in the mess he has created. Best, AT.
    Aug 16, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    MS- I have not heard of Personal Capital. However, I remember that Barrons has done several articles about tax reporting tools (which basically do what you are talking about) and evaluated them. Usually appear around Feb-Mar tax prep time. Worth time to google that because they break out products for 'active traders' like us...AT.
    Aug 3, 2015. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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