seriously ?

Global 'Oil Shock' Rattles World Stock Markets

wow. One of the best articles I have read here.

Synopsis of what I think is the "elephant in the room" when many economists speak of the current "crisis" . No one seems to disagree that we are running out of oil, but then no one wants to discuss the major implications for the global economy.

Tons of trading ideas in here as well, longs and shorts.

I think nuclear power is the only way out of this mess.

Get Long SP500 When VIX Hits 30?

Yes... 30 is simply a very near term point of resistance with the VIX.

I would agree with bumbie, this idea makes alot more sense with if the VIX pops over 35.

Of course, if you want to make a contrarian play based on VIX data, why not just trade the VIX or options on it ?

Currently I have VIX straddles at 25 that don't expire until August. I think this is a great way to play to uncertainty/fear that already here and will most likely increase.

The SP moves much more slowly , and is increasingly growing weary of popping back up.

We know that the VIX oscillates like hell before and at the beginning of major recessions ( the bigger the recession the more oscillation ) ...

why expose yourself to the risk of having no near/long term recession, when you could simply make $$$ regardless of which way the VIX moves...

Warren Buffet's annual letter even stated that the market could get very ugly very quickly. There are so many house of cards that could collapse right now, that I could not in good conscience recommend getting long much of anything right now.

People are already discussion $200 oil !?! , we haven't had a hurricane in what 2-3 years ( anybody know what in the hell that is about ? ) and if the petrodollar every falls apart...well... happy VIX day to me.

take home point:

It won't take much at all for the VIX to hit 35, 30 is too easy right now.
Even your graph shows getting long the SP at 11/12/07 might not have proved profitable. The trade would have required oracle like timing.

I really like playing the VIX right now, just not in this way.

The U.S.'s Economic Humble Pie

seriously... i cannot understand why this "housing bubble" / "credit crunch" etc is not going to look like a drop in the bucket after oil peaks.

Someone please correct my head ( ergo portfolio ) if they can.

The U.S.'s Economic Humble Pie

I def agree w/ your outlook.

Also I would like to add, that almost no analysts/economists seemed to be at least "publicly" concerned about oil.

About all I can recall is a year old interview piece w/ Soros in Forbes ( or fortune ? ). Besides that I read a very small piece in the financial times a few months ago mentioning OPEC should peak around 2013.

I do remember George Soros saying he was def concerned about peak oil ( because its real and not a conspiracy... just possibly too scary to contemplate ). I also believe I recall he was then basically asked how this was affecting his investment strategy to which he more or less responded " I'm staying extremely liquid " , and def did not elaborate.

So my point is.... how in the F&$# is not only our economy , but the global economy going to get through peak oil. ( this is not the 70's ...its a global issue, not a "domestic" one ).

The only solution I see is a massive influx of capital into nuclear energy... but it's probably already to late to stave off a major global recession... hope we start soon to prevent a very bad depression...

anyone else agree ? disagree ? think I'm being a paranoid lunatic ?

Consensus Economist Estimates Don't Suggest a Recession

Ok... I am not going to insult anyone with a long cogent article full of link s and numbers that should make the average investor say, "O a recession ? No shit."

It would be insulting because at this point when asked if our economy is headed towards a recession I think the average investor would ask me where I parked my squad car.

This article in itself is evidence of a the coming recession, irrational hubris, investors wanting to will the stock market up.

I am sorry people but we can't stop China's bubble it will have to spectacularly crash on its own and we certainly aren't ever going to have cheaper oil.

We all understand supply and demand right ?

We will be effectively "out" of oil by 2013 and the financial times agrees with me.

How then are we going to simultaneously stop the housing debacle, and get cheaper energy in the next 1-2 years ?? What about 5 years ?

There will be a recession. I'm sorry but at this point it's a joke to argue otherwise. I just hope it isn't too painful and DC gets a bit smarter ( nuclear energy, non bankrupting foreign policy , etc )

Until then ya'll keep buying and I'll keep shorting.

I am short the DOW via DOG.

I should be long oil and gold and short the dollar for the next year or so.

I think being long oil (spot price NOT a corporation...volume issues...get it ?) / short our stock market are the most obvious choices here.