gwinner's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/128503/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/143927-why-is-e-trade-s-ceo-giving-the-company-to-citadel?source=feed#comment-552331 552331
Citadel knows E*Trade better than anyone. It would not be in their best interest to overpay or underpay for E*Trade stock. E*Trade management telegraphed that current shareholders would be diluted and the market discounted the statement. In fact, the market reacted insanely last week upon learning that Ken Griffin had joined the board and a deal was forthcoming.

Wouldn't common sense suggest that meant current shareholders were about to be significantly diluted, as promised?

Wouldn't E*Trade management wait until it had announced good May results before dropping the dilution bomb?

Wouldn't waiting to make the dilution announcement a day later have been more manipulative of the stock price than timing it the way they did?

Citadel also has, from the initial deal, a competency in disposing bad loans (on which I'm guessing it has mined a significant profit). It is uncertain what that may mean for the future of E*Trade, but they are going to be inseparable from Citadel for the near future and that business knowledge in a close partner could be invaluable for survival.

That E*Trade no longer offers industry leading rates on savings accounts has got to be hurting deposits. Perhaps by easing the debt burden payed on notes they will resume paying high-interest rates to attract new customers and retain current customer deposits. I hope so. If new account growth slows or deposits move elsewhere, they may be toast.

Most emphatically, it may not matter that the mortgage loan portfolio performance is improving right now. The Option ARM/ALT-A reset/recast disaster begins this fall and will last 3 years. That "may" strike at the core of the E*Trade portfolio. Couple that with the ongoing HELOC bleeding and one would have to believe that management at E*Trade is very concerned.]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:44:26 -0400
Citadel knows E*Trade better than anyone. It would not be in their best interest to overpay or underpay for E*Trade stock. E*Trade management telegraphed that current shareholders would be diluted and the market discounted the statement. In fact, the market reacted insanely last week upon learning that Ken Griffin had joined the board and a deal was forthcoming.

Wouldn't common sense suggest that meant current shareholders were about to be significantly diluted, as promised?

Wouldn't E*Trade management wait until it had announced good May results before dropping the dilution bomb?

Wouldn't waiting to make the dilution announcement a day later have been more manipulative of the stock price than timing it the way they did?

Citadel also has, from the initial deal, a competency in disposing bad loans (on which I'm guessing it has mined a significant profit). It is uncertain what that may mean for the future of E*Trade, but they are going to be inseparable from Citadel for the near future and that business knowledge in a close partner could be invaluable for survival.

That E*Trade no longer offers industry leading rates on savings accounts has got to be hurting deposits. Perhaps by easing the debt burden payed on notes they will resume paying high-interest rates to attract new customers and retain current customer deposits. I hope so. If new account growth slows or deposits move elsewhere, they may be toast.

Most emphatically, it may not matter that the mortgage loan portfolio performance is improving right now. The Option ARM/ALT-A reset/recast disaster begins this fall and will last 3 years. That "may" strike at the core of the E*Trade portfolio. Couple that with the ongoing HELOC bleeding and one would have to believe that management at E*Trade is very concerned.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140364-fdic-reserve-ratio-plummets?source=feed#comment-524049 524049 Sat, 30 May 2009 10:19:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139660-revisiting-wamu?source=feed#comment-520397 520397
Yet another example of "government stimulus".]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 19:32:06 -0400
Yet another example of "government stimulus".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139030-the-next-wave-of-foreclosures?source=feed#comment-514264 514264
Well, "we've" already done it. Monetary and fiscal policy since 9/08 has pointed to a policy that suggests "they" intend to inflate us out of the problem. It is risky business. Leave the peddle to the metal just a little too long and your have our next really ugly economic problem, hyperinflation.

Ironically, in spite of all the rhetoric of the the Obama admin of being the friend of the working man, inflation and hyperinflation are the worst form of "taxation" on the poor and middle class (perhaps with the exception of state lotteries, but at least that is discretionary). Those with assets and "in the know" (e.g. the wealthy) stand to profit from inflation. Unintended consequences?]]> Fri, 22 May 2009 09:53:37 -0400
Well, "we've" already done it. Monetary and fiscal policy since 9/08 has pointed to a policy that suggests "they" intend to inflate us out of the problem. It is risky business. Leave the peddle to the metal just a little too long and your have our next really ugly economic problem, hyperinflation.

