SchraderTrader

The Long Case for Gushan Environmental Energy

In this environment with so many assets being discounted so deeply I personally would not want to take on the potential risk of a firm where there's been even a "hinting" at potential fraud such as in the article above. Too many good deals out there. I won't speak for the other firm's ratings.

The Long Case for Gushan Environmental Energy

Sorry so late on this - didn't know you commented.

I attempted a translation as well and derived the same conclusion... what strikes me as odd (and the reason I initially was bullish on this stock) was how a firm with such great fundamental strength could be trading at such a discount.... then I remembered the saying 'if it sounds too good to be true it probably is'.

In this environment with the global discounts on virtually every company there are plenty of other places to put one's money. Even hearing the possibility of accounting fraud makes this a stock I no longer would spend time in. Too many opportunities out there to take on the potential risk. Just my opinion for what it's worth.



On Oct 30 04:01 PM Davis wrote:

> Schrader Trader,
>
> Wanted to know if you checked into the GU article mentioned by Cat.
> I followed the link, then Googled "translate webpage", copied the
> web address into the translator and the article was translated.

>
>
> I did this process twice through a Yahoo and a Google translate page.
> The article reads differently with each one, which is interesting,
> but the jist of it is the same.
>
> The article is a little hard to read, as the translation is not prefect,
> but it appears to suggest that the financials reported in GU's financial
> report are not correct and a front to gain more business. It also
> indicates that it is impossible for GU to purchase oil for 2390 yuan
> per ton, as the going rate is 5000 per ton.
>
> Here is the link to the article. finance.sina.com.cn/g/...

>
>
> I would be interested to know what you think about this. There are
> a few reliable stock websites that indicate GU is not only a buy,
> but set to spike, ie. Zacks.com, TheStreet.com and MotleyFool.com.
> Could it be that GU is not all that it appears to be and the news
> has not been entirely uncovered yet?
>
> I am hoping not, as it seems like such a great valuation and opportunity!

>
>
> Davis

The Long Case for Gushan Environmental Energy

Cat's eye

Do you have a link to the article? If you're accurate with what you say then I need to mention that.

Expose Yourself to the Long Side

I agree that things could certainly get worse. However I'm of the opinion at this point that the more significant risk is in missing the upside and not in being caught in the downside.

Why Oil Won't Penetrate $150/Barrel

Read this...

hsgac.senate.gov/publi...

If speculators and institutions are the driving force prepare to see a serious correction. VERY good PDF.

Why Oil Won't Penetrate $150/Barrel

Great points and they're well taken. I was looking at more of the short-term (2008) view. I fully expect the cost of a barrel of oil to skyrocket past $200 in the future. However I'm still unconvinced of the continuing appreciation this year.

IF we get a storm then I'm the first to admit all bets are off and $175's a real possibility, even higher perhaps. However if we don't get a turbulent hurricane and storm season then I think the market's going to bring the price back down before it continues through the $150 mark. Most people are betting against my view so time will tell.

Apple Facing Serious Downside Risk - Morgan Keegan

AAPL had almost two months of consolidation on a nice round bottom and had GRADUALLY risen, not rapidly. That's because the institutional guys need a place to put cash and AAPL is as good as any when trading at a P/E < 40. This is a solid growth story.

Recession Strategies: Good Things Come in Small(cap) Packages

Excellent research and post.

Bye, Bye Best Buy

FOLLOW UP

Bloomberg: BBY cuts forecast for 2008
www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Ackman vs. MBIA: Self-Serving Propaganda Disguised as Analysis

The real question: what happens to them when they're broken up?

Ackman vs. MBIA: Self-Serving Propaganda Disguised as Analysis

As it stands now though (assuming financial difficulties are on the way), I don't see it as a bargain. The risk is greater on the downside than missing potential upside. There will need to be a strong catalyst (as User124892 stated) to change things.

Ackman vs. MBIA: Self-Serving Propaganda Disguised as Analysis

If MBIA wasn't in serious trouble and Ackman was completely wrong, why wouldn't Buffett simply acquire the entire package? Why is he going through the startup expense of launching a new insurer? Or why haven't any of the larger banks acquired these insurers? We know they could get an excellent value at this level just purchasing outright based on the long shot you're proposing that MBIA will be fine. HMMMMM, maybe it's because Ackman may be somewhat correct and these companies which acted against their traditional models are going to have to eat a huge piece of humble pie. Maybe they're responding so aggressively because the executives don't want to lose their jobs. Or maybe they are ok, but stepping back and seeing the grander picture tells me otherwise. If they were going to be ok, they would have been acquired by now.

Ackman did his own due diligence and has attempted to warn people for years about this. You've simply taken what MBIA has provided as a response and created your own personal attack. Well done.

Finally, you can't blame the guy for positioning himself well prior to announcing his own research, and with FULL DISCLOSURE. I don't know Ackman and I personally hope the insurers do survive but I think personal attacks without one's own evidence is absurd.

All The Best

Consumers Haven't Given Up Just Yet

The consumer is hurting bad, let's get serious here. The key month of the year - Dec - was weak. Folks, why are people still unwilling to believe there's a serious recession here or shortly coming? A bunch of tomfoolery and jibber jabber, that's all it is. Leave hope to the Pope or the markets will prove you're a dope!

Is it Time to Jump Back into the Financial Waters?

There's a lot of noise about the financials having bottomed out. Wouldn't you suspect another test of the lows before that happens? If lows were tested again many investors would see positions decline in excess of 7 - 10% prior to any sort of significant recovery. You also have to factor in the opportunity cost of not profiting from the rally (you'll be riding back to zero from negative). There's also the issue of the bond insurers potentially losing their credit ratings which could cause another round of write downs at major financial institutions.

I agree that the exchanges / brokers sound like a solid idea (NYX, CME, NMX, etc.)

Solid article overall.

Baron Small Cap Fund: SunPower and Flowserve Will See Earnings Double

In terms of Flowserve, what will result from a (hypothetically) very severe recession which sees oil decline to $65-$70/barrel?