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swiftlet

swiftlet
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  • A Conservative Micron Analysis [View article]
    I have a bearish report from RBC, issued on Jan 03, 2014, PT=19
    Key points:

    1) softer trends in mobile (~25% of revenues);

    2) Joint Venture structure (a barrier to achieving peerlike gross margins);
    ...
    We highlight that Intel’s NAND supply agreement and Nanya resales
    (representing ~1/3 of DRAM wafer capacity) limit operating margin
    expansion (even after annual reset).

    3) on-coming DRAM and NAND supply (without having industry leading solutions).

    4)Structurally Handicapped with Too Many Fab Locations,
    ...
    the company has wafer fabrication facilities across seven locations (excluding Inotera JV) in 5 countries

    5)Cash flow is below reported earnings:
    ....
    The growth of free cash flow maybe constrained on-going
    capital needs to upgrade and consolidate production. Both Elpida and
    RexChip will require significant capital to migrate DRAM nodes, while 3D
    NAND may also require a material increase in CapEx levels.

    RBC FY14 and FY15 EPS estimates are reset to $1.96 (vs. prior
    $2.66) and $2.60 (vs. prior $2.70).
    Mar 23 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Really Has To Execute Now [View article]
    I believe you mean "$300M" cash instead of "$300K".

    According to the Q3-2013 CC,
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    "We ended the quarter with $323 million of cash and approximately $1 billion of debt."


    http://on.mktw.net/1jS...

    Total Accounts Receivable: 58.49M
    Inventories: 171.25m

    $1 billion - (323m + 58.49m + 171.25m) =~ 447 m

    only 447m of REAL debt TC have to pay, big deal?

    The extra $1 billion showing on the balance sheet was actually cash received from RGLD, which was not the debt TC need to pay back the money.
    Feb 20 07:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products CEO On Latest Boom: It's Different This Time [View article]
    Hi J.J.

    I tried to figure out what's the strength of this company, but couldn't find any useful information on their web site.

    Any idea why AFOP's customers want to buy products from this company?
    Price? Relationship? Quality? or their products are IP protected?
    Feb 16 07:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Fiber Optic Products Offers 30% Upside [View article]
    I believe the analyst is Dave Kang from B. Riley, the only analyst cover AFOP.
    Feb 12 01:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Educated On Chegg And Make Some Money [View article]
    CHGG have only 16MM cash, and last quarter FCF was -18MM.

    one more Core Risk Factors could be:
    CHGG may run out of cash and file bankruptcy NEXT quarter!

    good luck!
    Feb 3 03:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading Between The Lines Of Micron's Q1 Report [View article]
    it's a shock to me that Wuxi fire has 0% increase on $MU dram ASP!
    Jan 8 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bullish On Micron In The Low $13s [View article]
    The latest short number is 93M, about 9% of float.
    Currently 95% of shares are held by institutions.
    a simple math: 95+9 = 104%
    I wonder where could those short sellers find the additional 4% to cover their short position, if necessary.
    Aug 29 11:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Micron Hide $3.00 In EPS? [View article]
    Actually I am quite happy that the stock isn't up now.
    After the CC, I have decided to sell my other stocks and accumulating more MU.
    MU bound to go up, bearish will see it after this Sep/26 MU earning report.
    Aug 9 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile - Pure Play Mobile Game And Mobile Security Hyper-Growth Company Is Still Dirt Cheap [View article]
    any reason why nq is overpriced at $18?

    when QIHU was $30, I believed it was over priced too.
    I was lucky that I didn't short it when it was $40, even I believed it's extremely overpriced.

    Im long NQ now.
    I will be grateful if your expertise can save my $$$.
    Aug 6 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Promising Opportunities With Major Customers For ChipMOS [View article]
    according to Chipmos web site:
    http://bit.ly/186PHNk

    "The Company and ChipMOS Taiwan will continue to work towards satisfying the eligibility requirements for listing ChipMOS Taiwan on the Taiwan Stock Exchange ("TSE") in the second quarter of 2014"
    Aug 6 02:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After-hours top Gainers / Losers [View news story]
    According to Yahoo! finance:
    BIDU After Hours : 139.97 Up 0.27 (0.19%) 6:59PM EDT
    CLF After Hours : 20.76 Up 0.18 (0.87%) 7:27PM EDT

    BIDU -4%? CLF -5%?
    Aug 3 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bullish Case For Himax, Using The Piotroski F Score [View article]
    I'm long HIMX right before Jul ex-dividend.

    Seem like nobody care about Innolux any more.
    If HIMX's going to be at $9 or $10, soon, will you dump it at $5.25?
    Innolux must have known the deal between HIMX and Google before the second offering.
    Jul 28 05:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Smarter Way To Invest In Nvidia [View article]
    The idea could be smarter than owning the stock only if an investor is not selling naked put. He must be willing and preparing enough money to buy the stock if necessary during the 18 months, must NOT seeing the $2.80 premium as obligation free money.

    I couldn't find any word mention about the risk and obligation in your article. Are you suggesting your readers to sell naked put or what?

    "allow the stock to decline 15% before you realize any type of loss"
    this is correct only if the investor want to commit up to 18 months, have no intention to buy close the put earlier, and have the ability to buy the stock with 15% discount during the 18 months.
    But if NVDA stock price trade downside after selling the put option, the option price will rise. The investor cannot quit the 18 months game earlier without a loss.
    Jul 13 03:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Smarter Way To Invest In Nvidia [View article]
    You should at least mention what's the risk of this so call "smarter" idea. what's the potential HUGE loss?

    18 months is like a generation for a tech stock, you will never know if NVDA is going to trade above $20 or dip under $1 after that long.

    When happen if NVDA is trading under $1 after 18 months?
    Should we sue you to get our money back? because we believe your idea is a "smarter" way with NO risk, which you never mention that we could have a loss up to $12+/share ! .

    I don't think this is a "smart" idea, this is nothing but gambling.
    One worst gambling with limited max profit but 4 times max loss.

    If NVDA have a sudden huge dip for whatever reason during the 18 months, and if anybody exercise your options at that moment, your golden opportunity could be a tragedy!
    Jul 12 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangdang: 4 Reasons To Be Long [View article]
    "3. Traffic metrics are increasing"
    Hmm?

    http://bit.ly/15pAXth;

    You should compare dangdang with Amazon.CN, the amazon china site, dangdang's traffic is not increase as much as amazon.cn does.

    Please do not ignore dangdang have 40% bounce rate (=useless traffic), amazon.cn have only 27.9%.


    http://bit.ly/15pAZRR;

    The "Time on site" chart shown that China are spending a lot more time on amazon.cn than dangdang (12minutes vs 5 min, >100%!).


    "4. Strong brand"
    Both traffic and TOS charts shown that amazon.cn must have stronger brand than dangdang

    I believe amazon.cn is going to eat either dangdang's market share or margin, or even worst, both, sooner or later.

    Long dangdang? No, no, the chinese amazon is facing the real Amazon in china now! I believe dangdang is the stock you must play hit and run, but not buy and forget.
    Jul 7 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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