Ironically, in spite of all the rhetoric of the the Obama admin of being the friend of the working man, inflation and hyperinflation are the worst form of "taxation" on the poor and middle class (perhaps with the exception of state lotteries, but at least that is discretionary). Those with assets and "in the know" (e.g. the wealthy) stand to profit from inflation. Unintended consequences?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138618-construction-plummeting-is-good-news-for-housing?source=feed#comment-512077 512077
This is a deep cycle, but it is a cycle. Government fiscal and monetary policy are clearly aimed at an attempt to "safely" inflate us out of the financial mess and interest rates are at historic lows. However, if the guys at the controls don't get the "safely" part right, look out if you don't own a home with a fixed payment. If you're renting -- inflation won't be your friend and hyperinflation will be a cruel master.

I'm not calling bottom on the real estate market, rather I'm pointing out that there are compelling economic reasons to consider building a home now if that's been a harbored desire. It is also a form of personal stimulus built solidly on the backbone of private enterprise and capitalism.]]> Wed, 20 May 2009 18:41:50 -0400
This is a deep cycle, but it is a cycle. Government fiscal and monetary policy are clearly aimed at an attempt to "safely" inflate us out of the financial mess and interest rates are at historic lows. However, if the guys at the controls don't get the "safely" part right, look out if you don't own a home with a fixed payment. If you're renting -- inflation won't be your friend and hyperinflation will be a cruel master.

I'm not calling bottom on the real estate market, rather I'm pointing out that there are compelling economic reasons to consider building a home now if that's been a harbored desire. It is also a form of personal stimulus built solidly on the backbone of private enterprise and capitalism.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137676-suburban-housing-markets-are-unsustainable-part-2?source=feed#comment-505879 505879 > up for it?

You'd better be. Once the gravity of the situation became "clear" the Fed charted monetary policy that will result in inflation. I've been of the belief that was the end game all along to re-inflate housing prices "nominally". That will come at a price and there are already educated calls to take the foot off the peddle NOW before it's too late and we overshoot with hyperinflation. The fact that no one really knows where we are economically is partly a result of the aggressive counter measures. We're in uncharted waters everywhere you look.

Thank you for the article. More than any other I've read, it accurately summarizes cultural, economic and political facts regarding the financial crisis.]]> Fri, 15 May 2009 17:10:03 -0400 > up for it?

You'd better be. Once the gravity of the situation became "clear" the Fed charted monetary policy that will result in inflation. I've been of the belief that was the end game all along to re-inflate housing prices "nominally". That will come at a price and there are already educated calls to take the foot off the peddle NOW before it's too late and we overshoot with hyperinflation. The fact that no one really knows where we are economically is partly a result of the aggressive counter measures. We're in uncharted waters everywhere you look.

Thank you for the article. More than any other I've read, it accurately summarizes cultural, economic and political facts regarding the financial crisis.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135265-california-more-than-just-economic-problems-plus-some-potential-solutions?source=feed#comment-490398 490398 Tue, 05 May 2009 12:15:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133834-e-trade-why-the-strange-earnings-report?source=feed#comment-484364 484364 Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:45:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131010-the-next-leg-up-in-financials?source=feed#comment-465375 465375
Long on ETFC and BAC.]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:04:27 -0400
Long on ETFC and BAC.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126610-red-hat-poised-to-beat-the-street-in-upcoming-report?source=feed#comment-432662 432662 Thu, 19 Mar 2009 14:59:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125873-e-trade-a-bet-worth-making?source=feed#comment-424747 424747
I just called the E*Trade Mortgage number. As of today, they have started offering mortgages again. I think that is good news and another huge statement, if you trust the current management team.

Disclosure: Long on E*Trade, long-time satisfied customer and someone who trusts the current management team.]]> Fri, 13 Mar 2009 13:32:50 -0400
I just called the E*Trade Mortgage number. As of today, they have started offering mortgages again. I think that is good news and another huge statement, if you trust the current management team.

