Asbytec

G20 Urges 'Balanced Global Demand'; China Says 'No'

Hey, got several useless umbrellas I'll let go for cheap...no, you can just have them. I am sure you won't complain, as you're apparently above such behavior..well, except for bashing yanks.

There is a difference between stating fact and whining. Learn that difference, because the one you attribute to my post is a childish one. It's the way you see the world, though childish eyes. Trust me, it shows.

On Sep 28 01:00 PM coreopsis wrote:

> Whine...sigh...always like to see Yanks doing what they do best...whine
>

G20 Urges 'Balanced Global Demand'; China Says 'No'

On Sep 27 12:05 PM kinky wrote:

> To Asbytec:
> They produce in mass what the world order, we wanted >cheap,why they have to bother with quality. You better direct your >comment to the middle men and why not to Wall Mart? Buying >cheap only cost you more in the long run so it is time for you to >start looking at an not cheap umbrella which I hope you can find
>or you can afford . Why it is when producing counterfeit they are
>excellent?
>Our taking too many vacations while they were sweating >unstoppable to satisfy demand did pay for them. Trade will be >imbalanced as far as is paid with fiat money or credit cards.

Okay, some good points. I have heard it argued, and agree, we...the middle men...have imported cheap goods to 'hide' inflation. This is us doing it to ourselves with their help. Our trade relations is a dissertation in itself covering gluttony, debt, bubbles, you name it.

I live in Asia, not the US. I suspect the products the US (middle men) import are of descent quality, as I remember. I've bought fishing gear from Walmart and got many years of good service from it.

It's apparent umbrellas imported here are not. Here, at least, it's bad. I shudder to by stuff made on mainland China, but often have little choice. Most of the stuff sold here is manufactured there and dumped here. The markets and malls are jammed with such stuff. I'd love to buy a descent umbrella, to find one made in the US.

I have heard, but have not collaborated, there exist different export quality standards for developed nations and emerging nations. It appears to be true.

No doubt they are making great strides as a manufacturing nation, building a middle class, and playing hard ball on free trade. (Korea see's China's trade practices as a model for success.) In fact, we have allowed, no, we've welcomed such a relationship. We are reaping the whirlwind today: a collapsed financial system that is (consumer) debt heavy, severe current account deficits (one of the twin pillars of doom), and (the other pillar) funding our public debt.

This is the part of our current crisis I hope and pray 'corrects' in a big way. We become less debt reliant, both public and private, and we balance our trade more closely. And for China to say, "No," demands a response. This is the root of my tongue-in-cheek comment to make them buy their own umbrellas. Let them get wet when their umbrellas fold up during a microburst.

G20 Urges 'Balanced Global Demand'; China Says 'No'

I wish China would buy their own cheap stuff...I am tired of replacing umbrellas every week.

Extreme Pessimism Suggests Dollar Oversold

Are equities oversold?

Dollar Worm May Be Turning

I have been a dollar bear for the last year, despite the severe chastening here in SA. The latest developments do make one (re) think. But, we gotta remember, though, deflation is still afoot. So, who knows, really. Just gotta remember we're in a rally, not yet a recovery.

Of course this says the dollar should recover based on any flight to safety. But, as a fundamental, being a safe haven currency doesn't say much for the green back. It should have it's own intrinsic value.

It's not comforting to know our (fiat) store of wealth (and I use that term loosely) maintains its value based on fear of everything else. But, with near zero interest rates, fears of (hyper) inflation, and huge trade deficits...what else does it have? <sigh>

I'd be curious to know how the new global financial regulations affect global liquidity. I hope it tends to strengthen the dollar based on a smaller supply. That would be sweet.

Greenback's Slumped on the Canvas

Hmmm...the 19th century belonged to England because of it's economic and military empire. The sun never sat until the 20th century. The US, same economic and military empire in the 20th century. Will china have some global military reach this century?

I imagine China's resources are largely untapped and it has massive human resources. It's production is unequaled today. But, one problem is China has not a sufficient middle class, yet. And is still, best I can tell, a command economy (with a free market interface.)

Interesting thought, though...

Greenback's Slumped on the Canvas

The "beggar they neighbor" has begun. Has the eventual collapse of all (most) fiat currencies begun as well? "All fiat currencies fail, and all currencies are fiat."

It's like having that root canal, it'll hurt but not after it's over. And when it's over, my bet is the dollar will be on the top of the heap. I think most central banks believe that, too. I suspect that's why none bought into the euro in mass while it was $1.26. Sure, there is some diversification...but not a wholesale flight from the dollar some have speculated.

Scary times. The greenback is certainly on the canvas with the euro moving in for the choke hold. But, the euro just does not have the demographics or might to supplant the dollar. The EU could never support huge trade imbalances with China.

Memories Are Short, Trends Are Strong: Still Bullish on the Dollar

I, too, am dollar bullish and have been for quite a while (index back in upper 70 territory) despite Fed liquidity injections. The dollar has lost over 30% of it's value over the last few years. It's due for a rebound. Here's why.

My understanding of the credit crisis leads me to believe our money supply is winding down, though I have not seen any figures (up 38%?) Credit is tight and Chinese exports are down. Less dollars are finding their way into the forex. Dollar based safe havens are all the rage, and hedge fund pay outs have a long way to go, yet.

I perceive a long and deep recession coming. Continued market volatility will provide some emphasis on dollar strength, as the author points out. And I see volatility well into 2Q, possibly beyond. The Fed rate is 1%, there is not much room for further cutting and still the markets have not shown many signs of strength.

The euro and the GBP have clear downward trends. The pound is currently in the $1.52 level, the euro at $1.25. Both have continually broken their support levels. Who would have thought that? And the Euro Zone is probably going to ease further as this recession begins to really hit hard next year...maybe through all next year.

The dollar index is again over 87, as of this writing. I read somewhere if it broke resistance at 86, then the trend will become firmly bullish. That has happened.

Lastly, Obama is probably going to advocate a strong dollar policy.
www.guardian.co.uk/bus...

So, I can think of many reasons to be bullish on the dollar, and fewer reasons not to. Though, the dollar will peak sometime. When? Why? And what signs will tell us? Those are the questions. I suspect not for a long while.

Is Bank of England Cutting Interest Rates?

Everything I read says the Euro Zone will ease, with inflation expected to drop as you said. I suspect they will act this week. I am counting on it.

Rescuing the U.S. Dollar

Yep. Keep the credit markets open so we can continue to spend. We can get deeper into debt by borrowing our own tax dollars. What's left? Our productive assets, our homes, and our gold are all pawned off.

Rescuing the U.S. Dollar

Well, it's mute now. The bail out, er, I mean buy in plan failed. We're in uncharted waters. We've been there before. There's rocks on the shore.

If there were some way to let the banks fail and survive, I would vote for that. It was credit that got us in trouble. Remember the plethora of credit cards we all got in the mail?

It seems kind of strange congress and Paulson wanted to give the banks our money so they could in turn lend it back to us so we can get deeper into debt...keeping the debt economy flowing.

Why don't we just give each American half a million dollars and let them pay off their homes? Let the money trickle up for a change. There's an email going around to that effect and it's beginning to make sense.

As for what it means for the dollar? Your guess is as good as any. But we need to take it in context. Europe is in trouble, too. So, let's see what happens to the troubled euro and pound.

But, yes, the massive derivative market has inflated the dollar beyond Fed control.