strangewalk

8 Comments

    • Interview with Jim Rogers, Part II: China as World’s Best Long-Term Profit Play [view article]
      China has over 300 million Muslims living in countries that border its western frontier, which mostly means Xin Jiang Province. This area was mostly Islamic before being fully absorbed by China. Today, the Moslems living there have had serious restrictions placed on their freedom of worship (children are prevented from entering Mosques until they are 18 years old and their religious services are strictly monitored and required to promote patriotic loyalty to the atheist state), and they are treated as second class citizens by the transplanted Chinese. Aug 24 07:26 AM
    • Interview with Jim Rogers, Part II: China as World’s Best Long-Term Profit Play [view article]
      Jim Rogers made a killing as a slick hedge fund manager and real estate speculator--one of those guys who leverages and makes money without producing anything while robbing from those who do. The only bet to make in China is medical companies--within 10 years every third person in the country will be in an oncology ward owing to the ghastly pollution (which is getting much worse). China has no water, it can't feed it's people, it has seriously pissed off 300 millions Moslems living on its western frontier, it will soon have the oldest population in the world, and the government is so corrupt that the warlords who manage its rapid fragmentation could teach the oligarchs in Russia a thing or two. By the way, who will the Chinese copy and pirate from in the future?...and two thirds of their economy is based on exports from factories set up by foreigners,,, Aug 22 01:59 AM
    • International ETF Update: China, India [view article]
      As the consumer driven Euro and Dollar zones continue to severely weaken, havoc will visit China's export sector--a full 75% of its economy, with massive layoffs occurring even now in the prison factories sprawling over the Pearl River Delta. I'm also wondering how enthusiastically the denizens of Beijing will welcome a return to normal, after they've actually been able to breath air that's only rated 50% carcinogenic for three weeks. Of course, you can always follow Mr. Roger's lead and invest in the world's most technologically advanced counterfeiting, illegal copying and copyright infringement infrastructure--good returns there indeed. Aug 08 05:46 AM
    • Jim Rogers' Picks and Pans - Barron's Interview [view article]
      It's scary to contemplate that China could actually become the dominant world power. Article after article and book after book that I've read by insiders and experts consistently ring alarm bells, based on factual documentation, as to the pervasive government and business corruption, the absolutely god-awful environmental degradation (which is getting worse), the police state control and authoritarianism (fascism?), not to mention the opaque (is it crony capitalism or just corrupt communism?) economic system. The most basic service any government can provide to people is to ensure the safety of drinking water, and in China water from any faucet in any city or town will kill you! (even bottled water is suspect owning to the overwhelming degree of counterfeiting). The police here are all on the take, they're some of the worst gangsters, and ultra-nationalism is shoved down everyone's throat from all directions. I live here so I know somewhat of what I say. I've seen Rogers interviewed stating that China "is the best governed country in the world" (I'm glad he's an economist and not a politician)...By the way, isn't this something like what Lindbergh said at one time about Hitler's Nazi Germany? Apr 14 02:28 AM
    • Roubini Now Says House Prices to Fall 30% [view article]
      Fascinating stuff. We are in unchartered waters with this mess, there is just no precedent to mirror it. The historical examples of bubbles blowing from real estate investment/speculation excess is too thin to draw on for any kind of reliable forecasting, and even in those cases (Japan, 1920's Florida, 1980's California etc), the attendent economics were much different. In the case of Japan, their base economy, export machine and manufacturing infrastructure were still mighty engines of wealth creation. The US has debased its currency, outsourced its manufacturing to China and much of its IT industry to India. By far the biggest negative however is that Americans for the most part no longer constitute an energized talent-pool of dynamic, creative idealists with strong character and work ethic, in fact maybe just the opposite. As James H. Kunstler points out, "we're a nation of overstuffed couch potatoes and TV zombies", suffering from adolescent 'gimme, gimme' child psychosis, spending our time fantasizing on carnally debased websites and movies. The only thing we really have left is an unmatched in history military. We can still blow the hell out of everybody! Apr 09 01:51 AM
    • China's Global Impact: Inflation Exporter or Deflation Trendsetter? [view article]
      Most of China's output comes from foreign firms 'on wheels'. In fact there has recently been a small but significant transfer of production from China to lower wage Vietnam and Indonesia, a trend that possesses a lot of potential depth. In addition, in some production categories there is really not that much of an advantage to manufacturing in China as one might think, after factoring in shipping and other costs, along with almost certain future tariffs being imposed by China's largest export markets. These factors together with a stronger RMB, fast rising domestic inflation, and contraction/falling demand from abroad, will force China's factories to increase efficiency just to maintain current pricing on exports, or even to reduce prices. Unfortunately, the move toward automation in a manufacturing sector structurally dependent on exports will negatively impact China's ability to create new jobs, which even now are only being generated at half the rate which govenment planners deem necessary to insure social stability. Feb 21 12:31 AM
    • Should I Invest in China? [view article]
      I will stand by my comments except the one about the insolvent banking system (I'm basing that on a credible information source however.) I've taught English all over several provinces. Most of the people in China's countryside are poor. Even in the richest cities there is a tremendous level of poverty. Corruption personified--from what I've witnessed yes, although I'll certainly agree that China's system has no monopoly on corruption and may even be a runner up to the USA. Yeah...showcase is the right idea. Much of what happens in China today is for show, it doesn't have depth. Social unrest--how's over 75,000 recorded demonstrations against government corruption and unfairness in the last year alone?? Artificial value of the RMB...are you kidding? Oh, you forgot to mention my comment about pollution... Dec 06 11:36 PM
    • Should I Invest in China? [view article]
      Mr. Mulligan's observations on the Chinese economy tediously echoes a theme common to many foreign journalists. It seems likely that much of the analysis of China's economy takes place from the vantage point of the Sheraton Grand Plaza in Shanghai, with those surmising being attended to by elegantly dressed hostesses serving 5-star fare and (lots of) drink. For example, where did Mr. Mulligan come up with the "only 8% below the poverty line" number? Something dropped by a government bureaucrat while he was gazing out at all the new Mercedes and Lexus sedans flying by? (most of these are assigned to corrupt officials with connections, purchased by financing schemes arranged through a banking system known to be insolvent). Mr. Mulligan, get on a bicycle and tour the countryside where at least 70% of the masses eke out an existance. Then you'll know not to necessarily believe everything doled out by the propaganda ministry. Most of the people in China outside of the showcase urban centers frequented by foreign news reporters and business analysts are indeed, actually, poor, and in no position to consume even the most basic of stuff churned out by the vaunted export machine. Add to that, the pollution in China is so dreadfully, horribly awful that many see serious social unrest as an almost inevitable result. China is not only hampered by government and business corruption, it personifies it. China will soon face either hyperinflation brought on by the artificial value of its currency, or a huge reduction in exports as a result of revaluation. And speaking of bubbles, where I live in Shenzhen (bordering Hong Kong), residential real-estate was last year hopelessly out of reach to the average working professional couple, but has more than doubled in the past year! Dec 06 02:46 AM
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»