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seriously ?
38 Comments
Apple and RIM Battle for the Corporate Mobile Market
Exactly. I mean what's stopping apple from putting an iSight camera on this thing in 2 years time ? This is just one 2-sec example. The iPhone is clearly the "richest" AND easiest to develop for.
Apple and RIM Battle for the Corporate Mobile Market
Wrong. With the SDK, Apple will soon own this market sans MS/(hugecap/conglomera... buyout.
Here's a concrete prediction:
Either Apple is the clear market share gorilla in 2 years time or we will have begun speculating as to how much RIMM/PALM will cost.
Opening up: Has Microsoft Saved Itself or Shot Itself in the Foot?
The 'Four Horsemen of Tech' Are Not Equal
Apple's iPhone 2.0 'Bigger than the Personal Computer'
One that fits into your pocket and connects to the internet with a real browser in about 0.5 seconds.
"I've just read another article on Seeking Alpha that says SDK can only run one application at a time."
um....seriously ?.... you are right, right now my 36 core laptop is running an app on each of its cores, it really sucked when we are using 1 and 2 core computers....wait...we still do.
Have you used this device ? Do you understand how the internet works ? Give one scenario where ANY smartphone will be able to do ONE thing the iphone won't. ( note: I'm not even asking for something better, just something )
and just for fun, please inform me of ANY "mobile" device that can do what the iPhone can't/won't be able to. You are going to either have to start bringing up laptops or a PSP in my mind, both are which are fairly irrelevant to the space that Iphone is going to simply create.
" if you have to ask what the Iphone is, you'll never know "
Apple's iPhone 2.0 'Bigger than the Personal Computer'
"As the iPhone platform expands it should dominate the mobile market like windows dominates the desk top. As windows has made little impact in the mobile community (you have to operate it with a stylus - which hand are you using to drive) due to some boneheads idea of mobile being sitting in Starbucks."
exactly, who will kill the iphone now ? No one.
"When the latest Xserve was announced we did a feature for feature comparison with an HP server and the hP server was almost twice as much as the Apple Xserve."
"With the latest news out of Cupertino, the iPhone is about to blow up, making the iPod fenom look like a hobby."
Again, yes! The ipod will soon seem like a distant memory... ITS A CLOSED DEVICE. Investors need to get this. The iphone is not only a friggin' cell phone/computer/ipod/vi... games/whatever , but it's out of the box couldn't be easier wireless in your pocket.
The business possibilities of a wireless computer in your pocket ( that works ) are completely mind blowing. Not only can no other company develop hardware like this, but Apple just dropped an H-bomb in this space in the form of a developers wet dream. People are developing as we speak, and ALL of these apps will seamlessly port to any apple products ( which are extremely price competitive now) . The good developers will quickly find themselves rock stars that could be possibly flush with cash as their products are instantly available to all iphone users and apple will find itself with armies of developers and consumers addicted to their iphones.
Was Microsoft monopolizing the desktop a big deal ? What do you think will happen when Apple/google owns everypiece of software that you have become accustomed to having in your pocket 24/7 ?
Repeat: Apple is going to allow anyone to sell/show/give you whatever you want, instantly, in your pocket, and they will own all of it.
And you can also quickly forget about AT&T , why would I care to even pay for cellular when I could VOIP everyone with my Iphone ?
As for Microsoft, if Ballmer didn't shit his pants yesterday, he should be fired. How are they going to compete ? Give us a zunephone with vista development ? They apparently can't even build an operating system anymore.
"In fact Windows isn't even UNIX-based yet; the code base is likely to deteriorate over time, as we saw with Vista, rather than progress."
Right on the money, the fact that MS is still pushing DOS-based software is nearly delusional to me at this point. They have all but lost this game already ( well, after yesterday they should REALLY just go to UNIX, give it up )
Again, Microsoft is all but dead now, MS shareholders should demand a CEO that knows computers, Gates surely did, Ballmer doesn't seem to get it; at all.
O and what if google wins any spectrum ? I'm pretty sure we could just all use our iphones to hop right on and forget about their cell companies. I might even forget about my laptop.
