gwinner

21 Comments

    • What the Online Banking Industry is Missing [view article]
      E*Trade does have one of the best approaches to secure "authentication&q... which is let the user choose between user name/password or using an RSA SecurID token. Much better than sites like BofA that use SiteKey or many Credit Union which use a list of security questions in addition to user name/password.

      Securing a web site is a much more involved process than just the authentication technology in use. That's what this article addresses. The concern is valid.       Jul 30 10:14 AM
    • Setting a New High Mark for the Next Housing Bubble [view article]
      A newer 3,600 sq. ft. home sold on July 10th in San Diego's 4s Ranch for $608k, which is a new low price threshold. That's down 30 to 40 percent from market peak for such a home. I previously "hoped" to see such a home in the $600k to $650k range by this winter. Expect more global cooling the Califoreclosia real estate market this winter to bring us back to reality. Jul 25 01:41 PM
    • Can Cities Create "Foreclosure Sanctuaries?" [Housing Tracker] [view article]
      Michael Aguirre is a joke, this is another attempt by him to garner press and try to bolster his campaign for re-election. If we re-elect him in November, we're fools. Jul 24 12:18 PM
    • Countering the AP's 'E*Trade Financial Earnings Preview' [view article]
      I'm a long-time customer and have been holding ETFC long but I got out of my position after hours (I wanted to sleep tonight). The stock will probably retreat into the $2 range yet again, almost certainly with the next macro mortgage meltdown, which is inevitable in the current economy.

      I'd like to know how much of their loan portfolio is ALT-A and Option-A (e.g., the next mortgage cliff)? Is anything else hidden shareholders should know about? I was disturbed by the announcement regarding Fannie and Freddie, was this well known (e.g., Cindy, did you know)? Why hadn't E*Trade disposed of these non-core positions before the recent free fall? I guess they were "trying" to avoid taking more losses in 2Q.

      Financials like BAC and WFC will be rewarded with increased business and stronger earning in Q3 and Q4 as opportunity, customers and money migrate their way. E*Trade has a longer, slower trajectory to recovery due to past transgressions. Great company and market opportunity, but saddled with untimely baggage left by the previous management team.

      Disclosure: No longer long       Jul 22 07:57 PM
    • IndyMac Failure: How Much Trouble Is Sen. Schumer In? [view article]
      Schumer's suggestion that IndyMac would fail and the resulting run was a disaster, it may have happened at some point, but his actions show an ignorance that should help us all realize how ignorant our elected officials can be. The subsequent excuse was classic, basically: "If everyone had done their job right, this never would have happened". You too Mr. Schumer. Jul 13 11:07 AM
    • Is the Long Commute Still Worth It? [view article]
      At market peak, a new 3,500 sq. ft. home in Temecula was $600k to $800k. Now, they're 40 to 50 percent of that. In San Diego, they still cost $800k+. At market peak, gas cost was an issue because the delta in home costs was not as significant. Now, it is significant. You can buy "a lot" of gas for what you'll save. In fact, property tax savings and a Prius or Aptera (Google it, coming to a Socal highway near you) will financially justify the decision so you can pocket the $300k to $400k you save each month in financing the comparable home in San Diego.

      Other family and personal issues are probably much bigger factors than gas prices in making a decision about living in San Diego vs. Temecula. The people who are hurting are those who bought in Temecula at market peak, have ballooning payments and are now also hit with higher gas prices.       Jun 12 03:30 PM
    • More Than 1,000,000 Homes In Foreclosure [Housing Tracker] [view article]
      Apostle lives in a land of abundant oil and agricultural commodities. Money is flowing to Alberta. There's no relief in site when an uneducated person can get a job on a drilling rig for $1,000/day. Jun 11 02:30 PM
    • Google Merchant Search: How Far is Too Far? [view article]
      Google will continue to aggressively push these boundaries. In a world driven by information, this is Gaia, and they know it. Look for them to win sometimes, draw elsewhere and loose sometimes. At the end of the day, they are data driven and avoid huge missteps. Jun 05 12:27 PM
    • Riverbed Under Pressure [view article]
      Riverbed has a disruptive technology that has broader application than is currently appreciated. They win deals hands down when benchmarks are performed by customers. The macro-economic environment is a concern. However, Riverbed will continue to achieve growth rates well above average. To value them based on the PE of peers is a mistake of the current macro-economic environment. Also, for GS to announce coverage at this time with a one year target at $15 smacks of something stinky. Jun 04 01:15 PM
    • Is Google Interested in Ormat's Geothermal Technology? [view article]
      There's enough geothermal energy 3 miles does on the west coast, such that harvesting 2 percent would supply for the entire nation's electric needs. With modern drilling techniques learned from the oil industry, it is within reach. Given that energy is of long term strategic interest to Google, it is easy to understand why they seek to make it a competitive advantage. It doesn't hurt either that the public will further enshrine Google if it helps bring long term relief to energy costs as well as decrease our dependence on rogue nations. May 22 01:14 PM
    • 2009 Home Price Forecasts: Up or Down? [view article]
      The median price in San Diego is already $415,000?

