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19 Comments
Is the U.S. Banking System Safe? [view article]
Excellent article. While I know all home values are or will be impacted by credit crunch, escalating foreclosures and the increase in interest rates that will surely occur, is there a way to estimate the potential impact in various areas. Many areas experienced explosive price increases while other areas appreciated more modestly, yet most of the charts I see re. the change in home values are on a national level. I live in the Raleigh NC area, and would like to see trending data / charts that are more regional, especially re. any estimated percent decline. Is there a place to find such information. Thanks. Aug 03 04:11 PMCalling a Housing Bottom [view article]
Would be interested to hear your perspective on how the mortgage refinancing legislation will impact a potential bottom to the housing market. It seems it does nothing to truly create a bottom, but only slows the decline in home prices, ensuring those purchasing today will watch their home value decline over time. Am curious what happens to those that find themselves upside down re. home value to mortgage in the future. Is there a safety net for these folks say 5 - 10 years out? Jun 05 03:42 PMSenator Dodd's Housing Solution - Cramer's Mad Money (5/21/08) [view article]
Housing prices will eventually return to the market adjusted price. This bill may temporarily prop up home values, but in the end the values will still fall. All those looking to purchase will also become victims of the Senators political maneuvering as they watch their hefty down payment slowly slip always. This is a temporary solution that will end up costing billions and still hurting millions, while bailing out investment banks, home builders and speculators further. May 23 12:18 AMUnder The Radar News - Tuesday [view article]
Re. "Plastic stocks meltdown?", not sure I'd consider plastic stocks a bad bet. I mean, we've bailed out investment banks that made bad decisions, shifted billions of bad debt to the fed, given tax breaks to builder that drove up housing prices, are about to use government backed companies to bail home owners that made bad decisions, all on the backs of the taxpayer and to the detriment of our retirement plans by erosion of the dollar. Surely, with some creative thinking, the government can figure out a way to tranfer this bad debt to the taxpayer as well, giving card holders the ability to charge up more debt using the same "it's good for the economy" philosophy. At these prices, looks like a buy opportunity. May 20 08:05 PMLet's Not Write The Fed a Blank Check [view article]
Very scary! May 12 05:52 AMDangerous Optimism in Homebuilders [view article]
People losing their homes is never a good thing, regardless of whether it's due to job loss or to loans that should not have been issued in the first place. That said, however, home prices have skyrocketed over the last 8 - 10 yrs, while real wages have been flat. Home prices must be brought more in line with real wages. I keep hearing politicians talk about transferring the wealth of oil companies back to the public (which really means back to government), yet we're bailing out investment backs and providing tax breaks to builders, the entities responsible for the run up. Funny thing is, if the investment banks hadn't been so greedy to begin with, homes would be more affordable, and higher food and gas prices (more in line with the rest of the world) wouldn't really be a problem. So lets bail out the investment banks and builders, and put the burden for their greed on the backs of the public, and scream how unfair it is that oil companies are reaping profits due to the governments devaluing of the US dollar to bail them out. How about letting the free market economy work. May 03 12:05 PMFast and Easy Fannie [view article]
So there's plenty of blame to go around (borrowers, lenders, mortgage brokers, bankers, builders, etc.) in varying degrees depending on the circumstances. Meanwhile, the holders of these toxic mortgages are slowly transferring them off their balance sheets and onto the balance sheets of government backed entitites, in one way or another. So those of us that thought we were being responsible are the very same who will foot the bill by lower home equity, lower real value in your retirement accounts and ultimately higher taxes. While the investment banks, builders, etc. that made plenty of profits on the upside are not accountable on the downside. Their stock value may declide temporarily, but as they transfer these bad debts to government back entities (you and I), their value will surely recover. There you have it. Our government at work. And by the way, you home buyers looking for a good deal, be ready to watch that down payment your going to be required to pay evaporate as the value of that home continues to fall, thanks to your government letting the air out slowly, and essentially transferring your dollars back to the investment banks. May 03 11:47 AMHow To Solve the Housing Crisis Tomorrow [view article]
How about letting the free market take its course, and punish those that took the risk. And instead of bailing out the wrong- doers, provide low interest loans for affordable housing to qualified buyers with excellent credit, verified income, significant down payments and the intellegence not to get over-extended in the first place. Essentially purchasing performing loans, instead of the junk the fed now carries on it's balance sheet (ever wonder why the large financial institutions are looking healthier). Just a thought. Apr 17 03:29 PM10 Things Not To Worry About [view article]
I'm worried. Give me the kool-aid. Apr 17 03:01 PMThe Housing Crisis: Personal Responsibility and Wishful Thinking [view article]
While I agree with everything in the article, and appreciate the author's clear and complete analysis, it’s frustrating that the same entities responsible for the crisis (lenders, mortgage brokers, builders and speculators) are the exact entities the government is supporting at the tax payers expense. There is no risk without consequence, and when our government removes the consequence by providing tax breaks, discount lending (that may never get repaid) or equity handouts, there's nothing preventing a repeat of the crisis. In a true free market economy, the markets need to correct, and the chips should fall where they may. No discount lending, no home builder tax breaks, no tax payer backed discount mortgages and equity. Otherwise, the consequence is to those that did not participate. And those that took the risk will be looking for the next opportunity. Apr 16 11:00 PMThe Folly in Calling a Housing Market Bottom [view article]
In their effort to prop up home prices and slow the mortgage meltdown, the Government has ensure the price decline will continue for quite some time. With rising inventories, why in the world would anyone decide to buy a home in this climate, only to have that now required big down payment evaporate as the value of their home declines. I agree with this article. Invested in under-valued stocks. Then, sit back and what the fireworks. Apr 11 08:17 AMThe Two Housing Crises [view article]
Well said TraderMark. Not only has our government ensured normal people will still not be able to buy by prop'ing up prices, they are also ensuring those that are albe to buy will be purchasing a declining asset for quite some time. And that down payment your going to be required to put down will be wasted money. How many buyers will be excited to jump back in that market. Apr 10 10:27 PMHomebuilders Hands in Congress' Pocket? [view article]
The government has now put itself in a position to have to prop up home prices due to the risky assets now on its books. It will undoubtedly let the air out slowly. While this has a positive temporary effect for the economy, it also means that home buyers will not get affordable (and realistic) home prices anytime soon. And in fact will be purchasing a declining asset. Buyer beware if you were considering your new purchase an investment. And now it appears the price gougers (Home builders) will bet even more benefit. So much for a free market economy. Apr 03 03:29 PMExplaining the Bear Stearns Rescue [view article]
On second thought, I'd suspect JP Morgan will make a tremendous amount of money now that those CDOs will be revalued based on taxpayers dollars. Apr 03 03:24 PMExplaining the Bear Stearns Rescue [view article]
The government has now put itself in a position to have to prop up home prices due to the risky assets now on it's books. It will undoubtedly let the air out slowly. While this has a positive side for the economy, it also means that home buyers will not get affordable home prices anytime soon and in fact will be purchasing a declining asset. Buyer beware if you were considering your new purchase an investment. Also, was laughable to hear Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan say that bankers will be taking a loss if mortgages are written down. That loss is negligible to the loss from the declining value of CDO's. They made a lot of money going up, and are now getting bailed out as they sell off assets prop'd up by the action Congress is surely to take. Apr 03 03:12 PM