yank

http://www.powiscapital.com
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84 Comments

    • Sun Nov 16th 13:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What's Oil's Future?
      Ridiculous assessment. "There might be a better time to buy oil companies". When exactly ? When their p/e is at ZERO? You have profit machines like OXY, CVX, and DVN trading at p/e's of 3. Are you kidding me? These companies are growing EPS 30-35% per year and trading with a PEG as low as 0.3 AS Peter Lynch often said, it doesn't get any better than that. Any company growing earnings trading with a PEG below 0.5 is a "steal". Waiting for a better entry into energy companies is foolhardy indeed.
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    • Tue Nov 11th 09:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Winners Will Be Those Who Look to Gold and Commodities
      Jim Rogers, the commodity guru has plainly stated that commodity bulls end when supplies overwhelm demand. Well, that ain't happening right now as everyone from Rio Tinto to Souther Copper to Freeport McMoran is cutting back on production dramatically. Mines are being closed and CAPEX slashed. How long do you think it will be before demand swamps supply? Not very long in my opinion. As for the comment posted here that China is being slammed by inflation. That is not entirely correct. Inflation has DECLINED in China over the past three quarters allowing China to lower interest rates three times in the last two months. What exactly do you think will happen when China's stimulus package is implemented? Remember it is almost 10x the size of the US stimulus package. You "gloom and doomers" need to get a life.
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    • Sun Nov 9th 15:02 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Energy: A Value Trap - Merrill
      We are going to take "value" advice from a company (Merrill) that pushed itself to the brink of bankruptcy? Don't think so. Let us all remember that it was Merrill Lynch that:

      1. Closed up its commodity trading in 2001 (right before commodities exploded higher by triple digits).
      2. Recommended selling all precious metals positions in 2002 (right before gold/silver took off on a 200% gain).
      3. Predicted in 2002 that oil would remain cheap in the $20 range for the indefinite future.

      So, you want me to believe anything that Merrill Lynch has to say? If anything is a "value trap" today it is the BROKERS. Operating with a flawed business model, undercapitallized, and with mistrust of their financial reporting, brokers are a trap that all investors should avoid for the foreseeable future.
      Unlike the brokers, the oil companies actually produce something of value that is needed by this society. Quite simply oil companies and others in the energy complex are currently priced as if they were going bankrupt. I hate to break it to you but XOM, CVX, and OXY are not going bankrupt anytime soon. But Merrill Lynch, that's another story..............
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    • Tue Oct 21st 10:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where Will Oil Go From Here?
      Let's expose Obama tax policy for what it is. Redistribution of wealth along the lines of a European socialist country like Sweden. But let's also be "clear" about the unpleasant truth about taxes. The top earning bracket of taxpayers is paying MORE in taxes since 1988. Yes that is an undeniable truth. And of course conveniently omitted in any media hyberbole is that middle class and lower class taxpayers already received a tax cut in the 2002 tax cut cycle. Obama is incredibly deceitful when he spins this yarn of how the lower class gets shafted in their tax bill. It's a regressive tax structure. People who earn more, pay more taxes. People earning less, pay less taxes. This guy is a snake oil salesman. He is a pied piper who will seductively lead everyone right over the cliff. All smoke and mirrors. He cannot back up what he is saying. A resume that thin with no foreign policy experience, no executive experience, no legislative experience, etc.
      Simply unqualified to be President of the USA. Period.
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    • Sat Oct 18th 17:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Charts of the Day: Gold, and Baltic Dry Index
      Deflation is occurring right now but as history has proven in Weimar Germany, Zimbabe, and other places, it generaslly leads to hyperinflation, which is constructive for gold. There is no way in the world that Bernake and Paulson let deflation get away from them. They will pump so many dollars into the sustem it will make your head spin. And deflation will be killed.
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    • Fri Oct 17th 11:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      OPEC Embarks on a Fool's Mission
      $30 oil is a pipedream. We will see massive cuts in oil E&P capex before that happens. I am not an OPEC defender but simple economics is tellng you today that the world needs LESS oil, not more. So it is quite logical for OPEC to produce LESS oil, not more, global recession or not. Many oil companies cannot earn profits with oil below $60. Look at Suncor, the largest operator in the Canadian oil sands. They have already indicated that they will cut production significantly if oil goes below $70 and stays there. The saudis and other mideast countries are in the middle of massive CAPEX projects to expand oil production and refining. Many if not all of these projects are so costly with high labor and materials that they are not viable with oil below $75-80. They will simply stop these projects in their tracks before they lose money. The days of cheap oil are gone forever. Think our production will catch up to demand? Think again. Russia, Mexico, and Norway, three of the largest oil exporters in the world have all reported significant DECLINES in production year-to-date. I guess only the geologists and petrochemical engineers are smart enough to understand the importance of oil to the global economy. There simply is no viable, economical substitute for oil right now. Period.
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    • Wed Oct 15th 10:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is It Safe?
      Shiv:
      I generally agree with everything you said except for the RIG comments. If you look at RIGs valuation with a PEG of 0.4 and other metrics, it suggests a forward oil price of $25-30. Is that realistic? I don't think so. In all the hysteria this week about oil demand destruction the news out of China yesterday went completely unnoticed. They imported a record 20 million tons of oil in September, a 10% increase yoy. So much for demand destruction. RIG is basically being given away at these price levels. The full value of this stock is around $160, making it a "double from here.

