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    • Fri May 2nd 10:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Circuit City: Simply Appalling
      This horse needs to be shot before the vultures pick it clean. At least a couple of pounds of dog food can be recovered.
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    • Fri May 2nd 10:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Liquidity Tsunami
      I would say this would make an excellent example of the trickle down theory. If liquidity was measured as 1000 gallons of water which was to be distributed by Investment Banks to the drought victims how many gallons would reach those in need? If you consider fees, reserve for future droughts, transaction costs and Investment Bank consumption and maybe a little bit of hoarding and flow rate calculations it might mean we need a better understanding of the metric system which measures volume in ml (milliliters).
      Good news for Investment Banks is not necessarily good news for consumers.
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    • Thu May 1st 17:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financial Markets: An Apology
      It's fun to smile. We need another truckload of snake oil. Sales are booming.
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    • Thu May 1st 06:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      12 Observations on Residential Housing
      Dave: The next time someone mentions which inning are we in just say it's the World Series and could go to 7 games.
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    • Thu May 1st 06:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What about the Pocket Recessions?
      Pocket recession? More than you think. Add a few cities and the list grows. After paying for gas, food, energy doctor/dentist visit the consumer (at least a very large number) looks in the pocket and is reminded about a personal pocket recession that economists consider anecdotal. The feel good GDP number (.6%) has a very large portion of retail gasoline price increases reflected in the raw number. While this may make pundits declare "what recession ?", this opinion is not evenly distributed among "we the people".
      I watched Hillary in Indiana do a photo op (video) at a filling station. Apparently this is the first time in several years that she paid for gas. If the truck was diesel powered the shock value would have been better. It's a good thing she doesn't have to deal with home heating fuel at her residences.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 21:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GDP Still Growing (Barely)
      Oil price increase impact on GDP

      Rough calculation suggests
      4Q GDP growth of .6% includes .38% rise on price of oil assume $10/barrel increase
      1Q GDP growth of .6% includes .58% rise in price of oil assume $15/barrel increase

      This was only a rough calculation. I’m sure it would take 10 Fed Reserve Economists working five months just to get to a draft to dispute my calculation. But I am concerned that the answer is “directionally correct” and the published .6% rise in GDP in Q1 is not as robust as it first appears.

      Stats from EIA: www.eia.doe.gov/neic/q...
      Spot oil prices: www.wtrg.com/daily/oil...
      What is GDP? Not a simple answer:
      www.bea.gov/national/p...
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    • Wed Apr 30th 19:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Keep On Watching for Signs of a Market Bottom
      If Meritage Homes is raising prices it's a sign of a lobotomy forming.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 08:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      21st Century Central Banking
      The moral of this story is be like Warren Buffet: get far away from these folks and go fishing.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 08:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      No Uptick Rule: A Convenient Scapegoat?
      From what I read the naked shorting is potentially a bigger problem than the uptick rule. Will we ever find out with the SEC?
      Here's a bit of worthless advice: Don't ever mention Cramer or Kudlow in an article again. I personally enjoy what you write and the opinions you express on the "clown" shows. You get lots of attaboys. But as a wise old sage said to me "one ashit wipes out 1400 attaboys."
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 30th 08:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Keep On Watching for Signs of a Market Bottom
      Every day people see a bottom on Wall Street. Especially when they stick their head in the ass end of the bronze bull. There is photographic evidence. No charts required.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 29th 13:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are US Inflationary Concerns Inflated?
      Bad MATH skills lead to incorrect conclusions. The numbers on the verticle axis are percent of change. Not the absolute change. The deduction is the inflation RATE may be moderating : changing at a slower rate. But the absolute price of gas at $3.50/gal now vs $2.60/gal one year age is the problem. YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
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    • Tue Apr 29th 07:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are Homebuilders a Buy?
      Here's my prediction. You're the messenger. There will be many comments to kill the messenger. The bulls don't want to recognize facts and the bears want any evidence that points to bankruptcy. This is like a court case with a good prosecuting attorney and a good defense attorney arguing before a jury that is biased towards the defense (Buy the Homebuilders). Until more evidence is presented the conclusion remains.....
      The real issue, similar to the Investment banks, is where are the earnings going to be generated. The other issue is the quality of earnings combined with creative accounting that makes finding the real evidence a challenge. And the game goes on...court will be in session and if the defendant is found guilty the court will postpone the punishment phase (could be probation without verdict) until some future date. Of course the defendant can be declared not guilty and the court of public opinion will declare the evidence as tainted. God Bless America.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 28th 07:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      25 Stocks Benjamin Graham Would Like
      Your headline grabbed my attention. You win. But I think these are stocks Ben Graham would screen.. or as you suggest ...should be screened.
      First Marblehead FMD jumps off the page just by the numbers and a stock that I knew from the past Starrett SCX looks like something of interest (it's boring but faithful). I believe many "investors" would jump on an article like this. But I am also confident that Ben Graham would ask, for example, is FMD worth $3.62 today and what are the future prospects when the bargain hunting crowd looks at the 52 week high and says why not $42.50 again (next week)

