pochovilla

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    • Fri Apr 25th 07:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The "No Amount of Bad News Can Bring This Market Down" Trades
      I think you should be buying GM since they have a green 5800# YUKON for only $60,000. Also missing from your list is ABK and MBI as these must be screaming buys (I think most of the screaming is from folks who bought about one year ago)
      Do you know of any good bicycle stocks? (gas above $4.00/gal)
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    • Thu Apr 24th 16:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Condos With Embedded Puts
      If this happens it will show "The Greater Fool Theory" has been proven with scientific precision. I will guess the contract starts with
      "This ain't no lie, but..."
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    • Thu Apr 24th 16:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bill Miller: Credit Panic Ended With Bear Stearns
      Here's what I think we should do. Follow Bill's advice that CFC is worth $40, get Bernanke to buy all the stock, re-open Bear Stearns, let them leverage the stock at 30:1 sell everything to China and the Middle East (get our money back) and buy all of our government agencies a decent IT system, rebuild New Orleans and take care of student loans at 0 interest and buy up a pacel of foreclosed houses. Then we can give Bill a Congressional medal and make him a Secretary in the next administration. Problem solved.....
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    • Thu Apr 24th 08:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Does the President Know, and When Did He Know It: "We're not in a recession..."
      The President knows that in a few months that someone else will have to deal with all of the problems that were not addressed by his administration. How could he possibly have any understanding of anything that does not meet his political ideology? The track record of the Republican Administration speaks for itself. All politics all of the time, too many cases of bad advice and a refusal (denial) to allow facts to influence decisions. I agree with JoeChristmas, this has nothing to do with graphs, charts, data or anything else if it doesn't meet the preconceived position of the President or his political advisers. I offer FEMA, OSHA, FDA, FCC etc as examples of Sen Dorgan's comment "staggering gross incompetence" that all of Congress share.
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    • Tue Apr 22nd 11:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Homebuilder Performance and Revenue Matrix
      Gravity still exists. It's the hot air in the paper paper balloons that's has limited supply in spite of Congressional efforts. I think the high rise condo's in Miami would make wonderful housing for the homeless if only the FED can arrange the financing and we just ignore the maintenance costs for awhile. Keep this stuff off the books and just use emergency appropriations bills. 1000 peso notes would be used as collateral.
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    • Mon Apr 21st 14:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Treasury, Fed and Bankers Are Setting the Bull Traps
      I'm not sure where I heard this, but "the solutions coming out of Washington are likely to be worse than the problems". Combine that with the talking heads wanting a strong dollar policy and higher interest rates to curb inflation and a new mess will occur with global companies seeing reduced profitability and banks increasing their rates combined with increasing credit standards... I'm not sure there is a way out of the woods without pain.
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    • Sat Apr 19th 12:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's Time to Focus on the Value of the Dollar
      If Keynes was in his prime today he would have an entirely different theory based on the "oil standard" and debt burden of the United States. Then he would look at ourloss of manufacturing capacity and come to the realization we are a paper shuffling economy. If he paid any attention to the lack of integrity by our government and our banking system he would move to Afghanistan and become a heroin addict. Undoubtedly he would write music and become a rock star.
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    • Thu Apr 17th 15:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How To Solve the Housing Crisis Tomorrow
      Seems to me Philip Davis is ready to be the next Secretary of Treasury so he can give advice to Ben Bernanke.
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    • Thu Apr 17th 15:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Doug Kass on Housing Predictions: An Update
      At a .9 correlation it's nice to be directionally correct. The rest is a battle of chart titans arguing methodology. These arguments can last for years as the barn burns down and the horse has been made into hamburger.
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    • Thu Apr 17th 08:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      IBM: Is It Really a Tech Tell?
      Is any company a proxy for tech, banking, housing or the economy? The talking heads will proclaim yes and goldilocks marches on. We live in a sound bite headline grabbing "entertainment&qu... world. The lambs will follow. In reality each stock must be evaluated on it's own merits. Would I buy AMD because Intel looks attractive vs "revised expectations"? Would I buy ALU, NT because IBM had decent performance? Would I believe MER is a buy because the market has discounted all or most of the sub-prime issues? Some skepticism is good, cynicism is not. You're making good points. Come back to this in one month, two months, one year.
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    • Thu Apr 17th 08:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mortgage Resets: Subprime May Be Ending, Option ARMs Have Just Begun
      Herb: I'm puzzled as to why you even go on the Kudlow Klown show. I watched the "show" and looked at the chart on resets. At first glance there is some truth to the interest argument making monthly payments more attractive. But there are people who couldn't afford the loan in the first place. It seems to me that Kudlow has an answer and finds some chart to prove his point and as far as he is concerned the discussion is over and "goldilocks" marches on. But I would believe the issue is much more complex than a simple reset chart. Does anyone have a handle on real data? I have seen data from 1/1/06 to 6/1/07 (Amherst Securities Group, LP re: purchasing power) that suggests $40K pretax incomes 55% debt/income was providing borrowing power in excess of $340K. It seems to me anything beyond 3.5x $40K = $140K generates trouble even at fixed rates particularly with inflation in real estate taxes, insurance, power and most consumer non-discretionary purchases.
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    • Wed Apr 16th 15:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Housing Crisis: Personal Responsibility and Wishful Thinking
      Let's see: Greenspan is the driver of the booze truck to the fraternity house during rush week. Two students die, others have car accidents and the fraternity house catches on fire. Should he have seen this coming? Only with open eyes..but his boss loved the money made on the deliveries and the benefits were good while they blasted.
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    • Wed Apr 16th 10:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      On the Efficiency of Markets
      "A market is said to be efficient if all the available information is instantly processed when it reaches the market and it is immediately reflected in a new value of prices of the assets traded."
      In truth the price of a stock at any point in time is an instantaneous auction between buyer and seller. This may or may not based on the belief that all available information is known at that point in time. If we only take Bear Stearns for investigation we know that information can change quickly. Looking backward we can arrive at a number of "theories" which are at best probabilities with a high degree of confidence in predicting past events. Looking forward with the same '"theories" are less successful.
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    • Wed Apr 16th 09:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commercial Real Estate Imploding
      The "staggering gross incompetence" of our government exacerbated by the current Republican Administration is at the core of the problem. With so many conflicts of interest it's amazing things are not worse. Washington needs statesman not politicians with ideology gone awry. The report card for FEMA, FDA, FAA, OSHA, EPA, SEC and most other government bureaucracies is embarrassing. There's too much big money controlling our legislation and loopholes are black holes. So how does the FED paddle up shits creek without a paddle? Bernanke is facing lousy choices. He has a 98+ % chance of being criticized no matter what he does. The FED can only try to fix a small part of a huge problem. As with sub-prime there are lots of suspects in the crime.
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    • Tue Apr 15th 06:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Core Banking Businesses Very Profitable Despite Writedowns and Loan Losses
      Chad: Since you like to have fun with numbers I am most interested in your projection of Wachovia as a new entity taking Q1 numbers as shown. Forget the trash and forget the potential goodwill impairment. Then use historical average key ratios for "Banking" plus "Chad factors". Then project a value of the stock 2-3 yrs down the rd. Think of this as a graduate school exercise. Let us know what Q1 tells you projected in the future.
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