seriously ?'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/129801/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/97318-it-s-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-and-i-own-gold?source=feed#comment-266729 266729
But why o why has no one mentioned drugs ? No, not just booze and tobacco, those can be easily had. I am talking morphine pills, speed, diabetes medication etc, etc. These will very quickly become the most valued things out there. It will be like having 10,000 life insurance policies. Want to live ? pay the piper. Want to feed that Opioid addiction , need to relieve the pain of the end times ? pay the piper.

Then I'll have all the gold, food and whores a man could ask for. ]]> Sat, 27 Sep 2008 09:23:48 -0400
But why o why has no one mentioned drugs ? No, not just booze and tobacco, those can be easily had. I am talking morphine pills, speed, diabetes medication etc, etc. These will very quickly become the most valued things out there. It will be like having 10,000 life insurance policies. Want to live ? pay the piper. Want to feed that Opioid addiction , need to relieve the pain of the end times ? pay the piper.

Then I'll have all the gold, food and whores a man could ask for. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93754-7-reasons-i-switched-to-google-s-chrome?source=feed#comment-245169 245169
old school os... machine language up...

we still need both but browswer as OS is becoming more and more important... and nearly all that matters for some web stuff...

]]> Thu, 04 Sep 2008 05:47:33 -0400
old school os... machine language up...

we still need both but browswer as OS is becoming more and more important... and nearly all that matters for some web stuff...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87181-steve-jobs-honesty-is-the-best-policy?source=feed#comment-215716 215716
Henceforth, he SEC should require that quarterly reports fully disclose every companies type 5 shareholder's medical records. Most importantly, in this brave new world we have access to every document held by the person in question's health insurance agency ( unless the shareholder gets health insurance from the company in question, in which case a the SEC will step in an act as unbiased measure of health ) .

Think of the charts ! AAPL PE to Steve Jobs HGL has just broke out of its 200 MDA ...BUY BUY BUY... but look at the T-cells ]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 12:46:51 -0400
Henceforth, he SEC should require that quarterly reports fully disclose every companies type 5 shareholder's medical records. Most importantly, in this brave new world we have access to every document held by the person in question's health insurance agency ( unless the shareholder gets health insurance from the company in question, in which case a the SEC will step in an act as unbiased measure of health ) .

Think of the charts ! AAPL PE to Steve Jobs HGL has just broke out of its 200 MDA ...BUY BUY BUY... but look at the T-cells ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85917-be-wary-of-high-dividend-yields?source=feed#comment-210769 210769
Does anyone know of any documented trends of dividend stocks becoming popular during recessions. I seem to keep seeing more and more articles, I would guess that managers start looking for dividends when growth is dead. ]]> Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:20:01 -0400
Does anyone know of any documented trends of dividend stocks becoming popular during recessions. I seem to keep seeing more and more articles, I would guess that managers start looking for dividends when growth is dead. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85248-why-i-m-committed-to-the-ultrashort-financials-etf?source=feed#comment-207039 207039
This is a trader driven event. It is not a systemic event.
Agreed, but if this is the case why do you keep talking about BAC's fundamentals as if they really matter here ? SKF is clearly in a speculative "bull" phase. May be a good short term play, but how much lower can BAC and company go ?

We all know the entire herd can't feed at this trough, especially as it is herd...err.....trader driven ... right ?

]]> Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:31:33 -0400
This is a trader driven event. It is not a systemic event.
Agreed, but if this is the case why do you keep talking about BAC's fundamentals as if they really matter here ? SKF is clearly in a speculative "bull" phase. May be a good short term play, but how much lower can BAC and company go ?

We all know the entire herd can't feed at this trough, especially as it is herd...err.....trader driven ... right ?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83587-bofa-left-to-clean-up-countrywide-s-mess?source=feed#comment-197383 197383
Again I hope I am right because there doesn't seem to be a clear way of knowing what BAC is getting into. Maybe they are getting an incredibly good deal, or maybe untold debt ?

BAC is getting hammered right now and I am betting that they are in a better situation than JP , CITT due to less exposure ergo the sector is just very unpopular right now so BAC might be a very good deal for the long-term investory. ]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 13:45:00 -0400
Again I hope I am right because there doesn't seem to be a clear way of knowing what BAC is getting into. Maybe they are getting an incredibly good deal, or maybe untold debt ?

BAC is getting hammered right now and I am betting that they are in a better situation than JP , CITT due to less exposure ergo the sector is just very unpopular right now so BAC might be a very good deal for the long-term investory. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73652-apple-blows-through-estimates?source=feed#comment-155535 155535
Not sure what a fair P/E for this stock is, but I really don't see anyone slowing down this train.

What other company puts out the combination of highest quality software /hardware ? No one.

Dell ? MSFT ? RIMM ? I'm sorry I just don't see how Jobs and co can lose at this point. The iphone will just get better, and OSX is already a light year ahead of the Vista debacle. There is now very little reason to not buy a mac computer as you can get ALOT of bang for your buck.

The sky is the limit with this company. They haven't even really begun to take a huge market share in the Home PC market or the corporate market. Eventually there will be a tipping point when most of your friends have and are using macs and then corporate will follow. AAPL should then be able to have a MSFT stranglehold on the market, except this company will be peddling you the software and hardware out of their own stores - O and would you like a song and movie with that ?

Seriously , is there anything this company can't make ? As ridiculous as is sounds GOOG is the only company I worry about, but their ecosystem is about as disentangled from AAPLs as possible at the moment. ( most likely due to Mr. Schmidt) ( checked your iGoogle page from your iPhone yet ? ) ]]> Wed, 23 Apr 2008 18:10:59 -0400
Not sure what a fair P/E for this stock is, but I really don't see anyone slowing down this train.

What other company puts out the combination of highest quality software /hardware ? No one.

Dell ? MSFT ? RIMM ? I'm sorry I just don't see how Jobs and co can lose at this point. The iphone will just get better, and OSX is already a light year ahead of the Vista debacle. There is now very little reason to not buy a mac computer as you can get ALOT of bang for your buck.

The sky is the limit with this company. They haven't even really begun to take a huge market share in the Home PC market or the corporate market. Eventually there will be a tipping point when most of your friends have and are using macs and then corporate will follow. AAPL should then be able to have a MSFT stranglehold on the market, except this company will be peddling you the software and hardware out of their own stores - O and would you like a song and movie with that ?