      Thanks for the screening opportunity. I'll take monopoly money and buy 100 shares each this morning and then take the equivalent amount and try my efforts to buy a selection from this list using a Ben Graham approach and make a comparison one year from now.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 28th 07:01 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bill Miller: Credit Panic Ended With Bear Stearns

      I think Bill Miller is smiling because he has made a very decent living as a Chief Financial Officer. If you follow his link for Legg Mason’s First Quarter 2008 results, my observation is there is no advantage in investing in these funds compared to the S&P 500 when considering expenses. He points out in the newsletter that in the last 26 years the Legg Mason funds have outperformed in 20 years and underperformed in 6 years.

      If you look at the current portfolio:

      Stock April 25 price 1 year range
      AMZN 80 60-102
      AES 18 16-24
      JPM 48 36-53
      AET 44 39-60
      UNH 34 33-59
      YHOO 27 19-34
      EBAY 31 25-41
      GE 33 32-42
      SHLD 100 85-194
      FRE 28 17-68

      The Bill Miller critics will point to his picks compared to the high number and the Bill Miller followers will make comparisons to the low number in the 1 year range. No one’s mind will change and Bill will keep smiling, especially if some people think he is in the same class as Warren Buffet.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 27th 16:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Housing Finance Actually Works
      FACT OR FICTION?

      To get a better Understanding of what Tom Brown is “pitching” here put all three of these articles in your memory bank and than make a more informed conclusion:

      Subprime Mortgage Losses: Not Destined to Pitch World into Abyss, After All
      Thomas Brown April 22, 2208

      www.bankstocks.com/art...


      S&P Subprime analysis 2000-2006: Mar 2007 Article
      Given these observations, combined with our expectation that the U.S. economy will not experience a recession in the next two years, we believe 7.75% should be at the high end of our subprime loss assumption for the 2006 vintage. Our loss expectation also considers the relatively weak housing market. We also assume stagnant home price appreciation for 2007 and that home prices will return to a more traditional growth rate of 3%-4% after 2007.
      If losses for the 2006 subprime vintage reach 7.75%, this vintage will become the worst-performing vintage in recent history, realizing 50% more losses than any other. To gain some perspective about the impact of an economic slowdown on the 2006 vintage, we can look at Detroit's recent economic slide. Over the past five years, Detroit's unemployment rate has risen above 8% and house price appreciation has hovered in the 2%-4% range. In this environment, subprime loans have experienced cumulative losses of approximately 6% (source: Jan. 9, 2007, CSFB Market Tabs). Comparatively, the high end of our 2006 subprime loss expectations for all of the U.S. is higher than the worst-performing microeconomy over the past five years.

      www2.standardandpoors....


      Subprime Time Bomb Feb 2007 Article

      “Despite the headwinds, lenders like Countrywide, which only has 10% of its business in subprime production, could weather the housing slump better than nearly pure subprime companies, like New Century and Novastar”.

      www.businessweek.com/b...

      THE BIG QUESTION: FACT OR FICTION?
      View article »
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