Shameless Ko

18 Comments

    • ON: Thu Jan 31st 22:57 PM
      Commented on:
      Google's Numbers Fall Short
      Neither. If you are still long right now, just hold your shares. If you sold, don't buy any more. Google will be range bound between $500-$550 for a long time(at least 3 months until the next earnings report.) But in the long term, google cannot sustain 50% growth y/y and will go back to $450-480 range. However that range won't be here for another year or two. Use alexa.com to see what I mean. Google has been flat on traffic. Youtube however is bringing in the dough, growing at superb rates. Since I fail to see how they can turn youtube's traffic into significant revenue(plus, the traffic to youtube is expensive for bandwidth), Google will be flat.
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    • ON: Thu Jan 31st 04:00 AM
      Commented on:
      FOMC Policy Statement: Time to Buy Heavy
      Cool, Seeking Alpha sending more idiots to buy.

      The correct response is to short. Morons. Oh well, I will take your money.

      It's hardly done, we are just in the beginning of going into a recession, of which nobody knows how long it will last.
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    • ON: Sun Jan 27th 17:54 PM
      Commented on:
      Are Solar Tech Stocks Being Unfairly Trampled in the Rush?
      Solar stocks are so grossly overvalued, let me get your brains straight.

      I treat solar stocks such as FSLR and SPWR as home builders. They buy semiconductor material and put it on top of people's roofs. Basically they are home builders with exposure to the alternative energy. So my question to you is this: why not buy the supplier of the semiconductors? WFR for example has the same SOLAR exposure, yet it trades at 22 times earnings vs FSLR's 120 times earnings, or SPWR's 300+ earnings.

      They are treating the "contracts" as if the margins are guaranteed. If there is anything for sure about the solar stocks, you buy up the suppliers and short the "home builders".

      Buy some WFR and short some FSLR would be a totally hedged position.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Jan 27th 08:32 AM
      Commented on:
      Are Solar Tech Stocks Being Unfairly Trampled in the Rush?
      Readers of Seeking Alpha beware. Those writers give "opinions" that do not reflect actual market conditions. They want to suck you into LONG positions that they are shorting into.

      Look at their recent articles. Option Dragon piece of crap was saying buy AAPL before earnings, or this asshole is saying now to buy SOLAR? SUN Power reported 6 cents earnings and it's trading at 300 times earnings right now. FSLR is better, still trading at over 100 times earnings. AAPL is pretty much in the shithole too because ipod demand showed slowed growth. Those three stocks are the primary target of shorting. I guess you can listen to this "Kirk" guy, and lose your money.
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    • ON: Mon Jan 21st 11:11 AM
      Commented on:
      Trade a Bounce in Intel
      BTW, Greg, how's your bounce trade going? INTC is likely to open below $18.00 on Monday. $17.50 next week is very possible. Given the European trading information, $17.50 should be the first 1/4 buy. $15.00 should be the second 1/4. Then 1/4 every $1.00 down.
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    • ON: Sun Jan 20th 20:58 PM
      Commented on:
      Trade a Bounce in Intel
      Damn, I nailed it. To the penny. $19.00. Oh well. If you want to buy INTC, you should buy 1/4 here, 1/4 at $17.50, then 1/4 every dollar down. So the worst case is that Intel does to $15.50, and you are fully loaded. Dip into margins if it does below that.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Jan 18th 00:44 AM
      Commented on:
      Trade a Bounce in Intel
      $19.00 coming ...possibly as soon as next week.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Jan 17th 19:08 PM
      Commented on:
      AMD Reports Today, Expectations Low
      @Managing for Wall Street:

      Intel did miss, but not by much. Intel's miss however has a bad taste from the new CFO, Stacy(this guy is a moron). He guided the margins to be down sequentially and flat for the rest of the year when the transition to 45nm products should greatly help margins. The 15% hair cut is more due to his "he believes recession is coming guidance" than anything else, which I call "engineered"... The question then becomes, why? I have a hypothesis, but I do not dare sharing in the public.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Jan 17th 16:31 PM
      Commented on:
      AMD Reports Today, Expectations Low
      This is about the biggest BS I have ever seen. Intel reported revenue 1% below the estimate, and got a 15% hair cut. Amd reported the same 1% miss on revenue (1.77B actual vs 1.79B estimate). AMD lost $3.06 a share, then they say oh $2.89 of the loss was due to "ATI writedown". BS. I wonder how many more quarters of $2.89/share write down AMD can hide behind.
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    • ON: Wed Jan 16th 17:26 PM
      Commented on:
      Trade a Bounce in Intel
      Spell check please. I typed "Amateurs" and "downside" wrong...oh well, I am tired. Just be careful. Don't catch a knife when you think it could bounce.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jan 16th 17:23 PM
      Commented on:
      Trade a Bounce in Intel
      Amatueurs always trade on the LONG side, hoping to "trade a bounce". Your charts are shaped in a way to minimize the risk of the dowsize, which I see at $19 immediate, and as low as $17.5.