Seriously , is there anything this company can't make ? As ridiculous as is sounds GOOG is the only company I worry about, but their ecosystem is about as disentangled from AAPLs as possible at the moment. ( most likely due to Mr. Schmidt) ( checked your iGoogle page from your iPhone yet ? ) ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72015-microsoft-s-windows-is-a-glacier-that-won-t-melt-fast?source=feed#comment-149179 149179 Fri, 11 Apr 2008 15:42:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72012-does-the-world-need-rich-venture-capitalists?source=feed#comment-149176 149176 Fri, 11 Apr 2008 15:41:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68681-what-s-behind-the-dollar-s-decline?source=feed#comment-127326 127326 Sun, 16 Mar 2008 20:01:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68548-global-oil-shock-rattles-world-stock-markets?source=feed#comment-126406 126406
Synopsis of what I think is the "elephant in the room" when many economists speak of the current "crisis" . No one seems to disagree that we are running out of oil, but then no one wants to discuss the major implications for the global economy.

Tons of trading ideas in here as well, longs and shorts.

I think nuclear power is the only way out of this mess.]]> Fri, 14 Mar 2008 09:15:26 -0400
Synopsis of what I think is the "elephant in the room" when many economists speak of the current "crisis" . No one seems to disagree that we are running out of oil, but then no one wants to discuss the major implications for the global economy.

Tons of trading ideas in here as well, longs and shorts.

I think nuclear power is the only way out of this mess.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68243-goldman-s-200-oil-call-and-the-hurricane-premium-theory?source=feed#comment-125622 125622
I am definitely bullish on oil, but I fear it's gains are at the direct expense of economy/dollar ( unless the fed miraculously stops behaving so masochistically )

What about buying oil sand trusts with the loon... havent made that trade but was def an idea. You get the currency moves + high yield + oil price moves ... seems pretty good to me.]]> Wed, 12 Mar 2008 13:45:21 -0400
I am definitely bullish on oil, but I fear it's gains are at the direct expense of economy/dollar ( unless the fed miraculously stops behaving so masochistically )

What about buying oil sand trusts with the loon... havent made that trade but was def an idea. You get the currency moves + high yield + oil price moves ... seems pretty good to me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65908-a-beautiful-mind-microsoft-over-google?source=feed#comment-125621 125621 my brain just exploded.

"Microsoft aspires to develop a set of user interface tools that will revolutionize the Internet in much the same way that Windows revolutionized personal computing"

Have your heard of ANDROID, or the iPhone or its SDK ?

Google and Apple are miles ahead of MS in this exact space. The fact that we are talking about microsoft "aspiring" to develop these technologies should be reason enough to stick a fork in them.

This has been GOOGs business model from day one. Unless there is reason to believe to that MS can develop an Iphone or search engine infrastructure that rivals GOOG, then they simply will not ever catch them.

They are already playing catch up in the most ruthless of sectors where one shift in technology can kill you. Remind the last product that MS produced that wasn't a joke.

and if you say Xbox 360, I will gladly ask you how much money the Xbox has made for MS. ]]> Wed, 12 Mar 2008 13:36:44 -0400 my brain just exploded.

"Microsoft aspires to develop a set of user interface tools that will revolutionize the Internet in much the same way that Windows revolutionized personal computing"

Have your heard of ANDROID, or the iPhone or its SDK ?

Google and Apple are miles ahead of MS in this exact space. The fact that we are talking about microsoft "aspiring" to develop these technologies should be reason enough to stick a fork in them.

This has been GOOGs business model from day one. Unless there is reason to believe to that MS can develop an Iphone or search engine infrastructure that rivals GOOG, then they simply will not ever catch them.

They are already playing catch up in the most ruthless of sectors where one shift in technology can kill you. Remind the last product that MS produced that wasn't a joke.

and if you say Xbox 360, I will gladly ask you how much money the Xbox has made for MS. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68144-get-long-sp500-when-vix-hits-30?source=feed#comment-125617 125617
I would agree with bumbie, this idea makes alot more sense with if the VIX pops over 35.

Of course, if you want to make a contrarian play based on VIX data, why not just trade the VIX or options on it ?

Currently I have VIX straddles at 25 that don't expire until August. I think this is a great way to play to uncertainty/fear that already here and will most likely increase.

The SP moves much more slowly , and is increasingly growing weary of popping back up.

We know that the VIX oscillates like hell before and at the beginning of major recessions ( the bigger the recession the more oscillation ) ...

why expose yourself to the risk of having no near/long term recession, when you could simply make $$$ regardless of which way the VIX moves...

Warren Buffet's annual letter even stated that the market could get very ugly very quickly. There are so many house of cards that could collapse right now, that I could not in good conscience recommend getting long much of anything right now.

People are already discussion $200 oil !?! , we haven't had a hurricane in what 2-3 years ( anybody know what in the hell that is about ? ) and if the petrodollar every falls apart...well... happy VIX day to me.

take home point:

It won't take much at all for the VIX to hit 35, 30 is too easy right now.
Even your graph shows getting long the SP at 11/12/07 might not have proved profitable. The trade would have required oracle like timing.

I really like playing the VIX right now, just not in this way.

]]> Wed, 12 Mar 2008 13:28:48 -0400
I would agree with bumbie, this idea makes alot more sense with if the VIX pops over 35.

Of course, if you want to make a contrarian play based on VIX data, why not just trade the VIX or options on it ?

Currently I have VIX straddles at 25 that don't expire until August. I think this is a great way to play to uncertainty/fear that already here and will most likely increase.

The SP moves much more slowly , and is increasingly growing weary of popping back up.

We know that the VIX oscillates like hell before and at the beginning of major recessions ( the bigger the recession the more oscillation ) ...

why expose yourself to the risk of having no near/long term recession, when you could simply make $$$ regardless of which way the VIX moves...

Warren Buffet's annual letter even stated that the market could get very ugly very quickly. There are so many house of cards that could collapse right now, that I could not in good conscience recommend getting long much of anything right now.

People are already discussion $200 oil !?! , we haven't had a hurricane in what 2-3 years ( anybody know what in the hell that is about ? ) and if the petrodollar every falls apart...well... happy VIX day to me.

take home point:

It won't take much at all for the VIX to hit 35, 30 is too easy right now.
Even your graph shows getting long the SP at 11/12/07 might not have proved profitable. The trade would have required oracle like timing.