Disclosure: Long on E*Trade, long-time satisfied customer and someone who trusts the current management team.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120647-why-is-everyone-blaming-the-ceos-it-s-the-government-s-fault?source=feed#comment-390549 390549
Put Ken Lewis in with Barney Frank first. Two men enter, one "man" leaves. I know who my money would be on.]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:04:53 -0500
Put Ken Lewis in with Barney Frank first. Two men enter, one "man" leaves. I know who my money would be on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117646-new-home-market-inches-closer-to-normal?source=feed#comment-372155 372155
In San Diego, I'm still seeing long lines for gas at CostCo to save only a dollar or two on a tank of gas in a well off area. The US consumer is frightened and holding on to every dollar tightly.]]> Sat, 31 Jan 2009 17:08:54 -0500
In San Diego, I'm still seeing long lines for gas at CostCo to save only a dollar or two on a tank of gas in a well off area. The US consumer is frightened and holding on to every dollar tightly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116236-john-thain-called-out-by-the-president?source=feed#comment-365055 365055
High publicity stories of abuse like this by a wire line CEO can only accelerate this process.]]> Sat, 24 Jan 2009 13:57:22 -0500
High publicity stories of abuse like this by a wire line CEO can only accelerate this process.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116076-bucking-the-trend-with-a-microsoft-purchase?source=feed#comment-363970 363970 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 09:10:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115856-buying-up-bofa-booyah?source=feed#comment-363165 363165
The money engine at BofA backed by the US Treasury will weather the storm. CountryWide was bought at a fire sale price. The US tax payer has funded and backstopped the Merrill acquisition. The question in my mind is can they retain the Merrill customer base and integrate the cultures? If yes, both of these acquisitions will ultimately be accretive.

We may not have seen the bottom for their stock, but there is money to be made selling puts at $2.50 and $5.00, which lowers the downside risk of buying right now.]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 12:55:42 -0500
The money engine at BofA backed by the US Treasury will weather the storm. CountryWide was bought at a fire sale price. The US tax payer has funded and backstopped the Merrill acquisition. The question in my mind is can they retain the Merrill customer base and integrate the cultures? If yes, both of these acquisitions will ultimately be accretive.

We may not have seen the bottom for their stock, but there is money to be made selling puts at $2.50 and $5.00, which lowers the downside risk of buying right now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114040-an-alternative-to-the-trillion-dollar-deficit?source=feed#comment-351805 351805
It is also insane to make any proposal for government to do financial bailouts of entity's or individuals. Additionally, government is always less efficient than private industry and it is scary to contemplate what that will mean when they start to hand out infrastructure contracts on a massive basis. Real, sustainable economic growth always comes from the private sector and primarily from small businesses, which government can help more by getting out of the way more than by giving out money.

We need to fire Barny Frank, Chris Dodd, Chuck Schumer and a host of other clowns running our country who have not only been asleep at the watch, but actually promoted the contagion (if unwittingly, that's grounds enough to fire them, if otherwise, send them to jail where they can play poker with Madoff). Government needs to protect property rights and not redefine them through bailouts with our money. The time for a citizen's revolt draws ever closer. If they so much as give a dollar to bailout investors into Madoff's scheme, I'm the first on a plane to DC to start the revolution (no, I'm not going to fly the plane into anything).

Respectfully, all the revised bailout ideas I see posted to Seeking Alpha are more of the same insanity to try to sustain a course that is not sustainable. Is anyone in government willing to tell the citizenry we need to tight the belt, stop overspending "at all cost" and pull together to make it through what promises to be a very rocky ride?]]> Sat, 10 Jan 2009 14:04:58 -0500
It is also insane to make any proposal for government to do financial bailouts of entity's or individuals. Additionally, government is always less efficient than private industry and it is scary to contemplate what that will mean when they start to hand out infrastructure contracts on a massive basis. Real, sustainable economic growth always comes from the private sector and primarily from small businesses, which government can help more by getting out of the way more than by giving out money.

We need to fire Barny Frank, Chris Dodd, Chuck Schumer and a host of other clowns running our country who have not only been asleep at the watch, but actually promoted the contagion (if unwittingly, that's grounds enough to fire them, if otherwise, send them to jail where they can play poker with Madoff). Government needs to protect property rights and not redefine them through bailouts with our money. The time for a citizen's revolt draws ever closer. If they so much as give a dollar to bailout investors into Madoff's scheme, I'm the first on a plane to DC to start the revolution (no, I'm not going to fly the plane into anything).

