yank

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

Jerry:
"Even more if Repubs don't stop fighting it".
What the hell are you talking about? The Repubs are trying to stop us from sliding into socialism. If you think that is a "bad thing" I suggest you consider moving to Canada or Europe. If a Great Depression is coming I can't think of a more inexperienced, unqualified, naive narcisist to run this country into the ground than Obama. You idiots were the ones who voted for "change". That's exactly what you got morons.

Yank


On Oct 17 08:55 AM jerrydd wrote:

>
> Good article.
>
> Venndata, U6 is already at 17+% unemployment and many places like
> Fla are about 20% U-6, the old way of measuring it.
>
> Many in Washington, wall street just don't know or want to know how
> bad main street has become. Another number that gov has badly made
> is inflation. For most people from 2000 to 2008 real inflation, what
> we actually paid for things has went up 100% which means our wealth
> has dropped 50%.
>
> Now add our wages have barely increased and many have had a 40% pay
> cut in buying power. So those who think people spending is going
> to bring us out are fooling themselves. This is the same inflation,
> loss of real wealth that happened under Regean/Bush41.
>
> The whole US is going to be completely changed by this debt, mismanagement
> and it's going to take a decade to recover from. Even more if repubs
> don't stop fighting it.

Oil's Up and Down Ride

Article was absolute crap. No basis for any of the conclusions the author reached. Wishing for $20 oil is about as useful as wishing to become a billionaire. Nice but it ain't going to happen. The dollar bears over the past month or so have been "roasted alive". Burn baby burn!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oil Traders Bullish; Analysts Aren't

No it isn't. We all have to come to grips with the fact that the "easy oil" is long gone. Gone too are the "good old days" of $20 oil. The "inflation" in operating costs for explorwers and drillers require a floor of $70 oil to be economically viable. When prices dip and remain below that threshold projects are either delayed or cancelled. I almost "lost my lunch" last week when Rex Tillerson (Exxon CEO) said oil demand would remain at depressed levels for 20 years. Now Rex is ordinarily one smart guy but he must have taken one too many puffs on the "bong". For oil demand to stay at these levels one of two things MUST happen:

1. At least a decade long global depression must occur.
2. Population growth rates in the "emerging markets" must either reverse or flatten out.

Sorry, I just don't see either of those things happening. I guess my main point is that demand will recover, OPEC will continue to restrain production to support prices, and Non-OPEC production will continue to lag.

Just my assessment as an investment advisor. I would go with the oil traders before the analysts any day. I don't think these analysts "know where their dick is."

Yank


On Oct 15 10:46 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> This is an interesting article, and pedagogically valuable. I can
> understand why analysts are not bullish though. In the light of the
> international macroeconomy, the price of oil is too high

Bernanke's Exit Strategy: Not Likely Any Time Soon

Peck:
You said you actually like what Obama is doing. What's to like? They guy is an overconfident, inexperienced narcissist. Is that what you want in your President? I sure as hell don't.

Yank


On Oct 10 11:05 AM Bolton Peck wrote:

> In laymen's terms: We'll just keep kissing the bank's asses for an
> indefinite period..
>
> There are a lot of great ideas floating around on this site, it's
> too bad most of them won't get put into play. This financial sector
> team will be the undoing of the Obama administration. That's too
> bad because I like him and what he's doing in a lot of other areas.

Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices: Like Déjà Vu All Over Again

Dream on. And one other thing. It is NOT correct what you said about gasoline demand going down. In the past two months gasoline demand has INCREASED considerably over year-ago levels. Hoping for lower oil prices does not make it so. And the USD will continue to head lower.

Scary Drop in Velocity of Money: Is Deflation Knocking?

The answer to your question about why gold isn't trading at $3,000 is quite simple. It has been continuously "capped" through gold leasing programs, swaps, and other subtrefuge by our fearless leaders at the Fed. There is a rumor (unsubstantiated of course) that if you went to visit the vaults at Ft. Knox and opened the door, you would find absolutely ZERO gold bars. It has all been leased/sold endlessly for the past 20 years to "suppress" gold prices. A few months ago the "criminals" that run the COMEX metals exchange were literally within hours of defaulting on a huge gold options contract. Panicked calls were made to Central Banks and money center banks everywhere to find the gold to "cover" the trade. Deustche Bank finally came up with the 800k oz. of gold needed just barely in the nick of time. These bankers are the worst type of whore and charlatan you have ever seen.