I really like playing the VIX right now, just not in this way.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67717-will-the-iphone-become-the-first-true-mobile-internet-device?source=feed#comment-124650 124650 "but for now, I don't see the cost-benefits in writing native iPhone apps or porting existing enterprise apps to iPhone. Maybe never."

&

"The iPhone can become the MID for business, and start to replace the PC outright for a significant portion of workers. "

I thiiinnnkkk I agree with your general point...

and in answer to your headline question:
"Will the iPhone Become the First True Mobile Internet Device?"

I say, 99% sure... YES.

and it's not really that I know what a "true mobile internet device" is really, but I know that the iPhone is already much more capable than any other smartphone and will only continue to accelerate it's lead with the SDK/iFund etc.
My point is: I simply expect the tech on this thing to grow so fast we shouldn't expect to be able to imagine what we will see even 0.5 -1 year out.

IMHO Jobs is doing just about everything right with the iPhone, the only major whole I can find is lack of Flash...

( I vaguely understand it's a processor/power issue at heart, but jesus...Steve.... no Flash!?!?... ).
OF course this can worked around in most cases...( see: google and youtube ) but why give the developers this headache when so many internet ( ergo mobile ) apps/games/etc have already been built with flash... ( check out finance.google.com and play with their charts w/ news flags for an example of a how mindboggling fast a flash app can be whilst delivering a nearly inconcievable amount of information... think about it... you can freely pinch and squeeze the time scale of these charts...and hey free google NEWS integration ( information overload...just think about all the info you are gettting and how fast it is... ) ) ....

Ok... I am nesting parenthesis...time to lay off the ritalin / venti macchiatos...

sorry for the blabbering... but this is a blag-o-bloob on the intertubes afterall...

o and besides the flash the only thing I "worry" about with the iPhone... how will Android compete with this ? I mean we know schmidt is on both boards ( obviously more vested interest in AAPL > GOOG ) but, have they agreed to "stay of each other's lawns ? " I cannot completely imagine how this deal might work, GOOG has the servers and software... and AAPL has the hardware/software ...

I can't help but think that ANDROID could easily begin eating into the iphone market share ( im thinking 2 years outish.. in an iphone dominated world ) with very cheap and rich hardware. I don't doubt that the iPhone will be able to continue to lead in "richness/features/etc... , but I simply can't imagine a very cheap open-source "android" based phone that woulnd't seem more attractive to someone who can shell out $500/$400 for a phone.

.... now I am thinking that they are both ultimately UNIX devices so it may not really matter in the end...idk... unfortunately for all but the VERY MOST savvy of us; GOOG & AAPL know ALOT more than we do..

disclosure...I am long a bum's amount of AAPL and GOOG and in general more biased from being a "fan" in both of their favors than a being a "shareholder" ( though... I need to use all this dopamine to geek out on currencies because I'm sure 1 share of GOOG = .75 euros by now and I recently sold off alot of $$$ to travel... time to buy the EURO ? .... or is at a topish ...idk ....idk..... )


]]> Mon, 10 Mar 2008 10:30:58 -0400 "but for now, I don't see the cost-benefits in writing native iPhone apps or porting existing enterprise apps to iPhone. Maybe never."

&

"The iPhone can become the MID for business, and start to replace the PC outright for a significant portion of workers. "

I thiiinnnkkk I agree with your general point...

and in answer to your headline question:
"Will the iPhone Become the First True Mobile Internet Device?"

I say, 99% sure... YES.

and it's not really that I know what a "true mobile internet device" is really, but I know that the iPhone is already much more capable than any other smartphone and will only continue to accelerate it's lead with the SDK/iFund etc.
My point is: I simply expect the tech on this thing to grow so fast we shouldn't expect to be able to imagine what we will see even 0.5 -1 year out.

IMHO Jobs is doing just about everything right with the iPhone, the only major whole I can find is lack of Flash...

( I vaguely understand it's a processor/power issue at heart, but jesus...Steve.... no Flash!?!?... ).
OF course this can worked around in most cases...( see: google and youtube ) but why give the developers this headache when so many internet ( ergo mobile ) apps/games/etc have already been built with flash... ( check out finance.google.com and play with their charts w/ news flags for an example of a how mindboggling fast a flash app can be whilst delivering a nearly inconcievable amount of information... think about it... you can freely pinch and squeeze the time scale of these charts...and hey free google NEWS integration ( information overload...just think about all the info you are gettting and how fast it is... ) ) ....

Ok... I am nesting parenthesis...time to lay off the ritalin / venti macchiatos...

sorry for the blabbering... but this is a blag-o-bloob on the intertubes afterall...

o and besides the flash the only thing I "worry" about with the iPhone... how will Android compete with this ? I mean we know schmidt is on both boards ( obviously more vested interest in AAPL > GOOG ) but, have they agreed to "stay of each other's lawns ? " I cannot completely imagine how this deal might work, GOOG has the servers and software... and AAPL has the hardware/software ...

I can't help but think that ANDROID could easily begin eating into the iphone market share ( im thinking 2 years outish.. in an iphone dominated world ) with very cheap and rich hardware. I don't doubt that the iPhone will be able to continue to lead in "richness/features/etc... , but I simply can't imagine a very cheap open-source "android" based phone that woulnd't seem more attractive to someone who can shell out $500/$400 for a phone.

.... now I am thinking that they are both ultimately UNIX devices so it may not really matter in the end...idk... unfortunately for all but the VERY MOST savvy of us; GOOG & AAPL know ALOT more than we do..

disclosure...I am long a bum's amount of AAPL and GOOG and in general more biased from being a "fan" in both of their favors than a being a "shareholder" ( though... I need to use all this dopamine to geek out on currencies because I'm sure 1 share of GOOG = .75 euros by now and I recently sold off alot of $$$ to travel... time to buy the EURO ? .... or is at a topish ...idk ....idk..... )


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67556-apple-and-rim-battle-for-the-corporate-mobile-market?source=feed#comment-124413 124413
Exactly. I mean what's stopping apple from putting an iSight camera on this thing in 2 years time ? This is just one 2-sec example. The iPhone is clearly the "richest" AND easiest to develop for.]]> Sun, 09 Mar 2008 18:27:16 -0400
Exactly. I mean what's stopping apple from putting an iSight camera on this thing in 2 years time ? This is just one 2-sec example. The iPhone is clearly the "richest" AND easiest to develop for.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67556-apple-and-rim-battle-for-the-corporate-mobile-market?source=feed#comment-124411 124411 PALM) has about 9% (via Canalys)). "

Wrong. With the SDK, Apple will soon own this market sans MS/(hugecap/conglomera... buyout.

