pochovilla

Counting Chickens: How Much Is the Market Already Pricing In a Fed Funds Rate Cut?

and the market will rally for 1hr, 6 hrs or 1 day before giving back any gains?

With Great Values Now In the Markets, the Glass Is Half Full

The glass may be half full but it keeps getting smaller.

Bernanke and Paulson: Butting Heads?

Paulson knows he has a lifeboat in January. Bernanke thinks he will still be on the ship.

Reading the S&P 500's Crashing Waves

Wave goodbye to your money

TARP: Alternative Acronyms Edition

IN THE BEGINNING WAS THE PLAN
AND THEN CAME THE ASSUMPTIONS
AND THE ASSUMPTIONS WERE WITHOUT FORM
AND THE PLAN WAS COMPLETELY WITHOUT SUBSTANCE
AND THE DARKNESS WAS UPON THE FACE OF THE WORKERS
AND THEY SPOKE AMONGST THEMSELVES, SAYING
“IT IS A CROCK OF SHIT, AND IT STINKETH”,
AND THE WORKERS WENT UNTO THEIR SUPERVISORS AND SAYETH
“IT IS A PAIL OF DUNG AND NONE MAY ABIDE THE ODOR THEREOF”
AND THE SUPERVISORS WENT UNTO THE MANAGERS AND SAYETH UNTO THEM,
“IT IS A CONTAINER OF EXCREMENT AND IT IS VERY STRONG,
SUCH THAT NONE MAY ABIDE BY IT.
AND THE MANAGERS WENT UNTO THEIR DIRECTORS AND SAYETH
“IT IS A VESSEL OF FERTILIZER, AND NONE MAY ABIDE ITS STRENGTH”
AND THE DIRECTORS SPOKE AMONGST THEMSELVES, SAYING TO ONE TO ANOTHER,
“IT CONTAINS THAT WHICH AIDS PLANT GROWTH, AND IT IS VERY STRONG”.
AND THE DIRECTORS WENT UNTO THE VICE PRESIDENTS AND SAYETH UNTO THEM,
“IT PROMOTES GROWTH AND IS VERY POWERFUL”.
AND THE VICE PRESIDENTS, WENT UNTO THE PRESIDENT AND SAYETH UNTO HIM,
“THIS NEW PLAN WILL ACTIVELY PROMOTE THE GROWTH AND EFFICIENCY OF THIS COMPANY, AND THESE AREAS IN PARTICULAR”,
AND THE PRESIDENT LOOKED UPON THE PLAN,
AND SAW IT WAS GOOD, AND THE PLAN BECAME POLICY.
“THIS IS HOW SHIT HAPPENS”!

Stimulus Tracker: Results Are Scary

The next time you hear "economic headwinds", "rebalancing" or "protecting the taxpayer" make preparations in a tornado shelter and hope that it's not a flood that will kill you.

Are We On the Verge of a Rally?

You're describing a LUV rally. Like the lowly fraternity brother who was blind drink, unshaven and sweaty and passes out in a bed to find he wakes up with with an ugly fat girl the next morning. Did they make love or will this turn out to be a bad dream with consequences?
Veni summarized it quite well.

GDI vs. GDP - Which One's a Better Recession Indicator?

The amount of cash in your wallet at the end of the month.

There's No Happy Ending to This Bailout

I borrowed $100 from my best friend with a promise to pay it back when I deposited my next paycheck. When I went to return it, he wasn't there so I gave the $100 to his wife. She called her girlfriends and spent the $100 at lunch and while they were out she charged $200 on her credit card.
Tears?

Bailout Should Be A Windfall For Taxpayers - Barron's

Wind = Hot air blowing
Fall = Descend from a higher position

I agree with the author who may not be a proxy from the Barron's I used to know. The taxpayers will be brought to their knees, if not placed flat on their back, from all of the hot air coming out of Washington.

The RTC lost $124B based on a white paper recently published by FDIC analysts. The fact that the loss was not $350B is not comforting. In the RTC case the government owned the underlying assets. Simple math. A+B=C

Do the math. This is equivalent to asking someone incapable of balancing a checkbook to understand "partial differential equations". Check wikipedia. There are too many variables in this calculation period. More disconcerting is the assumptions of this complex mathematical formula are being provided by legislators (Politicians). It is no wonder Ben Bernanke does not want to play in this game. He has his hands full already and is prone to fumble if he has to carry the ball on every play.

It's not even "fuzzy" math or "Bushy" math. It's "wiki-wiki" math.

Until housing affordability comes in line with the real number for most Americans, the underlying mortgage cesspools will continue to stink.

McCain's Economics

Felix; Stay out of politics. The McCain supporters declared victory. The Obama supporters declared victory.
John McCain does not need to be an expert on the economy; He has Phil Graham, Larry Kudlow and Mark Perry plus over 500 experts in the House and Senate.

Housing Excess Looks Good, but Not That Good

When the trend reverses it overshoots and looks like a 200,000 - 250,000 inventory of unsold new homes may signal a reversal. I would expect that builders will be challenged for several years to build more affordable housing due to high energy prices, cost of credit and down payment issues. This will continue to pressure earnings.
The consumer needs to have control of debt to income, not just principal, interest, taxes and insurance. Car loans, credit cards and utility costs are "virtual (real) debt" that needs to be a factor in the housing affordability calculation. Maybe the range of 2.5-3 X income with 20% down should be the new calculus for buyers as few jobs are providing annual income increases over inflation.

On Board the 'U.S.S. Titanic'

SUPERB.
The Titanic analogy was near perfect.
The situations that you describe are based on Common Sense and Truth. Combined with Integrity, these are three characteristics lacking in most Politicians and the self interest crowd.
America is about to go a massive expensive diet.

SEC Triggers Prison Construction Boom

There is room at a tropical resort in East Cuba.

What's Wrong with the Trickle-Down Bailout?

It depends on the magnitude of the trickle (or drip). Normally I would say give the government a dollar and get 30 cents back. In this case "fella, can you spare a dime" might be optimistic.