yank

Commodities Wrap-Up: Don't Get Too Long

wacha:
Good points. The Fed is playing a very dangerous game here. They publicly whine and moan about how bad "deflation" is and behind the scenes they are draining reserves from M2. Funny I thought this was the key lesson that Bernake learned from studying the Great Depression. Mainly the disastrous mistake made by Hoover's people to withdraw liquidity from the system. It was the "death knell" for the decade of the 1930s. Let's hope Bernanke does not repeat that mistake. Concerns about future inflation although legitimate are still far away on the horizon. The primary challenge right now is to stop deflation. I'm not sure the Fed understands that.

Yank

Fertilizer Manufacturers Face an Uphill Battle

Good points. And believe it or not there are reports that an Arctic expedition to measure the ice shelf ran into a problem. All of their calibration and testing equipment FROZE. I kid you not. And of course every attempt was made by the left-wing media to either squelch the story or distort and twist it to suit their agenda. We call know how godd they are at doing that. Global warming? What a joke.


On Apr 19 01:42 AM ArtfulDodger wrote:

> grh1212:
>
> You are wrong about the IPCC report.
>
> In part:
> "The truth is very different. Most of the media articles you will
> see refer to reports issued by the IPCC. The IPCC is the Intergovernmental
> Panel on Climate change, a political body appointed by the UN. Many
> of the 3,000 members of this panel are not scientists, but simply
> political appointees. The few real scientists on the panel have disputed
> the panel's findings but have been silenced by having their comments
> deleted from the reports.
>
> Several of these scientists have asked to have their names removed
> from the IPCC report, but have had their requests denied. Several
> have actually sued the panel to have their names removed, but few
> have been successful.
>
> The actual fact regarding consensus on this issue is that there are
> many more scientists who dispute the claims regarding global warming
> than there are who support them."
> See here:
> www.firecongress.org/a...
>
>
> On Apr 18 05:48 PM grh1212 wrote:

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

BX Capricorn hit the bullseye. As long as Wall St runs its Vegas-casino and there is no hedge fund transparency, companies will for sure take a hard look at "dellisting". This is the most corrupt, inept SEC in our history.
Why would anyone want to become a publicly traded company in this chaos? IPOs hitting a 40 year low answers the question. They don't want to play this con game.

Is This Oil Bubble Going to Deflate?

For all those US-centric people out there let me gently point out that although gasoline demand in the US is down 0.7% in 2008, emerging market demand (China, India, etc.) is UP 3.7% year-to-date. So much for the bashers of the "decoupling" argument. Unless you "suspend" the rules of mathematics, the net effect of the above is an INCREASE of 3% in gasoline demand. As for the "alternative energy" argument we are at least 10-15 years away from any meaningful or significant contribution from that technology.
I won't even point out the dreadful news about oil supply; Nigeria's oil production has declined 25% in the last 2 years, Mexico's production decline almost as steep, and the North Sea fields dramatically declining. Add to this the fact that Russia's production this year has dropped for the first time in over a decade and anyone can see we have a supply/demand problem. Deal with it.

Burst Bubble? Commodities' Long-Term Story Remains Intact

Davy:
Right on with your analysis. I have to just laugh when I hear that everyone expected a full point cut and when he "only" cut by 3/4 of a point that was the all clear sign that the USD was on the way back up and commodities were dead. Gee, I must have missed that kind of torturous logic in Deductive Reasoning 101 in high school. Listen up you brain surgeons. Ben cut by 3/4 so he could keep some ammunition for further cuts in April and June. Wow, these people are dense, Davy. They just don't get it. It is NOT the time to pile back into Financials, Retail, or Tech. They are all dead money people. The commodity bull is far, far from over. The uptrend in commodities is clearly intact (Louise Yamada said as much this week). And as for the bold pronouncement that oil demand is dead. Please spare me the idiocy. A decline of 0.1% in one week (yoy) is NOT a meaningful trend people. Did anyone also consider that in February we had some of the worst winter weather in over 25 years and that maybe people don't drive as much when they are shoveling snow out of their driveways? I just marvel at all this stupidity. Commodities will recover this week. You can count on it.

True Wall of Worry Lies in Commodities, Not Equities

Davy:
I hear you about the commodities wall of worry. I've been long precious & base metals, and the energysector since 2002. Along the way I have heard all the maoning and handwringing that these prices are not "sustainable". Let them whine. As Jim Rogers has said we are only in the 2nr or 3rd inning of this supercycle. NO commodity bull market has ever lasted LESS than 15 years. As for gold, many so-called experts have gotten that call wrong. All one need do is look at the current PM of the UK, Gordon Brown. Brown SOLD 500 million tons of gold as the Chancellor of the Exchequer right before gold prices began a triple digit percent move up. Talk about "leaving money on the table". And the Brits went out and elected him Prime Minister! Go figure.

Commodity Analysts Believe the Party's Over

Bloomberg's commodity forecast is pretty much worthless. Nothing is stated to support WHY key commodities will decline this year. Just because they have gone up they will go down? Sorry, it doesn't work that way. Obviously Bloomberg missed the memo from Jim Rogers. We are still in the early stages of a "multi-year" bull cycle in commodities. Most of these hard assets have YEARS to run before they pull back. Bloomberg just doesn't get it.