Michael L

Solar Breaks Oil Price Dependence

Just wait until the political, and geo-political reality takes hold, vis a vis the likes of Russia and the mid-east, where when oil, if you remember, was at $125 a barrel and the Saudis said they saw no need for a production increase. The West will soon-enough grow tired of being held hostage to dictators, and KGBers. Not to mention the whole global warming thing. Whether you believe it is man-made or not, or for that matter believe in at all, is irrelevant to the issue. The political reality is that it exists, and gobs of money are likely to be spent in attmepting to correct a real universal problem or a delusion, depending on you point of view. The equation is changing. No longer are the variables purely dollars and cents.

It is going to be a long(and bumpy) ride for the solars and other alts, but one which in all likelihood will be very profitable for the patient investor.

Five Stocks to Own Now that the Dow Has Bottomed

SOLF, prehaps VLO. Dow has bottomed? I don't think so.

Will U.S. Recession Lead to Solar Depression?

Are you suggesting that the only thing restraining growth is the lack of raw material? I think not. As far as the point of oil prices driving solar usage, again, I disagree. As much as oil prices, it is the mass hallucination that the world is going to turn to cinders due to global warming. Though many governments have bought global warming in full and no evidence to the contrary will change that, a recession of any magnitude will put environmental concerns on the back burner. The Solars are a great long term investment but they are overdone at the moment. In my opinion, a recession will change their valuation for the worse.


"Excesses are modest away from housing"? Really? Credit card debt is not excessive? Savings are not next to nil? Most Americans are not about 6 months away from financial insolvency? All of which are very likely to be exacerbated in any kind of downturn.

Profit Taking Could Dim Solar Plays

To HK
I realize that there may be a huge disparity in spot vs contract, but presumably the disparity works both ways, i.e., spot prices could dip, especially if demand slackens or production increases(as it most surely will). What then happens to the competitiveness of those locked in at higher prices?


The larger point remains:investors are euphoric over every bit of perceived good news, and, too, they seem to ignore every warning, no matter how cogent. This is beginning to smell like greed run rampant. Maybe, maybe not. God knows, even if that is true, it could drive prices higher for a very long time before anyone gets the point.

Profit Taking Could Dim Solar Plays

On a short-term valuation basis, I agree the solars have about as much substance as sunshine. I would, however, be hesitant, to short them. There is something just short of a mania at work here, but remembering how ridiculous the dot coms got before people came to their senses, it makes me queasy to think what could happen to holders of short positions. I don't think investors have recognized how insane some of this is. When a solar company rises 10% on the news that it has secured a supply of silicon, it tells me that investors are dabbling in something akin to a tulip mania. It is equivalent to GM soaring because it has announced that it bought some steel.