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ParisJOM

ParisJOM
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  • TVIX: Don't Be Left Holding The Zero [View article]
    Time to revisit TVIX. Just took a chunky short position after TVIX gained 100%++ in a couple weeks.
    Oct 15, 2014. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholders In The iShares Silver Trust Are Sticking With It [View article]
    Nicholas,

    If this is the worst investment you have seen, have you not seen any companies go bankrupt and their shares go to zero ?

    At least commodities do not lose all of their value.

    When I look at a chart of a commodity, I am much more inclined to buy it after a good drop. ... call me crazy, but "buy low/sell high" is some wacky idea that I like.
    Sep 24, 2014. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholders In The iShares Silver Trust Are Sticking With It [View article]
    Nicholas,

    Not trying to be a smart ass at all, but the more pessimistic comments like that I see after a long drop, the more I am comfortable buying more down here.

    There is an economic bottom in silver somewhere. If you have a strong enough hand to buy more and more as it approaches that bottom, you will do fine.
    Sep 22, 2014. 04:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia's Gazprom, European Energy And U.S. Oil And Shale Gas: Shorting Russia? [View article]
    I am writting this post from my residence in Saint Petersburg Russia, and from where I am sitting, business looks to be doing very well in Russia.

    It is still a developing market, and the culture of business here is still often very naive and sloppy, but things do get done here. Construction is booming, restaurants and cafes are busy, pretty well everyone has a job, and the girls love shopping at Channel or Louis Vuitton... and if they can not afford the real thing, they buy very decent Chinese knock offs.

    On the down side, my observation is that people here (like in the U.S.) tend to use credit rather abundantly, and as a result the personal debt is rather high.

    I have many reasons to invest in Russian equities now. (I established a fresh long RSX & short RUSS position a few days ago, and will add to it if Russian equities drop much further).

    The whole sanctions thing seems rather insignificant so far, but it seems that the biggest consequence for Russia will be to increase local production (especially agro business) due to Russia's decision to ban many imports of foreign foods.
    Aug 7, 2014. 08:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Chance To Buy Corn At A Potential Bottom [View article]
    Dr. Duru,

    Corn seems to me to be the better bet.

    First, over 12 month, corn has been beaten up even worse than wheat.. just look at a relative price chart.

    Wheat production is not nearly as fragile as corn. Wheat is grown for more of the year, and its production is less prone to meterological misshaps of a relatively small region like the corn belt. Otherwise said, corn has a far more concentrated geographical location for the vast majority of its production.

    Corn is a better feed, and those feeding their livestock on soybeans, may turn to bargain corn soon.

    Wheat in is more pronounced contango than corn... not very good to be long a market which is in contango.
    Jun 8, 2014. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Rally Is Just Getting Started [View article]
    "Just Getting Started"

    Either that title is insincere, or you are in dire need of more timely information.
    Jun 8, 2014. 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn, wheat slide after USDA forecast; beans higher [View news story]
    Present corn market conditions are:

    - excellent growing conditions are near perfect

    - export demand is rather low

    - bumper corn crop is estimated by official sources and much of the media

    - the pork population has decreased significantly to to the hog diariah outbreak (USDA estimates 10% decline)

    - wheat has just seen largest decline in 20 years, but corn has declined even further relative wheat (in % terms) over a period of one year, over this same period soybeans have become very dear and appreciated significantly.


    All of this news is extremely bearish, and has driven July corn to 450 cents/bushel, representing an 18% decline over about 3 weeks.

    This appears to me to as if the market is pricing in all this favourable corn yield news as if there remains no more risk of any bullish new happening.

    My first assumption here is that the market has reacted strongly , and likely overeacted, to all this favourable news for corn yields and stocks.

    However, it seems to be reasonable to also assume that:

    - the porc population will weather the recent diariah outbreak and return to high levels (especially given the high hog prices, thus inciting production)

    - the El Nino weather developing may cause some dry spells this summer, causing moisutre concerns, and dimming yield prospects

    - livestock farmers will turn more to corn for feed, as the present soybean-corn spread is very wide, and making soybeans a much more costly feed choice.

    - chinese demand will pick up at these low prices.

    In sum, I think prety well if not all (oe more) bearish news has been priced in, and it will take but a small increase in demand or a small unfavourable weather event to boost corn prices very promptly.
    Jun 8, 2014. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Chance To Buy Corn At A Potential Bottom [View article]
    Dr. Duru.

