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    • Fri Mar 21st 12:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Wait for the Official End of the Recession
      Must be the title was truncated, eh?

      Don't Wait for the Official End of the Recession...To See The Value of Your Investments Decrease

      Just follow a guru blindly and lose more money
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    • Fri Mar 21st 09:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing: When Magazine Covers Indicate a Clash
      Unbelievable; Investment advise?
      The magazine cover indicator
      The sunshine effect on wall street
      The Super Bowl indicator
      The lick your finger and stick it in the wind indicator?
      What's next?
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 21st 09:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Wait for the Official End of the Recession
      Guru's sure do have fun with numbers to prove their point:

      S&P 500
      Mar 00 1498
      Mar 01 1160 Recession begins
      Nov 01 1139 Recession ends
      Nov 02 936 Oooops. The Recession was over one year ago.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 21st 08:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financial Entertainment TV Buries Itself with Disinformation
      Financial entertainment is alive and well. There are so many lambs to lead around. What they don't say is in the disclaimer that you don't see (the information provided is valid for 15 seconds, but check out out book store or newsletter service and continue to hit our web site because we generate revenue for all of the Viagra hits). And Tony is a mind reader. Tony what does your crystal ball say today? The market is closed?
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 18th 13:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Some Perspective on Subprime Mortgages
      Mark: "Obviously then, 98.65% of homes were NOT in the foreclosure process in QIV 2007." It's March 2008. There may be a small problem with leverage and mark to market accounting among a few other things. Apparently Bear Stearns looked at this chart last week. Today their shareholders are looking at the stock price.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 18th 12:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Now Presenting: Deflation!
      I m en idyut. I liv in a trayler in Rkensaw. I hav no credot ownlee sum muny inacan. Wut is muny supli? Ifin I gitz ona plain to Lundun wut can I bye wen I gitz ther? We hav sum deflation here in Rkensaw. The dog is thinnen out cuz ther iz no fuud.

      Please do not argue with Mish. He makes a great case for deflation. However anything resembling an inflation argument is only anecdotal evidence and must be discarded without prejudice. There is a great gap between an Economist and the common man who would erroneously believe:
      Inflation is the decline in purchasing power of the currency held. This is particularly true at the end of the month when his $25.00 buys less beer. The deflationary condition of the trailer next door at half price does not enter into Joe Sixpacks quantitative analysis.

      Spel chek don’t work so gud
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 12:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Dozen Notes on Our Manic-Depressive Credit Markets II
      Congratulations David. You're a journalist that actually writes something worth reading. Most other "journalists"... are elementary journalists as in "show and tell" and "cut and paste" (first-third grade).
      Our Country has lost its moral compass and work ethic as well as it's manufacturing base. We're being entertained into bankruptcy. Our primary education has failed in math, science, history and physical education. CEO's run companies as Kings and Queens of the worst type. Our Government is so broken and inefficient that it is little more than a bureaucratic job creator that produces little more than waste paper to be shipped and recycled in China. There are conflicts of interest at every turn. The TV media, Radio and written newspaper media are afraid to criticize business. Headlines are head fakes because most people can't read or listen past a sound bite. The devil is always in the detail.
      So, who hears the voice of the skeptic, the whistle blower, the constructive critic until it is too late?
      And in the end, who suffers from "Greedalism"...
      Our younger generation is beginning to see this. There will be new leaders emerging to cast out the bad apples and allow this country to regain it's proud heritage. It may take two generations to accomplish this.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 15th 17:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bearish Bloggers Too Optimistic!
      Barry: You go to confession and everyone has an opinion. Just what is oversold? Somewhere I read in Ben Graham's book "conventional wisdom" in a bear market..........
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 11th 20:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mortgage Delinquencies on the Rise; Indicators of Future Foreclosures
      "The real issues are whether or not an individual can afford their monthly payment" That's where the nail meets the head. By any common sense meaning of housing affordability too many of these loans were virtually upside down at the start. Is there any data that shows how much of the closing cost above the appraised value (inflated or not) was rolled into the loan. Add moving expenses and new home start up expenses etc plus increased utility expenses and the mortgagee was likely stretched from the get go. Then add in the nasty surprise between year one to year two those incremental tax and insurance expenses...and we can anticipate the rest of the story that does not show up in the charts.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 11th 19:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fantasy-Based Economics
      As my Sales Director used to say regarding meeting sales objectives and not goals "HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY"
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 9th 22:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why We're Still in the Early Innings of the Bursting of the Housing and Credit Bubbles - And Implications for MBIA and Ambac
      Let's try this again for the DINK's.
      A $500K home purchase price with 10% down on a 30 yr 6.5% fixed rate with debt to income at 45% requires $69,500 at closing financing a balance of $450K with a monthly income of $11,389 or $137,000 annually. The P3 chart shows 1/1/06- 6/1/07 $40 K annual income and pushing debt to income to 55% + provided borrowing power for a $340K + home. Without all of the detail in the P3 calculation that says $60K annual income could push the borrowing power to $500K.
      Does anyone else see the disconnect? Where would a $60K earner get $69,500 for closing? and how long could the charade last when pretax income needs to be over $137K. Let's just forget about the incremental escalating cost of taxes, insurance and utilities that are paid with after tax dollars and become additional burdens within 2-3 years after move-in.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 9th 12:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why We're Still in the Early Innings of the Bursting of the Housing and Credit Bubbles - And Implications for MBIA and Ambac
      A fabulous piece of work by a dedicated team. The work here is totally out of the reach of most analyst organizations. I know the moral of the story is to support short positions. But there chart on page 3 presents an even more revealing story of housing affordability. Using some common sense standards back pre-'97 and calculating Housing affordability by today's stricter standards indicates that $42K pre tax income with $15K down (15%) monthly debt between $400-$800 (car loan that never ends) including closing costs taxes and insurance, a fixed 30 year rate of 6.5-8% and bingo you can afford between $120-171K for a new home, not even the $217K home in the chart. So who will buy those $325K houses? Someone that has $29K for closing and $75.9 K annual income with a 6.5% 30 yr mortgage. THIS IS VERY UGLY BUT REAL
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 8th 12:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      8 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Now
      When it's your money to invest do as you wish. Keep in mind technology is great when people love it. Not so great when "disappointments&... happen. It takes a long time to build on a marriage but divorces are ugly and quick. With the direction of the economy there are fewer suits with money for "cool" technology. Don't count on the Chinese to use non-counterfit IPhones. How many mp3's are you going to listen to a 40G ipod? How many videos before you go blind? Let's just add a 300 watt amplifier and home theater speakers. The stock should go to 500.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 8th 12:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Not Buying Forward P/E Estimates
      OK guys try this out for size. Redo your chart to look at cash flow from operations and cash flow from investing. Then try to figure out how many snakes are in the grass for cash flow from investing in AAA securities. Make it easier for the analysis by dissecting only the last three years. "Conventional wisdom" for this mess will occur 30 years from now.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 7th 09:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Does the Yield Curve Point the Way for Stocks?
      “Picture du Jour” contributions are just that. One piece of a puzzle. Guessing is the operative word for deciding the whole picture. Try connecting the dots with one dot even if the one dot is a big dot. Let's have a few more dots to decide if the direction is correct.
      View article »
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