Here's a concrete prediction:
Either Apple is the clear market share gorilla in 2 years time or we will have begun speculating as to how much RIMM/PALM will cost.]]> Sun, 09 Mar 2008 18:25:03 -0400 PALM) has about 9% (via Canalys)). "

Wrong. With the SDK, Apple will soon own this market sans MS/(hugecap/conglomera... buyout.

Here's a concrete prediction:
Either Apple is the clear market share gorilla in 2 years time or we will have begun speculating as to how much RIMM/PALM will cost.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67554-opening-up-has-microsoft-saved-itself-or-shot-itself-in-the-foot?source=feed#comment-124401 124401 Sun, 09 Mar 2008 17:58:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67400-the-four-horsemen-of-tech-are-not-equal?source=feed#comment-123583 123583 Fri, 07 Mar 2008 11:29:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67585-apple-s-iphone-2-0-bigger-than-the-personal-computer?source=feed#comment-123576 123576 One that fits into your pocket and connects to the internet with a real browser in about 0.5 seconds.

"I've just read another article on Seeking Alpha that says SDK can only run one application at a time."

um....seriously ?.... you are right, right now my 36 core laptop is running an app on each of its cores, it really sucked when we are using 1 and 2 core computers....wait...we still do.

Have you used this device ? Do you understand how the internet works ? Give one scenario where ANY smartphone will be able to do ONE thing the iphone won't. ( note: I'm not even asking for something better, just something )

and just for fun, please inform me of ANY "mobile" device that can do what the iPhone can't/won't be able to. You are going to either have to start bringing up laptops or a PSP in my mind, both are which are fairly irrelevant to the space that Iphone is going to simply create.

" if you have to ask what the Iphone is, you'll never know " ]]> Fri, 07 Mar 2008 11:25:14 -0500 One that fits into your pocket and connects to the internet with a real browser in about 0.5 seconds.

"I've just read another article on Seeking Alpha that says SDK can only run one application at a time."

um....seriously ?.... you are right, right now my 36 core laptop is running an app on each of its cores, it really sucked when we are using 1 and 2 core computers....wait...we still do.

Have you used this device ? Do you understand how the internet works ? Give one scenario where ANY smartphone will be able to do ONE thing the iphone won't. ( note: I'm not even asking for something better, just something )

and just for fun, please inform me of ANY "mobile" device that can do what the iPhone can't/won't be able to. You are going to either have to start bringing up laptops or a PSP in my mind, both are which are fairly irrelevant to the space that Iphone is going to simply create.

" if you have to ask what the Iphone is, you'll never know " ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67585-apple-s-iphone-2-0-bigger-than-the-personal-computer?source=feed#comment-123568 123568
"As the iPhone platform expands it should dominate the mobile market like windows dominates the desk top. As windows has made little impact in the mobile community (you have to operate it with a stylus - which hand are you using to drive) due to some boneheads idea of mobile being sitting in Starbucks."

exactly, who will kill the iphone now ? No one.

"When the latest Xserve was announced we did a feature for feature comparison with an HP server and the hP server was almost twice as much as the Apple Xserve."

"With the latest news out of Cupertino, the iPhone is about to blow up, making the iPod fenom look like a hobby."

Again, yes! The ipod will soon seem like a distant memory... ITS A CLOSED DEVICE. Investors need to get this. The iphone is not only a friggin' cell phone/computer/ipod/vi... games/whatever , but it's out of the box couldn't be easier wireless in your pocket.
The business possibilities of a wireless computer in your pocket ( that works ) are completely mind blowing. Not only can no other company develop hardware like this, but Apple just dropped an H-bomb in this space in the form of a developers wet dream. People are developing as we speak, and ALL of these apps will seamlessly port to any apple products ( which are extremely price competitive now) . The good developers will quickly find themselves rock stars that could be possibly flush with cash as their products are instantly available to all iphone users and apple will find itself with armies of developers and consumers addicted to their iphones.

Was Microsoft monopolizing the desktop a big deal ? What do you think will happen when Apple/google owns everypiece of software that you have become accustomed to having in your pocket 24/7 ?
Repeat: Apple is going to allow anyone to sell/show/give you whatever you want, instantly, in your pocket, and they will own all of it.
And you can also quickly forget about AT&T , why would I care to even pay for cellular when I could VOIP everyone with my Iphone ?
As for Microsoft, if Ballmer didn't shit his pants yesterday, he should be fired. How are they going to compete ? Give us a zunephone with vista development ? They apparently can't even build an operating system anymore.

"In fact Windows isn't even UNIX-based yet; the code base is likely to deteriorate over time, as we saw with Vista, rather than progress."

Right on the money, the fact that MS is still pushing DOS-based software is nearly delusional to me at this point. They have all but lost this game already ( well, after yesterday they should REALLY just go to UNIX, give it up )

Again, Microsoft is all but dead now, MS shareholders should demand a CEO that knows computers, Gates surely did, Ballmer doesn't seem to get it; at all.

O and what if google wins any spectrum ? I'm pretty sure we could just all use our iphones to hop right on and forget about their cell companies. I might even forget about my laptop.

Simple geopolitics are also playing a huge factor in this rape and pillaging of MS. Who's in the same exact area ? Apple, Google, Stanford, Genetech. O and I heard it's also the epicenter for VCs, biotech and tech startups. Microsoft is in Seattle and all the aforementioned companies are becoming no less than a bay-area hydra. Again, how can Microsoft possibly win now ?

Meh... that will never happen, its not like google and apple share and board members or google has been obviously developing Iphone apps from the beginning of this venture. That scenario wouldn't make any sense for either companies business models either. Google is definitely not pushing a free online desktop in the form of "iGoogle", they don't have ANOTHER UNIX-based SDK called android that is completely aimed at mobile computing as well. Ballmer should be sleeping soundly because Microsoft has the right hardware, the right software, server farms across the country, and the spectrum. Google/Apple aren't thinking any of these things, they are focused on the wired world.

