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arbtrader

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  • Chance To Profit Off The SFX Entertainment Going Private Transaction? [View article]
    Re: #2, IIRC he got the deal without delivering any finance details to the BOD but did deliver a guarantee that there was no finance out.

    Usually, a bank will deliver a letter assuring that funds are available if x, x and z happen. There is no letter here.

    Sillerman has said he wants to do all-cash but as the poster notes he's not exactly trustworthy.

    Jeffries is his rep and they can work magic on junk finance now....but this would be a hurdle.

    He has to deliver finance details at the end of the 45d goshop. cash or debt, whatever. The break fee is only 1% till then. So he walks for 7-8mm plus the stock he has to buy at 5.25 from the two finance parties that did the stock deal. (and WTF is up with that? It turned a shaky deal into kryptonite with that left-field capital raise with no warning)

    I like all the Buffett points but this is not a Buffett deal. More like high stakes gambling (with casino odds)

    Best, AT.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    http://bit.ly/1f1qopw

    There was a PSC meeting last week in the hometown of the PSC chairman who was very vocal about not being happy regarding the merger. I don't have a transcript, not hard to imagine he let a few zingers fly in front of his voter base.

    It correlates with the price drop in CNL and the only thing I could find.

    I'll note in the past he-PSC chair- has not been a NO vote, just more of: 'they better pay up and take care of my people to get this through.' Best, AT.
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    MT- it's an odd one. Maybe a combo of the divestment and CIFIUS? We should know on CIFIUS hopefully on the vote date as they were due to file circa the def proxy.

    The spread is crazy. I just put a position on (way too early) and now I just ignore it till I see something that leads me to believe it's in trouble (other than the price). The upside here is OVTI is damaged goods for sure and the premium will be there till the last minute, IMO. Plenty of time to buy more, and with much more visibility on the outcome.
    Jul 1, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    CNL is getting interesting...dropped to recent lows today. No news I could find...but Utilities have been getting whacked good as an asset class the past couple months...end of quarter also.

    Seen anything negative I missed recently? Best, AT.
    Jun 30, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    jfeldman, right on. I had a deal in front of the NY PUC for approval years back. It was the last (LAST) approval prior to close a multibillion deal where the utility had agreed to invest additional funds in poor upstate NY counties. etc, etc.

    Everyone was for the deal.

    As the meeting opened, the utility vote was tabled to the next meeting. One key commission member was not there in order to 'plan her wedding'. Seriously. Next meeting (weeks later) it easily passed.

    I could cut/paste 100's of email replies from regulators with non answers to questions like: when will the next meeting be, is this the last approval your department needs, etc etc.

    It's part of the game but if you assume anything approaching ambition to serve or timeliness from the government you are a fool. AT
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    Because the FCC is an absolute black hole. Nothing comes out once it goes in. Seriously.

    There is a timeline they can start/stop at will so it's really just a reminder how long they have been sitting there collecting data.

    AT
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    I'm sitting on my hands with a sinking feeling in my gut here. The price not budging off the floor set this morning is not really encouraging either. Unfortunately this deal seems to small to attract any business press coverage (so far). Best, AT
    Jun 18, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    to my view, he has increased his economic exposure to the deal/company via the put option. So even if he breaks the deal during the go-shop and pays 1% he still is on the hook for the 15mm approx via the put right.

    Agree it's strange and don't see the rationale unless they are really that bad-off...however why not try for a lower offer first? I'd have been happy to loan him the $ at 4.50 with the put right.....not bad for 90d+ work...

    MT- what is your read of the game theory here?
    Jun 18, 2015. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    yes, the rumor was via a pvt service and then picked up by BB headline...AT
    Jun 15, 2015. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    Yes, my notes show Brazil and MOFCOM are outstanding but that has not been updated in many weeks and could easily have been resolved by now. Good news though, esp in light of the negative rumor a couple weeks back. GL, AT.
    Jun 15, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    Good. This deal has been Waiting for Godot.
    Close promptly or wait another week?? AT
    Jun 12, 2015. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    ..that's why its called RISK arbitrage. At the deal price I rarely want to be holding any stock for the LT that I am in purely for the takeout.

    Occasionally you get lucky. Not often. The rest of the time you have to calculate if there is sufficient reward for the risk to your investment. Best, AT.
    Jun 12, 2015. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    MT- agree that it's one you hold your breath and buy into. I looked at every angle here and other than walking away for the optionality of the break fee expense I think it should close.

    After the 45d go-shop I expect more clarity:funding dox filed and break fee goes up. Until then it will be in limbo. (I also think it should close faster than Q4.)

    One of my larger positions....prob would be larger but cash-constrained by the sheer # of deals right now.
    Jun 5, 2015. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    There is no finance-out but also no mention of finance in place in the agreement. Only the promise to deliver after the go-shop concludes. Sillerman subsequently said he wanted to do all equity, no debt. He's rich so maybe he will lever other assets? Jeffries is his banker so it's hard to foresee any issues w them raising the cash if debt is needed..they have been jumping into deals the past year and pushing out the older-line banks.

    Still, it's a big missing piece to the puzzle. Anything else you see lacking? AT.
    Jun 4, 2015. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arbitrage, Event Driven, & Value [View instapost]
    Well said, Chris. You should do an article on what terms people confuse with value investing. Like: 'buy and hold' or: 'high dividends' etc. AT
    Jun 4, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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