Barry Robbins

Theoretical Declines of a Bursting Oil Bubble

I think the idea that oil will follow the same path as these other bubbles is a huge mistake. The reason oil will be different... We are running out of the stuff! Planned future oil production projects will not be able to meet expected demand. And the production rates of the world's biggest oil fields are in decline. You might be better off comparing oil to the price of Manhattan real estate - there is only some much of the stuff to go around, and demand far outstrips supply.

Shorting the Homebuilders as Their Stocks Surge

I am currently shorting Lennar (LEN). There is no evidence of a turnaround in the homebuilders. There is a vast oversupply of homes, a massive reduction in available credit, and foreclosures are rising. There is no way that a turnaround is coming for the homebuilders. When I see a few of them declaring bankruptcy, then I may take a closer look at the survivors. Eventually, Toll Brothers may be a buy - but not until 2009 at the earliest.