Respectfully, all the revised bailout ideas I see posted to Seeking Alpha are more of the same insanity to try to sustain a course that is not sustainable. Is anyone in government willing to tell the citizenry we need to tight the belt, stop overspending "at all cost" and pull together to make it through what promises to be a very rocky ride?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113970-30-year-frm-rates-who-says-lower-rates-won-t-do-much-good?source=feed#comment-351093 351093
I agree with Deflation Rocks, I believe your analysis is correct and your patience will pay off provided interest rates don't go too high and you have enough cash (that's going to be a timing play). Most buyers in San Diego do not appreciate the risks of buying now and the low mortgage rates and current level of deflation are enticing them to act.]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 14:50:50 -0500
I agree with Deflation Rocks, I believe your analysis is correct and your patience will pay off provided interest rates don't go too high and you have enough cash (that's going to be a timing play). Most buyers in San Diego do not appreciate the risks of buying now and the low mortgage rates and current level of deflation are enticing them to act.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113046-as-goes-gm-so-goes-u-s-government-credit?source=feed#comment-346665 346665 Mon, 05 Jan 2009 14:42:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111901-rent-vs-buy-buying-becomes-more-attractive?source=feed#comment-336848 336848 Tue, 23 Dec 2008 14:00:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111198-deflation-is-just-around-the-corner?source=feed#comment-332442 332442 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 16:34:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99018-the-debate-mccain-s-insane-mortgage-proposal?source=feed#comment-277092 277092 Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:27:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98313-google-breaks-down?source=feed#comment-272867 272867 Fri, 03 Oct 2008 14:06:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87899-what-the-online-banking-industry-is-missing?source=feed#comment-218296 218296
Securing a web site is a much more involved process than just the authentication technology in use. That's what this article addresses. The concern is valid.]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 10:14:52 -0400
Securing a web site is a much more involved process than just the authentication technology in use. That's what this article addresses. The concern is valid.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87007-setting-a-new-high-mark-for-the-next-housing-bubble?source=feed#comment-214541 214541 Fri, 25 Jul 2008 13:41:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86752-can-cities-create-foreclosure-sanctuaries-housing-tracker?source=feed#comment-213461 213461 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 12:18:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86144-countering-the-ap-s-e-trade-financial-earnings-preview?source=feed#comment-211923 211923
I'd like to know how much of their loan portfolio is ALT-A and Option-A (e.g., the next mortgage cliff)? Is anything else hidden shareholders should know about? I was disturbed by the announcement regarding Fannie and Freddie, was this well known (e.g., Cindy, did you know)? Why hadn't E*Trade disposed of these non-core positions before the recent free fall? I guess they were "trying" to avoid taking more losses in 2Q.

Financials like BAC and WFC will be rewarded with increased business and stronger earning in Q3 and Q4 as opportunity, customers and money migrate their way. E*Trade has a longer, slower trajectory to recovery due to past transgressions. Great company and market opportunity, but saddled with untimely baggage left by the previous management team.

Disclosure: No longer long]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:57:30 -0400
I'd like to know how much of their loan portfolio is ALT-A and Option-A (e.g., the next mortgage cliff)? Is anything else hidden shareholders should know about? I was disturbed by the announcement regarding Fannie and Freddie, was this well known (e.g., Cindy, did you know)? Why hadn't E*Trade disposed of these non-core positions before the recent free fall? I guess they were "trying" to avoid taking more losses in 2Q.

Financials like BAC and WFC will be rewarded with increased business and stronger earning in Q3 and Q4 as opportunity, customers and money migrate their way. E*Trade has a longer, slower trajectory to recovery due to past transgressions. Great company and market opportunity, but saddled with untimely baggage left by the previous management team.

Disclosure: No longer long]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84698-indymac-failure-how-much-trouble-is-sen-schumer-in?source=feed#comment-204265 204265 Sun, 13 Jul 2008 11:07:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81050-is-the-long-commute-still-worth-it?source=feed#comment-184438 184438
Other family and personal issues are probably much bigger factors than gas prices in making a decision about living in San Diego vs. Temecula. The people who are hurting are those who bought in Temecula at market peak, have ballooning payments and are now also hit with higher gas prices.]]> Thu, 12 Jun 2008 15:30:32 -0400
Other family and personal issues are probably much bigger factors than gas prices in making a decision about living in San Diego vs. Temecula. The people who are hurting are those who bought in Temecula at market peak, have ballooning payments and are now also hit with higher gas prices.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80818-more-than-1-000-000-homes-in-foreclosure-housing-tracker?source=feed#comment-183561 183561 Wed, 11 Jun 2008 14:30:09 -0400