16 Comments

    • ON: Tue Feb 6th 13:50 PM
      Commented on:
      Budget Deficit: What's $2.9 Trillion Between Friends?
      The problem with this post is its all armchair economics and lacks a fundamental understanding of economics, such as the power of incentives, lower taxes create higher tax revenue because they provide the incentive for business. If higher taxes were the anwser, try raising them to 100% and see how little tax revenue the government takes in.
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    • ON: Thu Jan 25th 10:34 AM
      Commented on:
      Feds Visit Steve Jobs At Apple HQ In Continuing Options Probe
      Technicolour, If you don't talk to investigators there is no chance of you lying to them. If you talk to them and you give information that is false (even if you think its true) you could be charged with obstruction of justice. Thats what happened to Martha, she thought she was telling the truth.

      This is not being dishonest, it is a way of protecting yourself from investigators representing an organization (government) which earns its keeps by dishonest means; extortion (taxes).
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    • ON: Wed Jan 24th 12:02 PM
      Commented on:
      Feds Visit Steve Jobs At Apple HQ In Continuing Options Probe
      Tommo, the situation you describe is exactly like Martha Stewart. She met with the SEC and look what happened to her, she was not even convicted for insider trading she was convicted for lying to the feds. Had she not met with the feds she would not have been convicted. Another is Hank Greenberg who did not met with investigators and as a result was not convicted or even trialed for anything.

      From a business and legal perspective I would never want any of my company executives meeting with government investigators as there is nothing that can be gained from such meeting and everything to be lost. So just for the future, when you have a company where the executives willingly start talking to investigators, it shows poor exercise of judgement and regardless of the outcome instantly increases the risk of the company without adding any reward.
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    • ON: Mon Oct 30th 11:11 AM
      Commented on:
      Buyer Beware: Oil Stocks Headed for a Correction
      how do you know oil stocks don't lead oil?
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Oct 11th 16:36 PM
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Wednesday Morning Ideas
      Well there is the other alternative, which is to cut taxes more, which will raise GDP and thus increase tax revenue as did the tax cuts of 2003.
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    • ON: Mon Oct 9th 11:07 AM
      Commented on:
      Looking at the Yield Curve: Time to Reconsider Stock Market Exposure?
      The sample size of the inversion is only 9 times, which is not statistically significant.
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    • ON: Mon Oct 9th 10:51 AM
      Commented on:
      Philip Davis' Valero Rule on Oil Stock Trading (VLO)
      This seems like a daytrading method, applying the same methodology to a different timeframe could be dangerous.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Sep 25th 10:03 AM
      Commented on:
      Amaranth: Tip of the Iceberg
      This post is just arm-chair economics and only take one false assumption to collapse the dominos of this argument. BTW, your so bearish on the brokers because of this hedge fund liquidation, but you overlook the fact that prime brokering a major component of their business and in order to meet margin calls they have to sell every $1.5B in assets for about $1B in cash to the prime brokers. That means the prime brokers on $6b are going to make about $2B in profits of this liquidation.
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    • ON: Tue Sep 19th 10:11 AM
      Commented on:
      Amaranth -- When Hedge Funds Forget to Hedge
      Buffet owns COP, so he is in the oil game.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Aug 31st 09:47 AM
      Commented on:
      All Signs Point to an Upcoming Bull Market
      Analysts are raising their estimates
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    • ON: Fri Aug 25th 09:35 AM
      Commented on:
      Earnings Season Conclusions: Steep Downside for Underperformers, Little Gain for Beating Estimates
      i guess this is bullish, since the information is not being reflected in price
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    • ON: Thu Aug 17th 09:51 AM
      Commented on:
      Stock Earnings Yields vs. Bond Yields 1/85-7/06
      Cant you also play this by spread shorting bonds & buying stocks, untill the spread narrows?
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    • ON: Sun Jul 2nd 11:57 AM
      Commented on:
      Microsoft Delays Office Rollout, Another Manager Defects to Google
      An excellent reatime experiment in growth vs value, GOOG vs MSFT.
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    • ON: Mon Jun 26th 13:33 PM
      Commented on:
      Phelps Dodge's Big Acquisitions May Indicate a Top in Metals (PD)
      Where are the stats which show "The mining industry has a long, proud and dishonorable tradition of brilliantly timing its largest investments with the absolute top of the market."? I think your mistaken, but if you have proof to the contrary, please share.
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    • ON: Mon Jun 26th 10:43 AM
      Commented on:
      Think Semi Inventories are High? Wait for the New Capacity to Arrive
      What makes you say this is not priced into semi stocks?
      View article »
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