Simple geopolitics are also playing a huge factor in this rape and pillaging of MS. Who's in the same exact area ? Apple, Google, Stanford, Genetech. O and I heard it's also the epicenter for VCs, biotech and tech startups. Microsoft is in Seattle and all the aforementioned companies are becoming no less than a bay-area hydra. Again, how can Microsoft possibly win now ?
Meh... that will never happen, its not like google and apple share and board members or google has been obviously developing Iphone apps from the beginning of this venture. That scenario wouldn't make any sense for either companies business models either. Google is definitely not pushing a free online desktop in the form of "iGoogle", they don't have ANOTHER UNIX-based SDK called android that is completely aimed at mobile computing as well. Ballmer should be sleeping soundly because Microsoft has the right hardware, the right software, server farms across the country, and the spectrum. Google/Apple aren't thinking any of these things, they are focused on the wired world.
Ok...Im done... but if you don't get this... as a friend I must tell you, you don't get this space... don't invest in this sector....
disclosure: I own a crappy amount of apple and google, though I just painfully sold some apple yesterday to fund a trip to europe ( do they still accept USD over there or are dollars just valued against toilet paper brands in the grocery stores? ).
I personally would let this recession bleed for a bit , then start moving into Apple once the fed cutting/ panic seems to have finally stopped. As historic as this was, I just don't think the stock can fight this recession. AAPL has resistance @ 120 and 100. Longterm, I would say it's a screaming buy at anything under 100, but I am simply not sure how bad this recession is going to be, so a buy @ 98 might leave you with a stock that can't break 100 for the next few years, or even worse a stock that hovers around 70, dipping into the 50's and 90's at times... so yea , short something else and buy energy/commodities....... into apple later and slowly ( as you think we are emerging out of this )
errr.... I should have a blog or something.... how many of you guys actually make real money ? I wonder who the poorest person commenting on this site is ?
Apple's iPhone 2.0 'Bigger than the Personal Computer'
"I highly recommend you watch the video yourself and not allow 3rd parties to interpret this monumental event."
It's right here:
events.apple.com.edges...
IMHO: this is just about the biggest apple announcement I have heard... well ever. ( i was thinking intel chips was big, but it just does not compare to this ).
I am long AAPL ... but its only worth like 2 Euros now...
8 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Now
"1. WIDgets. With iPhone SDK launch today (3/6), AAPL further extended its lead in the emerging WIDget (Wireless Internet Devices: GPS, email, TV/video, social) market. Making media content portable is a 200mm unit (annual) market; making phones portable is over a 1bn unit market. WIDgets is somewhere in between."
I agree with this general idea, but the iPhone SDK is MUCH more important than the author would have us believe. The SDK appears to be as identical as possible ( streamlined ) to the one already used by mac developers.
The iPhone SDK is Apples first step in taking over the business/enterprise market. Developers are already foaming at the mouth to program on this touch based device, and Apple is encouraging this full force with both an extremely streamlined store for developers to sell their projects, but an $100M ifund to own...err...encourage the startups that succeed on the iPhone.
So what's so historic about all these developers working on apps for a phone ?
ALL of these apps will easily be ported to WHATEVER other mobile/wireless/touch devices apple can imagine. The macbook air already uses many "gestures" , I can all but guarantee we will eventually see a touchscreen tablet, etc. So Mr. Jobs has somewhat clandestinely set the stage for an army of developers to make not only games/entertainment/so... apps/ but many many business /productivity apps as well.
Once Mr. Jobs has enough of the upper crust throwing out their blackberry's in favor of the iphone, he will move into the desktops ( if they still need them ) of these business and then their servers etc. With the iPhone SDK , the iphone will become so painfully robust with apps that the only people holding on to blackberry's will be those that can't afford to switch, those that are too cheap, those that are stubborn, and finally those that still prefer the keyboard. This is most likely not going to a thriving demographic of "smartphone" users.
So, we have 1,000's of working apps being developed for a computer that will sit in the pocket of businessmen. Once they become accustomed to the interface, do you think they will be more likely to ask their IT department about "switching" ? I think it is much more likely.