      Let's cut the PhD bashing on this site, it discredits your own post.       May 15 09:11 AM
    • NAR Home Sales Report Shows Some Nasty Declines [view article]
      My observation in California is that new communities, where significant sales occurred between 2003 and 2007, are the hardest hit. So, its spotty. In landlocked locations like SF, you didn't see massive build outs of new homes. You need not go all the way to Sacramento and Stockton to see this. Look across the bay to Contra Costa County (San Ramon, Brentwood, etc.) and you see the homeowner carnage, wailing and gnashing of teeth. May 14 12:49 PM
    • Is Google Its Own Worst Enemy? [view article]
      While I somewhat agree with what you say, one day in the not so distant future, you will wake up and say:

      Gee, 1,000 new business per day signing up for Google Apps, I guess that was a big thing after all.

      Or gee, getting people to embed Google Maps, Google Analytics and Google Bla Bla Bla into their web sites, everywhere, that was huge.

      Or, gee, Google Friend Connect and OpenSocial, that enabled the the average guy to create a Web 2.0 social networking site, that really was a trendy and spot one idea, especially because they can do it on Google Sites or Google Blogger.

      Or, gee, Google Apps Engine, hmmm, now that was a really subtle way to become the Internet application engine.

      And then you'll realize that the technology in and the worldwide build out of the "Googleplex" infrastructure has given them an advantage that no one, not Microsoft, not MicroHoo, not Amazon S3, can compete with with. And they funded it with a hugely disruptive search/advertising business model. And they have now figured out how to monetize it while reducing costs for such services to customers. And they have done to Microsoft what Microsoft did to IBM.

      And you'll then understand what they were up to and why they are hiring so many people and why they are so secretive about the Googleplex. Because they're increasingly, through the Googleplex, becoming the operating system of the Internet. If that's not a killer app, then nothing is.

      But don't feel alone, I know very bright people who work at Google who don't get what Google is up to. If there is a "slowing metabolism", it is made up for in multiples by increased brainpower and scale.

      Disclosure: Long on GOOG       May 13 12:57 PM
    • CAR Forecasts 24% Price Drop for California Houses [view article]
      "So it’s not like it’s not a problem"

      Classic! In San Diego, we had a huge run between 1997 and 2001, which was due for a correction. Then, Greenspan and the lenders added their pixie dust. The direction suggested in the article is empirically accurate, but bottom pickers at this point in time are soothsayers.       May 08 01:18 PM
    • Sun Still Clings to Java Dominance Pitch [view article]
      Sun has created amazing hardware and software but has two problems:

      1) The hardware, as McNeally wanted, was overruled internally and finally publicly admitted, should have been based on Intel and not Sparc.

      2) They have never figured out how to monetize software beyond increased hardware sales.

      Sun has a loyal Sparc customer base they can service for many years, but in age of Linux/Intel and "cloud" computing, significant growth will not come from Sparc hardware sales. Sun has achieved software ubiquity with Java and the acquisition of MySQL, but they have yet to articulate a credible story on how they will monetize this market position such that it will significantly impact their quarterly financials.

      The stock may bounce, but longer term prospects are not so clear at this time. Caveat emptor.       May 07 02:00 PM
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