SchraderTrader

15 Comments

    • Why Oil Won't Penetrate $150/Barrel [view article]
      Read this...

      hsgac.senate.gov/publi...

      If speculators and institutions are the driving force prepare to see a serious correction. VERY good PDF.       May 23 10:00 AM
    • Why Oil Won't Penetrate $150/Barrel [view article]
      Great points and they're well taken. I was looking at more of the short-term (2008) view. I fully expect the cost of a barrel of oil to skyrocket past $200 in the future. However I'm still unconvinced of the continuing appreciation this year.

      IF we get a storm then I'm the first to admit all bets are off and $175's a real possibility, even higher perhaps. However if we don't get a turbulent hurricane and storm season then I think the market's going to bring the price back down before it continues through the $150 mark. Most people are betting against my view so time will tell.       May 23 08:24 AM
    • Apple Facing Serious Downside Risk - Morgan Keegan [view article]
      AAPL had almost two months of consolidation on a nice round bottom and had GRADUALLY risen, not rapidly. That's because the institutional guys need a place to put cash and AAPL is as good as any when trading at a P/E < 40. This is a solid growth story. Apr 08 11:20 AM
    • Recession Strategies: Good Things Come in Small(cap) Packages [view article]
      Excellent research and post. Feb 20 02:39 PM
    • Bye, Bye Best Buy [view article]
      FOLLOW UP

      Bloomberg: BBY cuts forecast for 2008
      www.bloomberg.com/apps...       Feb 15 12:21 PM
    • Ackman vs. MBIA: Self-Serving Propaganda Disguised as Analysis [view article]
      The real question: what happens to them when they're broken up? Feb 15 10:05 AM
    • Ackman vs. MBIA: Self-Serving Propaganda Disguised as Analysis [view article]
      As it stands now though (assuming financial difficulties are on the way), I don't see it as a bargain. The risk is greater on the downside than missing potential upside. There will need to be a strong catalyst (as User124892 stated) to change things. Feb 15 09:42 AM
    • Ackman vs. MBIA: Self-Serving Propaganda Disguised as Analysis [view article]
      If MBIA wasn't in serious trouble and Ackman was completely wrong, why wouldn't Buffett simply acquire the entire package? Why is he going through the startup expense of launching a new insurer? Or why haven't any of the larger banks acquired these insurers? We know they could get an excellent value at this level just purchasing outright based on the long shot you're proposing that MBIA will be fine. HMMMMM, maybe it's because Ackman may be somewhat correct and these companies which acted against their traditional models are going to have to eat a huge piece of humble pie. Maybe they're responding so aggressively because the executives don't want to lose their jobs. Or maybe they are ok, but stepping back and seeing the grander picture tells me otherwise. If they were going to be ok, they would have been acquired by now.

      Ackman did his own due diligence and has attempted to warn people for years about this. You've simply taken what MBIA has provided as a response and created your own personal attack. Well done.

      Finally, you can't blame the guy for positioning himself well prior to announcing his own research, and with FULL DISCLOSURE. I don't know Ackman and I personally hope the insurers do survive but I think personal attacks without one's own evidence is absurd.

      All The Best       Feb 15 08:22 AM
    • Consumers Haven't Given Up Just Yet [view article]
      The consumer is hurting bad, let's get serious here. The key month of the year - Dec - was weak. Folks, why are people still unwilling to believe there's a serious recession here or shortly coming? A bunch of tomfoolery and jibber jabber, that's all it is. Leave hope to the Pope or the markets will prove you're a dope! Feb 13 04:09 PM
    • Is it Time to Jump Back into the Financial Waters? [view article]
      There's a lot of noise about the financials having bottomed out. Wouldn't you suspect another test of the lows before that happens? If lows were tested again many investors would see positions decline in excess of 7 - 10% prior to any sort of significant recovery. You also have to factor in the opportunity cost of not profiting from the rally (you'll be riding back to zero from negative). There's also the issue of the bond insurers potentially losing their credit ratings which could cause another round of write downs at major financial institutions.

      I agree that the exchanges / brokers sound like a solid idea (NYX, CME, NMX, etc.)

      Solid article overall.       Feb 11 10:33 AM
    • Baron Small Cap Fund: SunPower and Flowserve Will See Earnings Double [view article]
      In terms of Flowserve, what will result from a (hypothetically) very severe recession which sees oil decline to $65-$70/barrel? Feb 08 12:27 PM
    • Citigroup: Serious Subprime Risk, Serious About Shoring Up Capital [view article]
      Where's your point? Are you positive or negative on the stock? Feb 07 09:13 AM
    • Moody's' Warning Labels (Sub-Prime Version) [view article]
      Solid opinion Feb 06 08:36 AM
    • Buying the Oversold Financial Sector [view article]
      At this point in time I believe it's still premature to be allocating funds to financials. Recession-level earnings haven't been priced in to firms' models yet and there may be a couple more big shoes left to drop in the sector (credit downgrades, bankruptcies). Citigroup is one of the most vulnerable to these potential downgrades and it's almost a crap shoot as to whether or not they'll get through unscathed. On a risk/reward basis, the downside risk is somewhat limited but big enough to encompass a 20%+ decline from yesterday's close. The upside risk would be missing a major move. By now investors missed Citigroup's ride from $23/share to $30/share (a 30% swing) and it has come back to ~$28. In my opinion, still a dangerous place to be recommending a stock with so much downside left to retest its previous low. Feb 05 11:41 AM
    • Chinese Bear Market Enters 'Unlucky' Numerical Ground [view article]
      What were the gains leading up to each bear market? That may provide us with a more accurate forecast for the extent of this bear market. Jan 29 02:33 PM
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