Ok...Im done... but if you don't get this... as a friend I must tell you, you don't get this space... don't invest in this sector....

disclosure: I own a crappy amount of apple and google, though I just painfully sold some apple yesterday to fund a trip to europe ( do they still accept USD over there or are dollars just valued against toilet paper brands in the grocery stores? ).

I personally would let this recession bleed for a bit , then start moving into Apple once the fed cutting/ panic seems to have finally stopped. As historic as this was, I just don't think the stock can fight this recession. AAPL has resistance @ 120 and 100. Longterm, I would say it's a screaming buy at anything under 100, but I am simply not sure how bad this recession is going to be, so a buy @ 98 might leave you with a stock that can't break 100 for the next few years, or even worse a stock that hovers around 70, dipping into the 50's and 90's at times... so yea , short something else and buy energy/commodities....... into apple later and slowly ( as you think we are emerging out of this )

errr.... I should have a blog or something.... how many of you guys actually make real money ? I wonder who the poorest person commenting on this site is ?]]> Fri, 07 Mar 2008 11:16:36 -0500
"As the iPhone platform expands it should dominate the mobile market like windows dominates the desk top. As windows has made little impact in the mobile community (you have to operate it with a stylus - which hand are you using to drive) due to some boneheads idea of mobile being sitting in Starbucks."

exactly, who will kill the iphone now ? No one.

"When the latest Xserve was announced we did a feature for feature comparison with an HP server and the hP server was almost twice as much as the Apple Xserve."

"With the latest news out of Cupertino, the iPhone is about to blow up, making the iPod fenom look like a hobby."

Again, yes! The ipod will soon seem like a distant memory... ITS A CLOSED DEVICE. Investors need to get this. The iphone is not only a friggin' cell phone/computer/ipod/vi... games/whatever , but it's out of the box couldn't be easier wireless in your pocket.
The business possibilities of a wireless computer in your pocket ( that works ) are completely mind blowing. Not only can no other company develop hardware like this, but Apple just dropped an H-bomb in this space in the form of a developers wet dream. People are developing as we speak, and ALL of these apps will seamlessly port to any apple products ( which are extremely price competitive now) . The good developers will quickly find themselves rock stars that could be possibly flush with cash as their products are instantly available to all iphone users and apple will find itself with armies of developers and consumers addicted to their iphones.

Was Microsoft monopolizing the desktop a big deal ? What do you think will happen when Apple/google owns everypiece of software that you have become accustomed to having in your pocket 24/7 ?
Repeat: Apple is going to allow anyone to sell/show/give you whatever you want, instantly, in your pocket, and they will own all of it.
And you can also quickly forget about AT&T , why would I care to even pay for cellular when I could VOIP everyone with my Iphone ?
As for Microsoft, if Ballmer didn't shit his pants yesterday, he should be fired. How are they going to compete ? Give us a zunephone with vista development ? They apparently can't even build an operating system anymore.

"In fact Windows isn't even UNIX-based yet; the code base is likely to deteriorate over time, as we saw with Vista, rather than progress."

Right on the money, the fact that MS is still pushing DOS-based software is nearly delusional to me at this point. They have all but lost this game already ( well, after yesterday they should REALLY just go to UNIX, give it up )

Again, Microsoft is all but dead now, MS shareholders should demand a CEO that knows computers, Gates surely did, Ballmer doesn't seem to get it; at all.

O and what if google wins any spectrum ? I'm pretty sure we could just all use our iphones to hop right on and forget about their cell companies. I might even forget about my laptop.

Simple geopolitics are also playing a huge factor in this rape and pillaging of MS. Who's in the same exact area ? Apple, Google, Stanford, Genetech. O and I heard it's also the epicenter for VCs, biotech and tech startups. Microsoft is in Seattle and all the aforementioned companies are becoming no less than a bay-area hydra. Again, how can Microsoft possibly win now ?

Meh... that will never happen, its not like google and apple share and board members or google has been obviously developing Iphone apps from the beginning of this venture. That scenario wouldn't make any sense for either companies business models either. Google is definitely not pushing a free online desktop in the form of "iGoogle", they don't have ANOTHER UNIX-based SDK called android that is completely aimed at mobile computing as well. Ballmer should be sleeping soundly because Microsoft has the right hardware, the right software, server farms across the country, and the spectrum. Google/Apple aren't thinking any of these things, they are focused on the wired world.

Ok...Im done... but if you don't get this... as a friend I must tell you, you don't get this space... don't invest in this sector....

disclosure: I own a crappy amount of apple and google, though I just painfully sold some apple yesterday to fund a trip to europe ( do they still accept USD over there or are dollars just valued against toilet paper brands in the grocery stores? ).

I personally would let this recession bleed for a bit , then start moving into Apple once the fed cutting/ panic seems to have finally stopped. As historic as this was, I just don't think the stock can fight this recession. AAPL has resistance @ 120 and 100. Longterm, I would say it's a screaming buy at anything under 100, but I am simply not sure how bad this recession is going to be, so a buy @ 98 might leave you with a stock that can't break 100 for the next few years, or even worse a stock that hovers around 70, dipping into the 50's and 90's at times... so yea , short something else and buy energy/commodities....... into apple later and slowly ( as you think we are emerging out of this )

errr.... I should have a blog or something.... how many of you guys actually make real money ? I wonder who the poorest person commenting on this site is ?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67585-apple-s-iphone-2-0-bigger-than-the-personal-computer?source=feed#comment-123518 123518
"I highly recommend you watch the video yourself and not allow 3rd parties to interpret this monumental event."

It's right here:
events.apple.com.edges...

IMHO: this is just about the biggest apple announcement I have heard... well ever. ( i was thinking intel chips was big, but it just does not compare to this ).

I am long AAPL ... but its only worth like 2 Euros now...]]> Fri, 07 Mar 2008 10:26:43 -0500
"I highly recommend you watch the video yourself and not allow 3rd parties to interpret this monumental event."

It's right here:
events.apple.com.edges...

IMHO: this is just about the biggest apple announcement I have heard... well ever. ( i was thinking intel chips was big, but it just does not compare to this ).

