Strangewalk

Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2

It should be mentioned that the coal and oil-shale deposits in the US contain the equivalent energy of all the oil that's ever been extracted in history and that are projected to be used in the next century combined.

Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2

The US has by far the largest deposits of both coal and oil-shale of any country. And from everything I'm reading the technology exists to utilize it as an energy source while producing very little pollution. There has to be some kind of power-money-political game going on with oil--maybe some people understand it, I don't. The following is from Wikipedia:

Royal Dutch Shell has announced that its in situ extraction technology [of oil shale] in Colorado could become competitive at prices over $30 per barrel ($190/m3), while other technologies at full-scale production assert profitability at oil prices even lower than $20 per barrel ($130/m3).[43][55][56] To increase efficiency when retorting oil shale, researchers have proposed and tested several co-pyrolysis processes.[57][58][59]...

A 1972 publication in the journal Pétrole Informations (ISSN 0755-561X) compared shale-based oil production unfavorably with the liquefaction of coal. The article portrayed coal liquefaction as less expensive, generating more oil, and creating fewer environmental impacts than extraction from oil shale. It cited a conversion ration of 650 litres (170 U.S. gal; 140 imp gal) of oil per one ton of coal, as against 150 litres (40 U.S. gal; 33 imp gal) of shale oil per one ton of oil shale.[27]

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Gregman2: It will be a long, long....long time before it makes any sense to MFG in the US: Labor unions, armies of lawyers suing for any or no reason, over-weight, undisciplined labor pool with an 'I want it now' work ethic, shattered social fabric plagued by broken homes while awash in illegal drugs, idealism replaced by hedonism and internet porn addiction, and all of this led by corrupt and incompetent government and business leadership. Forget it USA, it's over.


On May 03 11:35 AM Gregman2 wrote:

> Jake, I love reading you--this is akin to the film "MadMax." I tend
> to a greee with a few of your points (and scenarios). I too have
> wondered what a total breakdown and Balkanization would look like
> in the U.S.
> But, in the end the single biggest problem we have is too much debt.
>
> If this ultimately is forced to be restructured we can begin to pro--
>
> gress. And ultimately if prices become cheap enough here it will
> make sense once again to manufacture in the U.S.;-)

2009 Economic Forecasts Ignore Demographic Shift

Genuine wealth creation and sustainable recovery via American manufacturing cannot return since the same factors (unions, environmental extremists, worker's comp shake-down lawyers, etc) that forced its move to China would just drive it back there again. The only kind of recovery that's plausible is a new round of credit expansion resulting from Chinese funding of US consumption. This model hopefully won't return again, so what's left?

Low Rates, Big Problems

Peter Schiff's underlying reasoning is sound to an extent, but it is also unbalanced and short sighted. The fundamental problems threatening both the Euro and Asia zones are just as deep and serious as those here in the USA, if not more so, just not as immediate or well publicized. As one example:

globaleconomicanalysis...

Much of China's recent boom is illusory and shallow. Without US and other direct investment creating labor-intensive, sweat-shop platforms for mass exporting, there would be very little left aside from the world's preminent high-tech counterfeiting and pirating industries (and a completely destroyed environment).

Peter Schiff seems to have 20-20 vision when surveying the American economic landscape, but wears rose colored glasses with the wrong Rx when gazing out across the Pacific or Atlantic. He won't admit to his investors the truth: he can run, but there's nowhere left to hide.

The Truth About Bailouts

I agree with those who say that assisting the automotive companies at this time is a unique issue, separate from bailing out the slippery, oily crooks on Wall St. and financial industry. GM and Ford especially have been getting their act together in terms of world beating quality improvements, dealing with the unions and restructuring in a serious, responsible way to compete as 21st century industrial powers, and their management now is top rate. The desperate situation they face is a result to some large degree of the general economic collapse and subsequent commodities bubble (high gas prices) caused by the slick con artists at Lehman, Countrywide, AIG etc. Peter Schiff is advocating throwing the the baby out with the bath water, and he missed it on this one.

China's Global Impact: Inflation Exporter or Deflation Trendsetter?

Most of China's output comes from foreign firms 'on wheels'. In fact there has recently been a small but significant transfer of production from China to lower wage Vietnam and Indonesia, a trend that possesses a lot of potential depth. In addition, in some production categories there is really not that much of an advantage to manufacturing in China as one might think, after factoring in shipping and other costs, along with almost certain future tariffs being imposed by China's largest export markets. These factors together with a stronger RMB, fast rising domestic inflation, and contraction/falling demand from abroad, will force China's factories to increase efficiency just to maintain current pricing on exports, or even to reduce prices. Unfortunately, the move toward automation in a manufacturing sector structurally dependent on exports will negatively impact China's ability to create new jobs, which even now are only being generated at half the rate which govenment planners deem necessary to insure social stability.