Asbytec

G20 Urges 'Balanced Global Demand'; China Says 'No'

Hey, got several useless umbrellas I'll let go for cheap...no, you can just have them. I am sure you won't complain, as you're apparently above such behavior..well, except for bashing yanks.

There is a difference between stating fact and whining. Learn that difference, because the one you attribute to my post is a childish one. It's the way you see the world, though childish eyes. Trust me, it shows.

On Sep 28 01:00 PM coreopsis wrote:

> Whine...sigh...always like to see Yanks doing what they do best...whine
>

G20 Urges 'Balanced Global Demand'; China Says 'No'

On Sep 27 12:05 PM kinky wrote:

> To Asbytec:
> They produce in mass what the world order, we wanted >cheap,why they have to bother with quality. You better direct your >comment to the middle men and why not to Wall Mart? Buying >cheap only cost you more in the long run so it is time for you to >start looking at an not cheap umbrella which I hope you can find
>or you can afford . Why it is when producing counterfeit they are
>excellent?
>Our taking too many vacations while they were sweating >unstoppable to satisfy demand did pay for them. Trade will be >imbalanced as far as is paid with fiat money or credit cards.

Okay, some good points. I have heard it argued, and agree, we...the middle men...have imported cheap goods to 'hide' inflation. This is us doing it to ourselves with their help. Our trade relations is a dissertation in itself covering gluttony, debt, bubbles, you name it.

I live in Asia, not the US. I suspect the products the US (middle men) import are of descent quality, as I remember. I've bought fishing gear from Walmart and got many years of good service from it.

It's apparent umbrellas imported here are not. Here, at least, it's bad. I shudder to by stuff made on mainland China, but often have little choice. Most of the stuff sold here is manufactured there and dumped here. The markets and malls are jammed with such stuff. I'd love to buy a descent umbrella, to find one made in the US.

I have heard, but have not collaborated, there exist different export quality standards for developed nations and emerging nations. It appears to be true.

No doubt they are making great strides as a manufacturing nation, building a middle class, and playing hard ball on free trade. (Korea see's China's trade practices as a model for success.) In fact, we have allowed, no, we've welcomed such a relationship. We are reaping the whirlwind today: a collapsed financial system that is (consumer) debt heavy, severe current account deficits (one of the twin pillars of doom), and (the other pillar) funding our public debt.

This is the part of our current crisis I hope and pray 'corrects' in a big way. We become less debt reliant, both public and private, and we balance our trade more closely. And for China to say, "No," demands a response. This is the root of my tongue-in-cheek comment to make them buy their own umbrellas. Let them get wet when their umbrellas fold up during a microburst.

G20 Urges 'Balanced Global Demand'; China Says 'No'

I wish China would buy their own cheap stuff...I am tired of replacing umbrellas every week.

Dollar Worm May Be Turning

I have been a dollar bear for the last year, despite the severe chastening here in SA. The latest developments do make one (re) think. But, we gotta remember, though, deflation is still afoot. So, who knows, really. Just gotta remember we're in a rally, not yet a recovery.

Of course this says the dollar should recover based on any flight to safety. But, as a fundamental, being a safe haven currency doesn't say much for the green back. It should have it's own intrinsic value.

It's not comforting to know our (fiat) store of wealth (and I use that term loosely) maintains its value based on fear of everything else. But, with near zero interest rates, fears of (hyper) inflation, and huge trade deficits...what else does it have? <sigh>

I'd be curious to know how the new global financial regulations affect global liquidity. I hope it tends to strengthen the dollar based on a smaller supply. That would be sweet.

Don't Expect the Dollar to Repeat Its 2008 Performance

Well, if the world switches to another currency, bring our dollars home and burn most of them. Let this new magical currency soar in value as they try to print enough to keep up with demand. That'll be fun.

And what about China in all this? What about the interest of other nations with huge dollar reserves? I am not up on the geopolitical ramifications of such a currency move, I guess they better get this past George Bush, Sr., first, eh? ;-P

Besides, the dollar flows up and down at the whims of the markets. It's the nature of the dollar beast. So, this "new" currency will have troubles from the onset: high valuation, probably higher oil costs, and some geopolitical resistance from some pretty powerful players.

This currency valuation is one reason the euro will not replace the dollar. The euro would soar through the roof and the EZ will run huge trade deficits. The other is EZ demographics.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

Sean, thank you for the clarification. Yes, many indicators, like unemployment, are lagging indicators.

Ron, I believe you're right on both counts. And furthermore, it will be a good long time before anyone buys MBSs...at least in their current form. There will probably be some regulation and rules on transparency forthcoming. Also, on CDS and other instruments. Especially, in the light of the Madoff scandal.

Personally, I hope this means the Fed will actually govern (tighten) the money supply produced on such instruments. If so, I suppose this will mean lower credit limits for many consumers and tighter credit all around. I guess that will be a good thing.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

So, let's see. The Fed has reduced interest rates to zero and is flooding the banks with money. That hasn't even begun to slow our descent into recession. Jobless claims are way up.

And, there is deflation (at least targeted deflation.) Banks are hoarding cash despite Fed's attempts to force them to lend. But, they are not lending and folks aren't borrowing, especially in the all important housing market.

We're firmly in recession and losing jobs with falling home prices. Banks are strapped and don't trust each other. The Big 2 are forced into restructuring and may have a plan to do so in 90 days, but will not be near implementing such a plan. Does this sound like something we can just "snap out" of by mid 2009?

Even if the credit markets begin flowing by June, what about the looming period of (hyper) inflation? Man, we have a long way to do and a lot of work to do before things stabilize.

Greenback's Slumped on the Canvas

Hmmm...the 19th century belonged to England because of it's economic and military empire. The sun never sat until the 20th century. The US, same economic and military empire in the 20th century. Will china have some global military reach this century?

I imagine China's resources are largely untapped and it has massive human resources. It's production is unequaled today. But, one problem is China has not a sufficient middle class, yet. And is still, best I can tell, a command economy (with a free market interface.)

Interesting thought, though...

Greenback's Slumped on the Canvas

The "beggar they neighbor" has begun. Has the eventual collapse of all (most) fiat currencies begun as well? "All fiat currencies fail, and all currencies are fiat."

It's like having that root canal, it'll hurt but not after it's over. And when it's over, my bet is the dollar will be on the top of the heap. I think most central banks believe that, too. I suspect that's why none bought into the euro in mass while it was $1.26. Sure, there is some diversification...but not a wholesale flight from the dollar some have speculated.

Scary times. The greenback is certainly on the canvas with the euro moving in for the choke hold. But, the euro just does not have the demographics or might to supplant the dollar. The EU could never support huge trade imbalances with China.