I am long AAPL ... but its only worth like 2 Euros now...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67639-8-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-now?source=feed#comment-123505 123505
"1. WIDgets. With iPhone SDK launch today (3/6), AAPL further extended its lead in the emerging WIDget (Wireless Internet Devices: GPS, email, TV/video, social) market. Making media content portable is a 200mm unit (annual) market; making phones portable is over a 1bn unit market. WIDgets is somewhere in between."

I agree with this general idea, but the iPhone SDK is MUCH more important than the author would have us believe. The SDK appears to be as identical as possible ( streamlined ) to the one already used by mac developers.
The iPhone SDK is Apples first step in taking over the business/enterprise market. Developers are already foaming at the mouth to program on this touch based device, and Apple is encouraging this full force with both an extremely streamlined store for developers to sell their projects, but an $100M ifund to own...err...encourage the startups that succeed on the iPhone.

So what's so historic about all these developers working on apps for a phone ?

ALL of these apps will easily be ported to WHATEVER other mobile/wireless/touch devices apple can imagine. The macbook air already uses many "gestures" , I can all but guarantee we will eventually see a touchscreen tablet, etc. So Mr. Jobs has somewhat clandestinely set the stage for an army of developers to make not only games/entertainment/so... apps/ but many many business /productivity apps as well.

Once Mr. Jobs has enough of the upper crust throwing out their blackberry's in favor of the iphone, he will move into the desktops ( if they still need them ) of these business and then their servers etc. With the iPhone SDK , the iphone will become so painfully robust with apps that the only people holding on to blackberry's will be those that can't afford to switch, those that are too cheap, those that are stubborn, and finally those that still prefer the keyboard. This is most likely not going to a thriving demographic of "smartphone" users.

So, we have 1,000's of working apps being developed for a computer that will sit in the pocket of businessmen. Once they become accustomed to the interface, do you think they will be more likely to ask their IT department about "switching" ? I think it is much more likely.

In short and IMHO:
The Iphone SDK was the business equivalent of Apple throwing a bunker buster into the enterprise space. Blackberry will be a easy battle in this space, Microsoft is the real "challenge". Apple will be able to use the Iphone to push their products, especially computers and operating system, to enterprise in a very aggressive way for the first time. Microsoft should watch their back, because I frankly don't know how they would stop this. I still stand by my view that Ballmer just does not know what he is doing anymore.

disclosure: I am a college bum that owns a measly amount of apple shares...]]> Fri, 07 Mar 2008 10:16:12 -0500
"1. WIDgets. With iPhone SDK launch today (3/6), AAPL further extended its lead in the emerging WIDget (Wireless Internet Devices: GPS, email, TV/video, social) market. Making media content portable is a 200mm unit (annual) market; making phones portable is over a 1bn unit market. WIDgets is somewhere in between."

I agree with this general idea, but the iPhone SDK is MUCH more important than the author would have us believe. The SDK appears to be as identical as possible ( streamlined ) to the one already used by mac developers.
The iPhone SDK is Apples first step in taking over the business/enterprise market. Developers are already foaming at the mouth to program on this touch based device, and Apple is encouraging this full force with both an extremely streamlined store for developers to sell their projects, but an $100M ifund to own...err...encourage the startups that succeed on the iPhone.

So what's so historic about all these developers working on apps for a phone ?

ALL of these apps will easily be ported to WHATEVER other mobile/wireless/touch devices apple can imagine. The macbook air already uses many "gestures" , I can all but guarantee we will eventually see a touchscreen tablet, etc. So Mr. Jobs has somewhat clandestinely set the stage for an army of developers to make not only games/entertainment/so... apps/ but many many business /productivity apps as well.

Once Mr. Jobs has enough of the upper crust throwing out their blackberry's in favor of the iphone, he will move into the desktops ( if they still need them ) of these business and then their servers etc. With the iPhone SDK , the iphone will become so painfully robust with apps that the only people holding on to blackberry's will be those that can't afford to switch, those that are too cheap, those that are stubborn, and finally those that still prefer the keyboard. This is most likely not going to a thriving demographic of "smartphone" users.

So, we have 1,000's of working apps being developed for a computer that will sit in the pocket of businessmen. Once they become accustomed to the interface, do you think they will be more likely to ask their IT department about "switching" ? I think it is much more likely.

In short and IMHO:
The Iphone SDK was the business equivalent of Apple throwing a bunker buster into the enterprise space. Blackberry will be a easy battle in this space, Microsoft is the real "challenge". Apple will be able to use the Iphone to push their products, especially computers and operating system, to enterprise in a very aggressive way for the first time. Microsoft should watch their back, because I frankly don't know how they would stop this. I still stand by my view that Ballmer just does not know what he is doing anymore.

disclosure: I am a college bum that owns a measly amount of apple shares...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65319-a-short-comment-on-shorting?source=feed#comment-117607 117607
If your portfolio is driving you nuts, you are doing it wrong!

I have being feeling very "settled" as of late. I sold off a good bit of stock when the fed started "injecting liquidity" and have recently started to straddle the VIX , so i'm longer cash now and have a small bet on GLD and a small bet on the volatility of volatility. I'm feeling little stress...]]> Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:14:07 -0500
If your portfolio is driving you nuts, you are doing it wrong!

I have being feeling very "settled" as of late. I sold off a good bit of stock when the fed started "injecting liquidity" and have recently started to straddle the VIX , so i'm longer cash now and have a small bet on GLD and a small bet on the volatility of volatility. I'm feeling little stress...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64853-poor-people-use-yahoo-better-off-use-google?source=feed#comment-116785 116785 headline.
chart.
succinct analysis.

that's how you move information!]]> Sun, 17 Feb 2008 14:39:43 -0500 headline.
chart.
succinct analysis.

that's how you move information!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64005-apple-on-an-innovation-treadmill?source=feed#comment-115727 115727
Ok, yes I am def an apple fan, but I would also like to think I bought the stock because they, along w/ google will continue to eat Microsoft. Not just because I think the hardware is better.
( remember whose on both company's board of directors )

"Hence the entire foundation of a company is hinging on a single individual who has an aversion towards building an ecosystem around Apple products. You have to compare this strategy against Microsoft which has built a strong channel partnership and ecosystem around Windows software"

Sorry, dead wrong here. Jobs does control apple very tightly, but they are also fairly strategic with Google for obvious reasons. Steve Jobs has all but said at various macworlds that, yes, he too ( like any good CEO ) wants Apple to dominate every piece of technology you own.
If you need any evidence, just ask yourself why Apple moved to Intel Chips and all but encourages its users to run windows along with Leopard, and really doesn't care how many times you install their operating system.
Have you seen/used the new features in Leopard ? They are alot of things that are potentially very damaging to MCRST control of the business space and all but killing the need for your local networking IT man, because I hate to break it to you, but you aren't needed if the software always works and remains very simple to use. No more frustrated fun calls from the secretary.