On Sep 04 12:00 AM C.S. Jefferson wrote:

> Deflationary pressure isn't knocking, it's here! It's been steadily
> eroding liquidity in the markets by not allowing the ol' Ponzi scheme
> of floating outrageous debt to equity ratios based on paper assets!
>
>
>
> All those that cry inflation are premature as to assessing the true
> risk in the markets.
>
> I believe Bernanke has a true understanding that the first priority
> is to protect against asset deflation when it comes to implementation
> of monetary policy.
>
> Want the proof? Why isn't gold trading at $3,000 per troy ounce--and
> why did it barely clip $1,000 in the height of the credit crisis/market
> crash during 2008?

Rayonier Attracts Unusual Options Trade

Joe:
All well and good except for the part of "overvalued and nearing its all-time high". I don't know what its "all-time" high is but RYN @$39 is trading 20% off its 5-yr high, which was $49.55
Just wanted to put your comment in its proper context. RYN may or may not be overvalued at this point but over the past 50 years timber has produced a return that easily matches or beats the S&P.

Yank


On Oct 01 08:38 AM Joe Kunkle wrote:

> Is it more likely the trader bought the calls as protection and went
> short 960K shares. I see the shares traded on an uptick, but for
> this size of a trade and the liquidity it could easily be a short
> equity position. I think that would make more sense as a trade....0.56
> delta on the calls offers protection, but not perfectly hedged. There
> does not appear to be much reason to be long shares int his over-valued
> REIT nearing all time highs.

Newspapers: Why Bail Out Another Failed Industry?

Leftfield:
Wholeheartedly agree with you. I guess the only other thing to point out to those "enchanted" with newsprint is to take notice that right now the NY Times has exactly ONE offer on the table for its "distressed" Newspaper, the Boston Globe. That offer is a "Take it or Leave it" offer of $35 million. In 1993 the NY Times paid $1.1 BILLION for the Boston Globe. Aren't you glad the NY Times isn't managing your portfolio? The Times is "toast" and will not survive in its present form until the next Presidentail election in 2012. Too bad.

Yank


On Sep 23 11:19 AM Leftfield wrote:

> The MSM has been killing themselves for far longer than just a few
> quarters of lousy revenues. They have constantly been on full left
> tilt since the 60's, in their "news" reports. Now there are alternatives.
>
> They were making money while the debacle that is wracking our country
> was building. Possibly the most amazing fact of all is the dog that
> didn't bark during that time, the MSM. Then or now.
> They've gotten the bloated government they asked for and the president
> they are most enchanted with. But, they are showing the results of
> it: A private economy on life-support and control by a few oligarchs.
> Their hope now seems to be, to join the breadline of privileged failures,
> for bailouts.

A Few Truths About Oil

Jerry:
Reality check for you. It was the Congress (controlled by Repubs from 1994-2000) that passed all these wonderful programs that you seem intent on giving Clinton credit for. Increasing taxes has NEVER led to prosperity anywhere. And once again let's shed some accuracy into the lies and distortions of the mass media. Tax revenues INCREASED from 2002-2006 after Bush's tax cuts. It was the out of control spending on the two wars and domestic programs that led to our ballooning deficit.

Yank


On Sep 22 08:03 AM jerrydd wrote:

> On Sep 22 06:46 AM Vitautas wrote:

Prepare for a Drop in Diesel and Gasoline Prices

Bob:
Wow. You are trying real hard to talk oil prices down. Unfortunately it will take a lot more than that to reduce the price of crude. One point to remember is that crude prices are not determined by what demand WAS during this past summer, this past Labor Day, blah, blah, blah. Crude prices are moving higher because traders believe we have turned the corner on this recession and 2010 will see growth returning to our GDP. That may or may not prove to be the correct call. The other part of the rise as you know is due to US Dollar (USD) weakness. Once again we are surrounded by "hand wringers" that forecast continued deflation and a flight to safety, thereby bolstering the USD. Sad to say it, but that trade is getting a bit old. Investors have decided that the USD is the new "carry trade" replacing the Japanese Yen. Continued monetization of US debt (as foreigner's appetite for US Treasuries wanes) adds even more weakness to the USD. All in all, I think your dream of $40 oil is nothing more than that. A dream.

