Strangewalk

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Gregman2: It will be a long, long....long time before it makes any sense to MFG in the US: Labor unions, armies of lawyers suing for any or no reason, over-weight, undisciplined labor pool with an 'I want it now' work ethic, shattered social fabric plagued by broken homes while awash in illegal drugs, idealism replaced by hedonism and internet porn addiction, and all of this led by corrupt and incompetent government and business leadership. Forget it USA, it's over.


On May 03 11:35 AM Gregman2 wrote:

> Jake, I love reading you--this is akin to the film "MadMax." I tend
> to a greee with a few of your points (and scenarios). I too have
> wondered what a total breakdown and Balkanization would look like
> in the U.S.
> But, in the end the single biggest problem we have is too much debt.
>
> If this ultimately is forced to be restructured we can begin to pro--
>
> gress. And ultimately if prices become cheap enough here it will
> make sense once again to manufacture in the U.S.;-)

This Is Just the Beginning

I agree with much of what Schiff says but he is just flatly in error with some of his assessments. For example, he like Rogers talks up a storm about China--the problem with this is that I lived there, and can see that they are just wrong. Rogers even went so far as to say China was the best governed country in the world. Ha Ha Ha! Why doesn't he live there then? Because there isn't any 'air'--it's a thick, carcinogenic soup leading to unprecedented rates of cancers and birth defects which will only get worse! A blacker, fouler vision of hell could not be imagined than to see some of the rivers there! Corruption levels are far, far worse than anything that exists in the US. It's estimated that 80% of the populace would vote to remove the illegitimate regime from power if they could! Most of the impressive architecture you see in Shanghai and other cities will last for 20 years before being condemned, the quality of construction is horrifying! China has run out of water, China will soon have the oldest average population in the world. China has an AIDS epidemic that is growing exponentially. China's claim to fame is entirely based on foreign investment that is now drying up and even leaving. Hey Schiff, is the world going to run from the Dollar to the RMB?...with the "greatest mass murderer of human history" Guiness award winner Mao smiling down from every note?

China's Global Impact: Inflation Exporter or Deflation Trendsetter?

Most of China's output comes from foreign firms 'on wheels'. In fact there has recently been a small but significant transfer of production from China to lower wage Vietnam and Indonesia, a trend that possesses a lot of potential depth. In addition, in some production categories there is really not that much of an advantage to manufacturing in China as one might think, after factoring in shipping and other costs, along with almost certain future tariffs being imposed by China's largest export markets. These factors together with a stronger RMB, fast rising domestic inflation, and contraction/falling demand from abroad, will force China's factories to increase efficiency just to maintain current pricing on exports, or even to reduce prices. Unfortunately, the move toward automation in a manufacturing sector structurally dependent on exports will negatively impact China's ability to create new jobs, which even now are only being generated at half the rate which govenment planners deem necessary to insure social stability.