Jobs hasn't been loud about it yet, but remember we are only talking about OSX 10.5 here, not 11.0.
What do you think all of the one-click screen/file sharing features are for ? Graphic designers and hipsters ? I don't think so. Once small business find out how easy apple makes networking they will be wondering why they ever used windows in the first place. Do you not think this will propagate into bigger and bigger businesses as more and more people use apple computers?

But, besides this , the reason you are dead wrong is that Microsoft got where it was because THEIR strategy hinged on a single individual named Bill Gates and he was very good and they made alot of money.

Now he is gone and Mr. Ballmer seems determined to run the company into the ground.
It's pretty clear he has no idea what to do, all he knows is that Microsoft is going to be the industry's " first n-trick pony " , well that sounds nice and profitable, but I am pretty sure you have to fight an n-front war to do that.

Is the X-box 360 beating Nintendo ? ( the first X-box was a loss-leader...) How is the Zune doing ? Is Microsoft gaining any ground against Google ? They can't even buy a small dying search engine - Yahoo. Do I need to mention Vista ?
Google bought Youtube for what 1 billion ?... I think that is working out quite well for them. Google seems to have a near monopoly on this whole internet thing anyway, why else would Microsoft be so desperate to buy Yahoo? They could and should use that cash to build server farms/infrastructure and hire better engineers.

I understand that in terms of cash Microsoft may still be the 800-lb gorilla, but a fool and his money are soon parted ( even that much ), It seems to me the current CEO is a bit of a desperate fool, especially if he thinks he can even afford to fight an "n-front" war in the technology space. Especially when Google and Apple are involved. Nevermind ALL the other startups and the nature of the business in general, Microsoft can't exactly just go and kill netscape like they did before ( also now working with google BTW ...ever heard of firefox or seen their "homepage" ? )

Microsoft's past strategy worked because the internet was not nearly as important as it used to be and Gates knew exactly what he was doing, even when he did have to rely on DOS ( UNIX IS BETTER/MORE MODERN/BUILT FOR MULTIPLE USERS/ ETC... anyone willing to argue with that ? )

I don't think Microsoft even understands how to defeat google, let alone do it. don't forget geo-politics either... If you were a tech company would you rather be in the bay area or seattle ?



]]> Mon, 11 Feb 2008 15:07:09 -0500
Ok, yes I am def an apple fan, but I would also like to think I bought the stock because they, along w/ google will continue to eat Microsoft. Not just because I think the hardware is better.
( remember whose on both company's board of directors )

"Hence the entire foundation of a company is hinging on a single individual who has an aversion towards building an ecosystem around Apple products. You have to compare this strategy against Microsoft which has built a strong channel partnership and ecosystem around Windows software"

Sorry, dead wrong here. Jobs does control apple very tightly, but they are also fairly strategic with Google for obvious reasons. Steve Jobs has all but said at various macworlds that, yes, he too ( like any good CEO ) wants Apple to dominate every piece of technology you own.
If you need any evidence, just ask yourself why Apple moved to Intel Chips and all but encourages its users to run windows along with Leopard, and really doesn't care how many times you install their operating system.
Have you seen/used the new features in Leopard ? They are alot of things that are potentially very damaging to MCRST control of the business space and all but killing the need for your local networking IT man, because I hate to break it to you, but you aren't needed if the software always works and remains very simple to use. No more frustrated fun calls from the secretary.

Jobs hasn't been loud about it yet, but remember we are only talking about OSX 10.5 here, not 11.0.
What do you think all of the one-click screen/file sharing features are for ? Graphic designers and hipsters ? I don't think so. Once small business find out how easy apple makes networking they will be wondering why they ever used windows in the first place. Do you not think this will propagate into bigger and bigger businesses as more and more people use apple computers?

But, besides this , the reason you are dead wrong is that Microsoft got where it was because THEIR strategy hinged on a single individual named Bill Gates and he was very good and they made alot of money.

Now he is gone and Mr. Ballmer seems determined to run the company into the ground.
It's pretty clear he has no idea what to do, all he knows is that Microsoft is going to be the industry's " first n-trick pony " , well that sounds nice and profitable, but I am pretty sure you have to fight an n-front war to do that.

Is the X-box 360 beating Nintendo ? ( the first X-box was a loss-leader...) How is the Zune doing ? Is Microsoft gaining any ground against Google ? They can't even buy a small dying search engine - Yahoo. Do I need to mention Vista ?
Google bought Youtube for what 1 billion ?... I think that is working out quite well for them. Google seems to have a near monopoly on this whole internet thing anyway, why else would Microsoft be so desperate to buy Yahoo? They could and should use that cash to build server farms/infrastructure and hire better engineers.

I understand that in terms of cash Microsoft may still be the 800-lb gorilla, but a fool and his money are soon parted ( even that much ), It seems to me the current CEO is a bit of a desperate fool, especially if he thinks he can even afford to fight an "n-front" war in the technology space. Especially when Google and Apple are involved. Nevermind ALL the other startups and the nature of the business in general, Microsoft can't exactly just go and kill netscape like they did before ( also now working with google BTW ...ever heard of firefox or seen their "homepage" ? )

Microsoft's past strategy worked because the internet was not nearly as important as it used to be and Gates knew exactly what he was doing, even when he did have to rely on DOS ( UNIX IS BETTER/MORE MODERN/BUILT FOR MULTIPLE USERS/ ETC... anyone willing to argue with that ? )

I don't think Microsoft even understands how to defeat google, let alone do it. don't forget geo-politics either... If you were a tech company would you rather be in the bay area or seattle ?



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64061-who-s-profiting-from-the-current-market-uncertainty?source=feed#comment-115720 115720
I think that should work nicely given the aforementioned uncertainty, no ?

what do ya'll think ?