      Newby
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    • Wed Oct 15th 09:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Schumer Is Way Off
      Yogidad:
      And Schumer doesn't either. He is nothing more than an egotistical ham. He makes my skin crawl he is such a shill.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 14th 16:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has the Energy 'Tsunami' Been Aborted?
      The constant drumbeat of "demand concerns" over oil is nothing but hype and false propaganda. Go to Bloomberg.com and pull up today's article, "China Increases September Oil Imports 10% on Demand". Oh I guess the oil bears didn't read that one. Pathetic.
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    • Mon Oct 13th 10:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are Analysts Being Fooled By The Data?
      Cam:
      Excellent point you raised. I do believe it's the freezeup in credit and NOT decreased demand for goods that has pounded the BDI. Just look at today's release of the latest surplus numbers from China. The September trade surplus widened to a record balance. Would this be happening if China's economy was grinding to a halt? I think not. The idiots today were projecting that China's GDP would slide to 4% growth in 2009. This is an absolutely preposterous number that is competely offbase and without any substance to back it up. If that were allowed to occur there would be massive civil unrest and disturbances. The powers-to-be in Beijing would simply not permit it to happen. Major economic stimulus measures are already underway coming out of the Olympics. China will grow at 10% this year and slightly less (9.5%) next year.

      Yank
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    • Sun Oct 12th 15:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has the Energy 'Tsunami' Been Aborted?
      "Merrill Lynch calling for $50 oil"
      Wait, you mean the same Merrill Lynch that closed their commodities trading desk in 2001 right at the beginning of the current commodity bull?
      Or do you mean the Merrill Lynch that recommended selling gold and other precious metals in 2002, reight before gold moved from $200 to $900/oz? Perhaps it's the Merrill Lynch that perpetuated the "risk pricing model" that eventually pushed itself into a state of virtual bankruptcy?
      Let's set the record straight. EVERYTHING that Merrill Lynch says or recommends is subject to huge scrutiny. These guys are simply not capable of correctly forecasting anything, whether it's commodity prices, strength of financial products, or anything else. I would not believe ANYTHING they say about anything. In fact, they are probably the best contrarian indicator of all the investment bankers. Oh, that's right. I forgot. They are not an investment bank anymore. They changed their stripes again. Take my advice and DO NOT use Merrill Lynch as a plug or indicator for anything. These guys are absolute clowns.
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    • Tue Oct 7th 10:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Breaks Down Again
      Russia just reported another dismal quarter for oil production. Non-OPEC oil supplies this year will be their lowest in almost 20 years. US gasoline inventories are at a 40 year low. Simply put, OPEC has drawn a line in the sand. $90 is the new "support level" or floor that they will enforce. Many Saudis have said publicly that billions of dollars in CAPEX projects underway are only economically viable with oil at $90 or above. So you can expect another production cut at the December cartel meeting or sooner. We will not see a sustained move below $90. Oil futures have moved from contango to backwardation which is bullish for oil prices.
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    • Sun Oct 5th 12:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt
      BX Capricorn hit the bullseye. As long as Wall St runs its Vegas-casino and there is no hedge fund transparency, companies will for sure take a hard look at "dellisting"... This is the most corrupt, inept SEC in our history.
      Why would anyone want to become a publicly traded company in this chaos? IPOs hitting a 40 year low answers the question. They don't want to play this con game.
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    • Sun Oct 5th 12:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      People Still Need to Eat: Fertilizer Stocks Oversold
      Agree that analysts simply are playing their usual "dirty tricks game". Gee, POT "only" grew EPS several hundred percent Yoy. Why would I own a company generating that kind of cash when I can chase speculative, bankrupt financial companies. Give me a break! The analysts are the referee in a footballl game ordering that the goalposts be moved closer (or further away from) to the kick depending on who's kicking. If it's a commodity company make the kick as long as possible. It's almost as if POT was the kicker getting ready to make a 30 yard field goal to win the game and the referee decided to move the ball out to the 50 yard line. Sorry about that guys. It also works in reverse. With the Financials they simply lower the estimates to dirt cheap and then when they beat, the backslapping begins and the all-clear is sounded to buy Financials again. The whole nauseating process is rigged and rotten to the core. Wall St. really does deserve to go out of business. Financial capitol of the world? My ass.
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    • Fri Oct 3rd 10:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      7 Rules For Investing During the Fourth Quarter
      If what you are saying is correct then the commodity bull is dead. Here is why I believe you are WRONG:

      1. China just reported quarterly GDP which remained close to 10%. Estimates for 2009 are for a GDP of 9%. Hardly a global depression by any means. China's earthquake restorationand urbanization will continue to require enormous quantities of metals, oil, and other hard assets.
      2. If this bull is dead it would mark the shortest commodity bull market in history. Again, a very unlikely scenario. Mining supply constraints continue to hamper production of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other base metals.
      3. Jim Rogers just started another commodity fund last month. Why would he do so if the commodity bull run is over? Short answer: He would not.

      4. Your comment about a market that cannot move higher without Financials is the typical Wall St. party line, which off course is self-serving and off-base. Financials from a technical standpoint (just ask Lousie Yamada or Carter Worth) are in a confirmed downtrend which is not likely to reverse for several years. Unlike Financials, commodity producers actually produce "things" that economies actually use.

      I cannot recall another period in the market where the regulators have absolutely failed investors. This SEC is one of the most corrupt and inept ones ever. Buy n hold is dead because it's been killed by mo-mo hedge funds that chase returns and jump in and out of stocks. Sarbox has also killed any domestic companies ability to grow profits.

      Thes guys have turned Wall St. into a Vegas-style craps table where it is now virtually impossible to establish an accurate value for stock prices. Thanks guys. Somebody needs to go to jail for this travesty.
      View article »
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