In short and IMHO:
The Iphone SDK was the business equivalent of Apple throwing a bunker buster into the enterprise space. Blackberry will be a easy battle in this space, Microsoft is the real "challenge". Apple will be able to use the Iphone to push their products, especially computers and operating system, to enterprise in a very aggressive way for the first time. Microsoft should watch their back, because I frankly don't know how they would stop this. I still stand by my view that Ballmer just does not know what he is doing anymore.
disclosure: I am a college bum that owns a measly amount of apple shares...
A Short Comment on Shorting
If your portfolio is driving you nuts, you are doing it wrong!
I have being feeling very "settled" as of late. I sold off a good bit of stock when the fed started "injecting liquidity" and have recently started to straddle the VIX , so i'm longer cash now and have a small bet on GLD and a small bet on the volatility of volatility. I'm feeling little stress...
Poor People Use Yahoo, Better Off Use Google
headline.
chart.
succinct analysis.
that's how you move information!
Apple: On an Innovation Treadmill
Ok, yes I am def an apple fan, but I would also like to think I bought the stock because they, along w/ google will continue to eat Microsoft. Not just because I think the hardware is better.
( remember whose on both company's board of directors )
"Hence the entire foundation of a company is hinging on a single individual who has an aversion towards building an ecosystem around Apple products. You have to compare this strategy against Microsoft which has built a strong channel partnership and ecosystem around Windows software"
Sorry, dead wrong here. Jobs does control apple very tightly, but they are also fairly strategic with Google for obvious reasons. Steve Jobs has all but said at various macworlds that, yes, he too ( like any good CEO ) wants Apple to dominate every piece of technology you own.
If you need any evidence, just ask yourself why Apple moved to Intel Chips and all but encourages its users to run windows along with Leopard, and really doesn't care how many times you install their operating system.
Have you seen/used the new features in Leopard ? They are alot of things that are potentially very damaging to MCRST control of the business space and all but killing the need for your local networking IT man, because I hate to break it to you, but you aren't needed if the software always works and remains very simple to use. No more frustrated fun calls from the secretary.
Jobs hasn't been loud about it yet, but remember we are only talking about OSX 10.5 here, not 11.0.
What do you think all of the one-click screen/file sharing features are for ? Graphic designers and hipsters ? I don't think so. Once small business find out how easy apple makes networking they will be wondering why they ever used windows in the first place. Do you not think this will propagate into bigger and bigger businesses as more and more people use apple computers?
But, besides this , the reason you are dead wrong is that Microsoft got where it was because THEIR strategy hinged on a single individual named Bill Gates and he was very good and they made alot of money.
Now he is gone and Mr. Ballmer seems determined to run the company into the ground.
It's pretty clear he has no idea what to do, all he knows is that Microsoft is going to be the industry's " first n-trick pony " , well that sounds nice and profitable, but I am pretty sure you have to fight an n-front war to do that.
Is the X-box 360 beating Nintendo ? ( the first X-box was a loss-leader...) How is the Zune doing ? Is Microsoft gaining any ground against Google ? They can't even buy a small dying search engine - Yahoo. Do I need to mention Vista ?
Google bought Youtube for what 1 billion ?... I think that is working out quite well for them. Google seems to have a near monopoly on this whole internet thing anyway, why else would Microsoft be so desperate to buy Yahoo? They could and should use that cash to build server farms/infrastructure and hire better engineers.
I understand that in terms of cash Microsoft may still be the 800-lb gorilla, but a fool and his money are soon parted ( even that much ), It seems to me the current CEO is a bit of a desperate fool, especially if he thinks he can even afford to fight an "n-front" war in the technology space. Especially when Google and Apple are involved. Nevermind ALL the other startups and the nature of the business in general, Microsoft can't exactly just go and kill netscape like they did before ( also now working with google BTW ...ever heard of firefox or seen their "homepage" ? )
Microsoft's past strategy worked because the internet was not nearly as important as it used to be and Gates knew exactly what he was doing, even when he did have to rely on DOS ( UNIX IS BETTER/MORE MODERN/BUILT FOR MULTIPLE USERS/ ETC... anyone willing to argue with that ? )
I don't think Microsoft even understands how to defeat google, let alone do it. Think about it, 2 stanford computer science PhDs vs. a Harvard economist ....good luck.... o and again let's not forget apple, and 10 years of bad blood from microsoft killing startups, don't forget geo-politics either... If you were a tech company would you rather be in the bay area or seattle ?