Yank

Despite Earlier Contrarian Signals, China Keeps Buying U.S. Treasuries

Long-term Treasuries are a very dangerous gamble right now. With the inevitable rise in inflation any long-term debt instrument will be crushed as interest rates soar. The Chinese bettter be careful what they buy here.


On Sep 18 07:05 AM chap08 wrote:

> Yes, good article and something that should not be forgotten. China
> will keep buying treasuries until it no longer needs the US consumer.
> That will only happen when Asia has a fully developed middle class
> - which is years away. Given that China has to hold treasuries, it
> makes sense for them to hold longer term, rather than short term,
> as atleast they'll get some yield. Meanwhile, at the margin, they
> will continue to look for ways of diversifying their dollars.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Moving Towards Transparency

Brad:
I could be wrong but all this commodity trading "reform" will accomplish is a shift in commodity trading to foreign markets in places like London, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. Another case of our illustrious economic leaders shooting themselves in the foot again in an effort to provide "transparency".

Yank

Oil Supply: As Russian Production Tops Out, World Supply Will Continue to Slip

Runner:
a little touchy about the townhalls are we? Unfortunately Northstar is correct. The Dems are doing everything in their power to self-destruct. That includes ignoring constituents, continuing to milk the system for more graft and payoffs and ticking off their most important constituency, seniors who now will not vote for a Democrat if they were running for dog-catcher. The Dems are the party of corruption, cheating, mass media distortion, and union thugs trying to intimidate public speech. Are you sure you want to defend that track record? I sure as hell would not.

Yank


On Sep 13 12:19 PM Road Runner wrote:

> Take your conservative cult zombie talk somewhere else. This is not
> a town hall meeting.

Forget the 1930s; We're Reliving 1975 (Part II)

Ferdinand:
I suppose those "pesky" Presidential approval ratings which have plummeted from 63% in March to 42% this month are meaningless. No, what's really going on is that most peole have figured out correctly that the "Great Zero" is clueless whne it comes to managing anything. How could it be otherwise? We have basicaly elected a politician with ZERO economic experience, ZERO management experience, and ZERO foreign policy experience. Expecting him to succeed is an exercise in futility.


On Jul 28 09:12 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> If what you say is true, and it might be true, then there is no -
> what you call - "bad news". It's roses all the way.
>
> Sorry folks who had hoped to see Mr O. and his government fall on
> their face, and there are plenty of those in this site.

What the IEA Doesn't Want You to Know About Peak Oil

Your last sentence is absolutely false. I recently read an article less than a month ago that Peterbilt engines will be produced in the next year to run on natural gas. Production is estimated to be 500k engines in 2010. Check your facts before spouting off.


On Sep 06 02:40 PM Alan von Altendorf wrote:

> Tar sands are not interesting at $60. Grand Banks, Canadian Arctic,
> and Canadian Bakken are good plays. EnCana has US assets, Husky is
> prospecting internationally. Chinese are buying in to swap USD for
> energy assets all over the world. It doesn't have anything in particular
> to do with tar sands, although tar is a very low risk low tech resource
> -- just dig it up, add heat -- and slightly cheaper than gas-to-liquids.
> Canada is energy self-sufficient with marginal potential for net
> exports, depending on what happens in the Arctic frontier play.<br/>
>
> Mexico is kaput. Venezuela and Columbia are more or less on the edge
> of a first class wipeout: either war or industrial disaster IMO.
>
>
> Bottom line, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are #1 and #2 in terms of US
> liquids. Deepwater GOM is #3. That's why everybody is screaming for
> US natgas as a dependable cheap substitute for oil. Which is a misplaced
> article of faith. There won't be any NG-powered F-16s or 787s, no
> NG-powered Abrams tanks or Humvees, no shiny new Peterbilts that
> run on compressed natgas.