pochovilla

The $700 Billion Disconnect: Lost in Translation

I'll agree Bernanke is an apprentice politician. He is uncomfortable with his current situation but knows how to defer on questions that are not in his area of responsibility. As for Paulson, I totally disagree with your premise that he is not a politician. Political savy is in the corporate world is a key to rising up the corporate ladder.
Paulson can read his written testimony with conviction. When it comes time to answer questions he is nebulous and does not install confidence. His record of saying one thing and doing something else is well documented. The political pit bulls feast over his flip/flops.

Bear Bottom Yet to Be Seen - Barron's

Holly COW. Barron's is going back to it's core principles. This is the first SA Barron's article that I can remember (last couple of months) that doesn't put a positive spin on the MARKET.
Airlines, Housing, Financials and Real Estate are well into bear territory. With few exceptions there are no places to hide. This is a traders market not an investors market yet. Real bargains will emerge. We'll all know what there are (were) in about 2-5 years.

The Dow In Euros

Go to Europe. Room food car rental etc. No DOW required. Make sure you have enough US $'s to return.
Sure would like to see DOW value in "cornflakes". Maybe just the price of "corn" would do.

Weekly Street Sentiment: Facts Are Stubborn Things

The attention span of the average person is about ten seconds. The herd moves on "headlines" and 10 second snippets without context. Except for a rare few (Kill the messenger) who can put meaning behind the "data" or "possible facts" the pundits grab 90% of the headlines.
Consider the following:
"It's hard to change people's minds with facts" Thomas Sowell

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
As I tell my daughter in Manhattan, "My advice and $10.00 may get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks"

The Liquidity Tsunami

I would say this would make an excellent example of the trickle down theory. If liquidity was measured as 1000 gallons of water which was to be distributed by Investment Banks to the drought victims how many gallons would reach those in need? If you consider fees, reserve for future droughts, transaction costs and Investment Bank consumption and maybe a little bit of hoarding and flow rate calculations it might mean we need a better understanding of the metric system which measures volume in ml (milliliters).
Good news for Investment Banks is not necessarily good news for consumers.

What about the Pocket Recessions?

Pocket recession? More than you think. Add a few cities and the list grows. After paying for gas, food, energy doctor/dentist visit the consumer (at least a very large number) looks in the pocket and is reminded about a personal pocket recession that economists consider anecdotal. The feel good GDP number (.6%) has a very large portion of retail gasoline price increases reflected in the raw number. While this may make pundits declare "what recession ?", this opinion is not evenly distributed among "we the people".
I watched Hillary in Indiana do a photo op (video) at a filling station. Apparently this is the first time in several years that she paid for gas. If the truck was diesel powered the shock value would have been better. It's a good thing she doesn't have to deal with home heating fuel at her residences.

Commercial Real Estate Imploding

The "staggering gross incompetence" of our government exacerbated by the current Republican Administration is at the core of the problem. With so many conflicts of interest it's amazing things are not worse. Washington needs statesman not politicians with ideology gone awry. The report card for FEMA, FDA, FAA, OSHA, EPA, SEC and most other government bureaucracies is embarrassing. There's too much big money controlling our legislation and loopholes are black holes. So how does the FED paddle up shits creek without a paddle? Bernanke is facing lousy choices. He has a 98+ % chance of being criticized no matter what he does. The FED can only try to fix a small part of a huge problem. As with sub-prime there are lots of suspects in the crime.

How Now, Charles Dow?

The Dow Theory probably works well with normal tides. If you place a stick in the sand during nor'easter you may not find the stick. Then there are rip tides and tsunami's. The question becomes what kind of tide are we in?

Big Brother Monitors Investment Activity

If the Fed truly becomes a watchdog then if the Big Boys are paying attention to the watchdog Can we conclude that risk needs to be decreased? Then the E of P/E is like to be e as in P/e. Smaller!

What is a No-Brainer Investment?

No brainer investment. That's when the majority of people who have no brains invest. There are lots of fools to be fooled.

How Bad Will the Recession Get?

Wow. Great job. Not one single chart. Just simple addition in your calculation of GDP. Very thoughtful. One question. When the Government spends money how much trickles back into the economy as productive use of money? What is your guess as the ROR?

Main Street Sacrificed to the Gods of Wall Street

(Sunday) .25 + (Tuesday) .75 = .75
Conclusion. The FED is getting tough on inflation because the Street expected 1.0
Is this a loss of memory? Poor arithmetic skills? Were the quants off this week? Sunday's cut doesn't count because it wasn't a normal business day?
I learned .25 + .75 = 1.0 Where did I go wrong?

U.S. Equities: Past Returns Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Performance

Mark: See if you can be invited to Kudlow's Klown Show. I'll bet you wouldn't be able to speak three sentences before an argument interrupts and no one can hear what your saying.
Nice work. If you recite Graham... then either now or in the past you had (have) common sense which has more value than Platinum/oz.
Of course this is boring stuff and has little entertainment value.

Mortgage Delinquencies on the Rise; Indicators of Future Foreclosures

"The real issues are whether or not an individual can afford their monthly payment" That's where the nail meets the head. By any common sense meaning of housing affordability too many of these loans were virtually upside down at the start. Is there any data that shows how much of the closing cost above the appraised value (inflated or not) was rolled into the loan. Add moving expenses and new home start up expenses etc plus increased utility expenses and the mortgagee was likely stretched from the get go. Then add in the nasty surprise between year one to year two those incremental tax and insurance expenses...and we can anticipate the rest of the story that does not show up in the charts.

Stagflation in the 1970s vs. Today’s Economy

Consider a translation of consumer liquidity as "drowning in debt" Add out of control credit card fees , interest and penalties which boost profits until the write offs occur and put that in the analysis for your next headline. The conditions of this economy do not have a good fit with any time in history. It would be instructive to know the definition of consumer liquidity, how the data is collected and what is the source of the data.The fact that most Banks and Brokerage firms did not identify the risk with the unwinding of derivatives still needs to play out. By then we may be very liquid (underwater)