Ok Ive got more, but hopefully I've made some things clear, and if your still not convinced that Ballmer is desperate and has no idea how to fight these companies, I'll leave you with this:
"In 2005, Mark Lucovsky alleged in a sworn statement to a Washington state court that Ballmer became highly enraged upon hearing that Lucovsky was about to leave Microsoft for Google, picked up his chair and threw it across his office. Referring to Google CEO Eric Schmidt (who previously worked for competitors Sun and Novell), Ballmer allegedly said, "Fucking Eric Schmidt is a fucking pussy. I'm going to fucking bury that guy, I have done it before, and I will do it again. I'm going to fucking kill Google," then resumed trying to persuade Lucovsky to stay at Microsoft.[8][9] Ballmer has described this as a "gross exaggeration of what actually took place."
Those are not the actions/words of a confident man.
and once again, "it's the super-computer ( google ) , stupid."
Who's Profiting From the Current Market Uncertainty?
I think that should work nicely given the aforementioned uncertainty, no ?
what do ya'll think ?
The U.S.'s Economic Humble Pie
Someone please correct my head ( ergo portfolio ) if they can.
The U.S.'s Economic Humble Pie
Also I would like to add, that almost no analysts/economists seemed to be at least "publicly" concerned about oil.
About all I can recall is a year old interview piece w/ Soros in Forbes ( or fortune ? ). Besides that I read a very small piece in the financial times a few months ago mentioning OPEC should peak around 2013.
I do remember George Soros saying he was def concerned about peak oil ( because its real and not a conspiracy... just possibly too scary to contemplate ). I also believe I recall he was then basically asked how this was affecting his investment strategy to which he more or less responded " I'm staying extremely liquid " , and def did not elaborate.
So my point is.... how in the F&$# is not only our economy , but the global economy going to get through peak oil. ( this is not the 70's ...its a global issue, not a "domestic" one ).
The only solution I see is a massive influx of capital into nuclear energy... but it's probably already to late to stave off a major global recession... hope we start soon to prevent a very bad depression...
anyone else agree ? disagree ? think I'm being a paranoid lunatic ?
Selling My Hedges on Today's Hard Fall
However, I don't think the type of corrections you are looking for are going to continue through this recession ( yearish outlook ) because I frankly see no way out.
What I do see is stereotypical irrational bubble behavior, articles begging for the market to go up, a "stimulus plans" that aren't and shouldn't work, lightening quick changes in opinion on very macro-economic issues ( US consumer power, china's bubble, "subprime" , cheaper oil; what!?)
China has too far to drop and who can say what will happen if the dollar inflates at an even greater rate and something like the petrodollar disappears/gets heavily contested. I can only imagine something like this causing severe panic throughout markets.
Maybe it's time to straddle the VIX ? ( panic subsides in deep recessions/depressions )
What I keep wondering and frankly bewilders me; is why are no economists/analysts talking about peak oil or food inflation.
The rise of global population and the BRIC countries etc is very real, Oil is simply not going to get cheaper sans a global depression. The demand is rising much too fast, food and water are becoming similiar problems.
The Financial Times recently ran a small article mentioning oil demand would outstrip supply by 2013 ( peak oil ). Forget the great depression, how is the industrial age supposed to maintain it's economy without moderately priced energy ? How can the american consumer ( whom we all very recently said "drove the global economy" ) survive when they are already in debt on average and can presently barely afford gas.
My point is:
I don't think its naive to think this "recession" could quickly become a global depression. It would not require many unlikely things to occur, but only a few of the many likely things that could trigger it . ( Oil, inflating dollar, starving/thirsty populace, present day economy etc )
I am not saying armageddon is upon us, I suspect industrialized nations will start relying on nuclear power eventually, but I don't think things can be anything short of ugly for the next 5 years.
But 'till we go nuclear ( or discover a magical form of energy )
where will the energy/ food / cheap materials / consumption come from ? China is running out of these things too.
Does any economists dare contemplate that we may hit some kind of global carrying capacity limit for an industrialized fossil-fuel dependent populace ?