]]> Mon, 11 Feb 2008 14:21:48 -0500
I think that should work nicely given the aforementioned uncertainty, no ?

what do ya'll think ?



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62222-the-u-s-s-economic-humble-pie?source=feed#comment-113648 113648
Someone please correct my head ( ergo portfolio ) if they can.]]> Wed, 30 Jan 2008 10:32:14 -0500
Someone please correct my head ( ergo portfolio ) if they can.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62222-the-u-s-s-economic-humble-pie?source=feed#comment-113646 113646
Also I would like to add, that almost no analysts/economists seemed to be at least "publicly" concerned about oil.

About all I can recall is a year old interview piece w/ Soros in Forbes ( or fortune ? ). Besides that I read a very small piece in the financial times a few months ago mentioning OPEC should peak around 2013.

I do remember George Soros saying he was def concerned about peak oil ( because its real and not a conspiracy... just possibly too scary to contemplate ). I also believe I recall he was then basically asked how this was affecting his investment strategy to which he more or less responded " I'm staying extremely liquid " , and def did not elaborate.

So my point is.... how in the F&$# is not only our economy , but the global economy going to get through peak oil. ( this is not the 70's ...its a global issue, not a "domestic" one ).

The only solution I see is a massive influx of capital into nuclear energy... but it's probably already to late to stave off a major global recession... hope we start soon to prevent a very bad depression...

anyone else agree ? disagree ? think I'm being a paranoid lunatic ?

]]> Wed, 30 Jan 2008 10:30:38 -0500
Also I would like to add, that almost no analysts/economists seemed to be at least "publicly" concerned about oil.

About all I can recall is a year old interview piece w/ Soros in Forbes ( or fortune ? ). Besides that I read a very small piece in the financial times a few months ago mentioning OPEC should peak around 2013.

I do remember George Soros saying he was def concerned about peak oil ( because its real and not a conspiracy... just possibly too scary to contemplate ). I also believe I recall he was then basically asked how this was affecting his investment strategy to which he more or less responded " I'm staying extremely liquid " , and def did not elaborate.

So my point is.... how in the F&$# is not only our economy , but the global economy going to get through peak oil. ( this is not the 70's ...its a global issue, not a "domestic" one ).

The only solution I see is a massive influx of capital into nuclear energy... but it's probably already to late to stave off a major global recession... hope we start soon to prevent a very bad depression...

anyone else agree ? disagree ? think I'm being a paranoid lunatic ?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61039-selling-my-hedges-on-today-s-hard-fall?source=feed#comment-112295 112295 However, I don't think the type of corrections you are looking for are going to continue through this recession ( yearish outlook ) because I frankly see no way out.
What I do see is stereotypical irrational bubble behavior, articles begging for the market to go up, a "stimulus plans" that aren't and shouldn't work, lightening quick changes in opinion on very macro-economic issues ( US consumer power, china's bubble, "subprime" , cheaper oil; what!?)
China has too far to drop and who can say what will happen if the dollar inflates at an even greater rate and something like the petrodollar disappears/gets heavily contested. I can only imagine something like this causing severe panic throughout markets.

Maybe it's time to straddle the VIX ? ( panic subsides in deep recessions/depressions )

What I keep wondering and frankly bewilders me; is why are no economists/analysts talking about peak oil or food inflation.

The rise of global population and the BRIC countries etc is very real, Oil is simply not going to get cheaper sans a global depression. The demand is rising much too fast, food and water are becoming similiar problems.

The Financial Times recently ran a small article mentioning oil demand would outstrip supply by 2013 ( peak oil ). Forget the great depression, how is the industrial age supposed to maintain it's economy without moderately priced energy ? How can the american consumer ( whom we all very recently said "drove the global economy" ) survive when they are already in debt on average and can presently barely afford gas.

My point is:
I don't think its naive to think this "recession" could quickly become a global depression. It would not require many unlikely things to occur, but only a few of the many likely things that could trigger it . ( Oil, inflating dollar, starving/thirsty populace, present day economy etc )

I am not saying armageddon is upon us, I suspect industrialized nations will start relying on nuclear power eventually, but I don't think things can be anything short of ugly for the next 5 years.

But 'till we go nuclear ( or discover a magical form of energy )
where will the energy/ food / cheap materials / consumption come from ? China is running out of these things too.

Does any economists dare contemplate that we may hit some kind of global carrying capacity limit for an industrialized fossil-fuel dependent populace ?

]]> Tue, 22 Jan 2008 19:02:35 -0500 However, I don't think the type of corrections you are looking for are going to continue through this recession ( yearish outlook ) because I frankly see no way out.
What I do see is stereotypical irrational bubble behavior, articles begging for the market to go up, a "stimulus plans" that aren't and shouldn't work, lightening quick changes in opinion on very macro-economic issues ( US consumer power, china's bubble, "subprime" , cheaper oil; what!?)
China has too far to drop and who can say what will happen if the dollar inflates at an even greater rate and something like the petrodollar disappears/gets heavily contested. I can only imagine something like this causing severe panic throughout markets.

Maybe it's time to straddle the VIX ? ( panic subsides in deep recessions/depressions )

What I keep wondering and frankly bewilders me; is why are no economists/analysts talking about peak oil or food inflation.

The rise of global population and the BRIC countries etc is very real, Oil is simply not going to get cheaper sans a global depression. The demand is rising much too fast, food and water are becoming similiar problems.

The Financial Times recently ran a small article mentioning oil demand would outstrip supply by 2013 ( peak oil ). Forget the great depression, how is the industrial age supposed to maintain it's economy without moderately priced energy ? How can the american consumer ( whom we all very recently said "drove the global economy" ) survive when they are already in debt on average and can presently barely afford gas.

My point is:
I don't think its naive to think this "recession" could quickly become a global depression. It would not require many unlikely things to occur, but only a few of the many likely things that could trigger it . ( Oil, inflating dollar, starving/thirsty populace, present day economy etc )

I am not saying armageddon is upon us, I suspect industrialized nations will start relying on nuclear power eventually, but I don't think things can be anything short of ugly for the next 5 years.

But 'till we go nuclear ( or discover a magical form of energy )
where will the energy/ food / cheap materials / consumption come from ? China is running out of these things too.

Does any economists dare contemplate that we may hit some kind of global carrying capacity limit for an industrialized fossil-fuel dependent populace ?

]]>