yank

Base Metal Forecasts Slashed by Wellington West

I guess you people did not get the memo from China. The Premier last week announced a nationwide "subsidy" of all appliances (refrigerators, ovens, etc) to spur domestic consumption. The subsidies will provide a discount of up to 50% of the normal price for these items. That sounds like an awful lot of base metal would be needed to satisfy this increased demand. Wellington analysts are "out to lunch" as usual. Too late. Too wrong.

Is the Bull Run in Commodities Over?

Everyone wants to talk about a commodities bubble but the key point here is the likely duration of a commodity "supercycle". And as Jim Rogers has pointed out on numerous occasions supplies of commodities continue to "lag" demand. Weekly TA is so fond of pointing out that histroy repeats itself no matter what bubble you are talking about. Well, check your history. All commodity bull cycles have lasted at least 10-12 years, some even longer. We are nowhere near the end of this cycle. The world is not going to come to an end just because some US asshole investment bankers forgot about risk management. The demographics of world commodity demand are simply too powerful to be crushed by the idiocy of a few misguided US investment bankers. The commodity supercycle is alive and well. This is a great buying opportunity for oil, nat gas, fertilizers, coal, copper, and other metals.

Yank

True Wall of Worry Lies in Commodities, Not Equities

Davy:
I hear you about the commodities wall of worry. I've been long precious & base metals, and the energysector since 2002. Along the way I have heard all the maoning and handwringing that these prices are not "sustainable". Let them whine. As Jim Rogers has said we are only in the 2nr or 3rd inning of this supercycle. NO commodity bull market has ever lasted LESS than 15 years. As for gold, many so-called experts have gotten that call wrong. All one need do is look at the current PM of the UK, Gordon Brown. Brown SOLD 500 million tons of gold as the Chancellor of the Exchequer right before gold prices began a triple digit percent move up. Talk about "leaving money on the table". And the Brits went out and elected him Prime Minister! Go figure.