    One year later, I think we just found a nw bottom to start buying.

    Present market conditions are:

    - excellent growing conditions are near perfect

    - export demand is rather low

    - bumper corn crop is estimated by official sources and much of the media

    - the pork population has decreased significantly to to the hog diariah outbreak (USDA estimates 10% decline)

    - wheat has just seen largest decline in 20 years, but corn has declined even further relative wheat (in % terms) over a period of one year, over this same period soybeans have become very dear and appreciated significantly.


    All of this news is extremely bearish, and has driven July corn to 450 cents/bushel, representing an 18% decline over about 3 weeks.

    This appears to me to as if the market is pricing in all this favourable corn yield news as if there remains no more risk of any bullish new happening.

    My first assumption here is that the market has reacted strongly , and likely overeacted, to all this favourable news for corn yields and stocks.

    However, it seems to be reasonable to also assume that:

    - the porc population will weather the recent diariah outbreak and return to high levels (especially given the high hog prices, thus inciting production)

    - the El Nino weather developing may cause some dry spells this summer, causing moisutre concerns, and dimming yield prospects

    - livestock farmers will turn more to corn for feed, as the present soybean-corn spread is very wide, and making soybeans a much more costly feed choice.

    - chinese demand will pick up at these low prices.

    In sum, I think prety well if not all (oe more) bearish news has been priced in, and it will take but a small increase in demand or a small unfavourable weather event to boost corn prices very promptly.
    Jun 7, 2014. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Opportunities To Grab Before The Great Market Crash Ahead [View article]
    " Don't go with your gut in this market. That's how you'll end up spilling blood."

    You have not provided any quantifiable evidence of anything here. You are only providing what appears to be your own but feeling.

    This entire article is very weak and little more than the same jibberish one can hear on CNBC day in, day out.
    May 25, 2014. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Opportunities To Grab Before The Great Market Crash Ahead [View article]
    "Treasury bills, or shorter-term government bonds and CDs are another good option during this time"

    Really ? With coupons that pay next to nothing, there remains little upside and all the downside one could possibly imagine. This is akin to piling into long OTM S&P 500 call at this historical high. ... speaking of "high" ....
    May 25, 2014. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Opportunities To Grab Before The Great Market Crash Ahead [View article]
    "I say, instead of becoming a trader, find a good trader and trading system!"

    .. So, in other words, you don't know what to do, so you want to delegate investment decisions to someone else. ... so why are you giving all the oppinions about where assets are going instead of straight out giving us the link to someone who knows what they are doing ?
    May 25, 2014. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Opportunities To Grab Before The Great Market Crash Ahead [View article]
    "I have traveled the world for over 30 years and know what currencies should be valued at longer term."

    You lost me there Harry. Is your assertion there something similar to "I eat plenty of Doritos, so I know where the price of corn futures are going" ?
    May 25, 2014. 03:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Streets, It's Time To Buy Russia [View article]
    How does that tie in with investing Russian equities ? Is there some correlation between Russian markets and your rants about Vietnam I am missing ?
    May 25, 2014. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Streets, It's Time To Buy Russia [View article]
    Russian equities still looking strong despite the underlying political mayhem and now the additional very top heavy equities in developed countries.

    Lucky I don't have any Urkranian friends in Minnesota, that would be a real moral dilemma and really screw up my investment opportunities.

    Looks like RSX want to pop its head above resistance at 24.40/50 zone. From a technical perspective, what is next ? ... promptly to 26/27 zone ?
    May 16, 2014. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Streets, It's Time To Buy Russia [View article]
    It really depends on your strategy and time frame of investment I suppose, but being short the RUSS leg is justifiable if you do not think that the MICEX is going to crash/stagnate/hear North.

    Effectively, a short position on this leveraged ETF is somewhat like holding a short put, insofar as it decays over time.

    As afar as RSX is concerned, the valuations inside this ETF are still very attractive, but may be technically high on the short term.

    An alternative strategy to my long (adjusted) RSX leg + a "permanent" short RUSS leg might be to maintain/initiate RSX at present levels, and gradually build the position on significant declines.

    Another very decent looking proposition would be to sell naked puts on RSX slightly OTM (ie get paid to place a limit order lower).
    May 16, 2014. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
190 Comments
257 Likes