      If you really paid attention to the INTC quarterly conference call, you will see that this "earnings miss" was obviously "engineered"... lack of better words). Pay special attention to Jim Covello's comments and questions. The gross margins should be higher for the whole year, and Q1 projections should have been higher along with higher margins. Stacy was new CFO, first timer on the conference call, and he was dumb as a F*K.(again, listen to the conference call and only pay attention to Jim Covello from Goldman Sachs.

      Now, this begs the question why it's manipulated like it. I don't dare to say what I think is going on behind the scenes. Before you trade that bounce, be careful of what's below. I don't see anything that can prevent it going to $19 in a month or $17.5 in 6 months.
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    • ON: Mon Jan 7th 03:14 AM
      Commented on:
      A Contrarian Bullish Call on the PC Vertical
      GS, MS, BSC all need to upgrade INTC right now. Period. Bank of America and JPM should be ashamed of what they did, downgrading INTC twice in a week, especially on the day of weak jobs data.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Jan 6th 17:06 PM
      Commented on:
      Intel Corporation: A Newly Reborn Monopoly
      The downgrades for INTC from BoA and JPM were unethical at best. The two analysts should be investigated. If you look at their rationale for downgrading the stock, the JPM analyst said he expected 1 cent less on earnings. That's less than 1%. And his so called evidence was that Europe was slowing down. So what? The global expansion and growth in Asia will make up the difference by far. GS analysts have expected a global growth of 12% for 2008, even with US and Europe slowing down. Remember that majority of Intel's revenue comes from out of the US and Europe now. So what there is 50% chance of recession in the US? The rest of the world still needs INTC processors. In the contrary, a weaker US is better for INTC, foreign buyers will buy more iNTC processors because their purchasing power is helped by the weakness of the dollar.

      Let me tell you what's really going on behind the scenes. About 6 months ago, those bankers had a huge bet against INTC in a hedged position of Long AMD/ Short INTC/ Short NVDA. Well, they were so wrong on that, their hedged position were losing money on both sides. If you look at the pattern of downgrades, it is always a few weeks BEFORE earnings. That's right, they had to do it before earnings or they are toast. Nvidia had a blow out earnings, but they subdued it. I expect INTC to have a blow out earnings report too. Both INTC and NVDA should come out and raise their earnings expectations, and squeeze the fuckers out of their positions.

      View article »
    • ON: Sun Dec 23rd 03:39 AM
      Commented on:
      AMD Management Has Serious Communication Problems
      @CPu watchtower, I don't think they have a credibility problem. They lack engineering expertise.

      Their 65nm SOI process basically sucks. That was the reason why all 3.0Ghz Athlon X2s are released on 90nm SOI process. If you cannot produce 3.0Ghz X2s on 65nm process, how the hell are you going to produce a quad 3.0Ghz on 65nm process?

      Another practical evidence of how bad AMD's 65nm process: ATI's graphics chips are produced by TSMC. Well, you say why is it bad? Because it is evidence that AMD cannot produce ATI products. During conference calls, they say, oh it's a positive as TSMC is a capacity boost. I say it's bull shit. If AMD cannot produce ATI graphics chips, why do you think they have a chance to produce Fusion, which is the combination CPU+GPU chip? That's why Bulldozer went off the roadmap. It was a dozer to the bulls(hehe).

      Price target: $5.25 in April 2008 if Hector Ruiz gets his employment contract extended another year. If Hector Ruiz gets kicked out in April, AMD will trade $8.00. But we already know that he wants to stay, so it will be a pretty bad fight in the board room.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Dec 17th 04:58 AM
      Commented on:
      AMD Management Has Serious Communication Problems
      BTW, AMD is going to $7.50 in a month or so, you should fasten your seatbelts.
      View article »
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