VennData

The Obama Bull

...not only that, the current Commander-in-Chief suggested buying stocks days form the absolute low...

www.usnews.com/article...

Looks Like We're All Communists Now

Movie stars don't bring down the global economy.

The U.S. Economy Doesn't Look Too Bright

You claim "They are in fact holding about $800 billion in reserves and Bernanke and Obama want them released into the economy."

...but Bernanke could simply lower the interest payments on those reserve ratios and it would be in the banks interest to find something else to do with those reserves, and whatever that "what else" would be would be buying assets and increasing credit growth.

More proclamations that "conventional wisdom" of Joe Six Pack is preferable to educated scientists, economist, and researchers don't make it so. It's simply when people don't have the education to understand they chose not to.

Choose to learn. Support science, education not the "feeling" that you know what's best in your guts. You don't.

IBM's Gerstner Favors Taxing Short Term Capital Gains

"...simply because anything long-term in this economy will ultimately result in a 0 valuation..."

I'll take the other side of that. I'll take America.

Why We'll Probably See Another Serious Equities Sell-Off

Another "reason" claimed here is "...A bungled, confused and inept US government response will do little for the economy..."

Such overstatement without detailed references which can be refuted point-by-point are the talking points of a partisan viewpoint.

Continue to hold those "beliefs" and "feelings" ...or, buy when there's blood on the streets. One of those approaches will be rewarded.

Recent Policy Decisions and a Greater Depression

The same people that roll out this sort of stuff were the same folks who tried to shout people down thoughtful disagreements with the former President "during a time of war."

Realize that Bush polices got us into this mess. The opposite policies will get us out. We have a surfeit of capacity and a paucity of demand. Do the math.

Who's Wrong About Inflation?

Why doesn't one of the few remaining CDO /swap packagers put together a swap between the consumer expectations and the TIPs?

Payrolls Drop - And You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet

Financial terrorism? Look, a capitalist economy creates a lemming-like over investment, because people are followers. Those mal-investments need to be corrected, usually with price drops for the asset. We'll be sing that in real estate of the coming years. Price drops.

That's what they mean by a business cycle, but a better term is a self-correction for mal-investment. Those people whose jobs depended on the old system that got to much capital - real estate, finance, auto industry - are losing their jobs and need to go find new ones. That's how you know there was mal-investment, this data is simply proving that. It's not terrorism.

Also not terrorism is the spin job of the Administration unable to even mention the word "Recession." Those are the people who need to learn to speak the truth, not Ms Lien, who is simply delivering the data.

Euro Falls Steeply Against Dollar on Bank Writedowns

Interesting how the Euro's the currency of concern while the company is Swiss. I think that The whole secretive banking thing may be bad for the Swissy in the short near term as well. Will the beneficiary be the Sing. Dollar as their secret banking rules are a decade or so away from being brought to heel.

Inflation Hawk Plosser Speaks Up Against Aggressive Rate Cut

With only five members, two votes is a big deal. One more vote and we may be able to save the dollar.

The Fed is Deflating: 10 Reasons Why

When the Fed releases $200B of bonds for collateral, that collateral must go out an get cash FIRST before buying assets, so there’s is no net gain loss of currency (M1) since the banks must get the cash by exchanging those new bonds for cash SOMEWHERE ELSE. The Author is right, Banks don't create cash…

…and the perma-inflationists are wrong. M3 doesn't correlate that’s why the Fed dropped it. M3 is useful only to people trying to market gold to you and their big gamble junior mining stocks.

If the Perma inflationists were right - if M3 was "the tell" - gold would be much higher after all these years of M3 growth, that's why they've created the non-falsifiable “Central Bank conspiracy" to delude the people who buy their gold and gold stocks.

If you want gold, buy GLD. GLD will end their marketing routine since it's cheaper, easier. Bt I’m sorry to say will not outperform in the long haul… Unless… you want to track the future gold price? Look at the trend in Indian weddings, not M3.

Inflation is always and everywhere a fiscal problem (with the help of the big market maker, the Fed, swapping treasuries for cash.) Sure those rare Zimbabwes and 1930's Germany printed tons of money, but that's 1,000% increases of M1, not 3% increases in M1.

Thursday Outlook: Where's the Big Fall?

Quant funds make money in very short term swings, make up half the volume day-to-day. They can continue to step in and make money on the way up and down. Even in days with 100 point hourly, three hundred point daily swings. No human can do these sorts of trades. Two-hundred-factor models running on servers in Weekawken can.


To quote Ted Nugent, "I got you in a stranglehold, Baby. You best get out of the way."

Warning Signs of a Modern Depression: See 1990 Japan

I'm not sure Europe and Japan will be forced to " support us." Politically, the antipathy toward George Bush's America is too great. Who's going to get votes with a "let's help the US" mantra?

Also, with so many inflation indicators among the many deflation indicators, I find it challenging to make a confident prediction of a general move in either direction.

The one overwhelming qualifier I do see is 'poorer.'

The End of the Bear Market?

Looking to history as you do, we had a massive stock market rally when Cap Gains taxes were a bit higher in the Ninties, Sixties etc. We've had no equity gains in this decade with lower cap gain rates. Cap gains taxes have no correlation whatsoever with equity gains.

Can Wall Street Pin the Rap on Societe Generale?

If this is one tenth correct, it's a brilliant piece.

The asymmetric incentive for bankers (a very well-protected industry in the West, if you win you get a bonus, if you don't you work elsewhere) extends to the high incentive to be secretive.

With there access to discount windows, ability to merge to "too big to fail" size and ease of self-financed adventurism, the banks need to start looking a lot like the utilities industry, and pronto.