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    • Mon Dec 10th 09:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova
      Mark,
      One more iteration on this subject:
      First Solar Panel size 2 by 4 feet: 0.6096 x 1.2192 = 0.7432 square meter.
      Thickness 3 microns or 3 x 10 E-6 meters.
      Volume used : 0.7432 x 3 x 10 E-6 = 2.2296 x 10 E-6 cubic meters or 2,2296 cc (cubic centimeter)
      CdTe weight 5.85 g per cc
      Weight of compound per panel 2.2296 x 5.85 =13.04 grams
      Te is 53 % of compound so Tellurium weight per panel is 13.04 x 0.53 = 6.91 grams.
      If panel generate 70 Watt, Tellurium used per Watt is 6.91 / 70 = 0.09876 grams.
      To reach the polysilicon equivalence of 26 cent in cost, the Tellurium price would then need to reach $2835 per kilograms.
      I think that Tellurium can and will reach that price rapidly especially when a second and third CdTe panel manufacturer will start production.
      I have ignored in this calculation, the cost of cadmium and the cost of preparing the CdTe compound from the separate elements.
      If any Analyst is reading this, can anyone of them ask, during the next First Solar public presentation, the question of the cost of the CdTe compound per Watt or the cost of the Tellurium Per Watt at this stage. Polysilicon cells manufacturers are discussing openly this matter, I think First Solar should do the same.
      I think that the price of tellurium is more critical that its availability.
      I read that the total resource of Tellurium on earth is evaluated at 800,000 tons but it is still in the ground !
      As it is a by-product, its extraction rate is dependent on the other metals (mainly copper) extraction. Therefore, price will definitely go up.
      View article »
    • Sun Dec 9th 17:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova
      These are all very good arguments, congratulations to all participants.
      On the consumption of raw material, comparing silicon and tellurium, I was wondering how you come up with 8 grams of tellurium per 60 Watt panel.
      If we take a 300 microns wafer technology, the use of silicon is around 10 g / Watt.
      Suntech is in the range of 200 microns and is reporting 7 grams / Watt.
      First solar CFO is saying that there usage of material is reduced because they use only a 3 micron layer of material. I would be tempted to conclude that they use 100 times less material, leading to 0.1 grams / Watt or 6 grams / panel.
      Now, we still need to take into account the fact that tellurium is only 1 part of the CdTe compound. It is actually 6 grams of compound, not 6 grams of tellurium.
      I am not sure of this but I believe the CdTe compound is made of a weight proportion of 47 % of Tellurium and 53 % of Cadmium. Can anybody verify this?
      This would mean that the use of Tellurium per panel is 0.47 x 6 grams = 2.82 grams or 0.047 grams / Watt
      We can continue with pricing comparison. Spot market of polysilicon goes up to $300 / kilograms but Suntech CEO says that they now have new long-term contract at $40 / kilograms. At 7 grams / Watt, we then have 28 cents of silicon per Watt.
      If First solar is using 0.047 grams / Watt (I.E. 2.8 grams per panel), to reach cost equivalence with the silicon (28 cents), they would need to pay the tellurium $5,957 per kilograms.
      It is obvious that while polysilicon trend is to go lower in price, Tellurium is taking the opposite direction. Investing in tellurium might be a good idea but it seems a long way before getting to 6,000 $.
      View article »
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