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scubastevo80

scubastevo80
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  • Here's The Alarming Table Kinder Morgan Doesn't Want You To See [View article]
    Articles like the ones Hedgeye wrote make it great for value investors searching for top quality names. I would personally thank them for their old article that knocked KMI's price down to $32. Because of their scare tactic, I was able to pickup KMI at a 5.2% YOC and am up 20% in just under 6 months. I look forward to 10% distribution growth going forward!
    Aug 12 12:33 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Otrexup Sales Trajectory Points To First Profitable Quarter For Antares Pharma In 2015 [View article]
    Let's see if the rest of the year plays out as expected... they need to get to breakeven sooner than later to avoid dilution, especially at these prices.
    Aug 7 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Can Be Self-Destructive To Compare Yourself To The S&P 500 [View article]
    Yes - I would consider selling at a certain point and transferring to something with a better combination of dividend growth, because my plan requires increasing income, and not capital gains. I am not planning on selling stocks and reducing my asset base to fund retirement, I want 100% of the income to cover my expenses so I can pass on a large asset base to my kids when I die.
    Aug 5 05:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Can Be Self-Destructive To Compare Yourself To The S&P 500 [View article]
    Bryan, Bryan Bryan - did you honestly think I wasn't using an extreme to illustrate a point? Specifically, that the day to day price is irrelevant to me assuming the company's earnings increase. Countless dividend champions increased earnings during the GFC while their prices were halved. The herd certainly thought the sky was falling, didn't they?

    "Do you really think that if KO's share price drops to $5 you'll still be getting that $122 of dividends per year? that would be a dividend yield of over 20%." -Of course not, I'd step in well before a 20% yield to buy shares of KO assuming the business was still sound.

    "Do you really think that if KO's share prices increases to $5000 you'll only be getting $122 in dividends per year?" -I guess that depends on the reason the stock is going to $5000. If it's that far overvalued, I'd sell and find a better yield. If the company was indeed worth $5000 I'd imagine earnings were up huge due to sales of bottled water on Mars. If KO wasn't increasing dividends to coincide with those earnings I'd sell and find a company who was more shareholder friendly.
    Aug 5 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Passive DGI Portfolio: Portfolio Update [View article]
    Best of luck FFI - I'll be checking back on the portfolio progress as you and I have some overlap in our portfolios.

    I am curious though - why no utilities?
    Aug 5 07:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wisconsin Energy: Time To Buy The Dip In This Best-In-Class Utility? [View article]
    KOLP - what do you use to determine fair value out of curiosity? I have them at a tiny discount to all my metrics (S&P target price, Fast Graphs target price, and general analyst consensus). The only area I see overvaluation is in respect to the S&P fair value calc.
    Aug 4 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Can Be Self-Destructive To Compare Yourself To The S&P 500 [View article]
    It's amazing that many people here who criticize our investment strategy (NYSE:DGI) typically believe that those with the highest $ amount at some arbitrary point in time in the future are the winners. There's so many variables to a pure capital gains play, its tough to meet goals.

    I think what those people are missing is the consistent paycheck that we're all looking for in the form of a dividend. I could care less if my KO or MCD shares are worth $5 or $5000 in thirty years. If they're paying me 3% now compounded at 7% a year into the future, I'm happy.
    Aug 2 08:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Can Be Self-Destructive To Compare Yourself To The S&P 500 [View article]
    Cross - while someone may be comfortable with putting there money into the Russell or S&P and selling the principal in 25 years for income, there's a huge tax liability associated with that. If Chowder sold $3M worth of S&P (say at a gain of $2M), i'm not certain he'd be happy to get slapped with a bill of $300-400k.

    I'd also argue that, while new contributions to savings are part of return in themselves, the assets we purchase are, and those assets throw off income which should be included in the return. I track my performance net of flows (my $600 mo contribution), so I don't count that as positive performance.
    Aug 1 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Can Be Self-Destructive To Compare Yourself To The S&P 500 [View article]
    PTI - I agree, and that is something I am and will continue to look at. If I'm underperforming, like I have been, then I need to address why that is. My other income goal is much easier to define and track and the benchmark for that metric is last year's income amount. Last year I received $2150 in dividends, I expect that to grow by about 20% YoY at this stage (via investments made through my $600/mo portfolio contribution, dividend reinvestments, and dividend growth of individual companies).
    Jul 31 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Can Be Self-Destructive To Compare Yourself To The S&P 500 [View article]
    PTI/Chowder - I didn't choose Spec to beat the S&P, I decided on my own allocation to stocks for someone my age (33). That allocation is 70% dividend stocks, and 30% of my portfolio is riskier equities - a growth component and a speculative component.

    The growth component is for established growth companies that do or do not pay a dividend. My watchlist includes companies like ROST, GILD, MA, CMI and SBUX. These names should meet min financial safety ratings and many of the other requirements that the dividend stocks must meet - the main difference is usually the dividend yield at present. At present I only own AAPL and ROST here, this piece is not the problem.

    The speculative component is for those trades Chowder mentioned. My business plan defines these as catalyst trades (eg. biotechs), products that fill a market void (eg. netflix), or companies that were oversold (eg. Ford's selloff when GM went bankrupt).

    My mistakes were that I didn't follow my business plan and these stocks impacted my portfolio performance. It showed me that I underperform the S&P when allocating way too much to speculative trades. It showed me that, like Chowder mentioned, I need to focus more on timing and setting numbers to take profits and limit losses in the spec part. If I didn't compare to the index, I may just make a note that I have a loser in my portfolio. The S&P comparison showed me I needed to revise my business plan and stick to it.

    I've resvised the plan and plan on sticking to it going forward!
    Jul 31 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Can Be Self-Destructive To Compare Yourself To The S&P 500 [View article]
    I compare my overall portfolio to the S&P... not for strict alpha purposes, but rather to track my overall ability to keep up with the market since I have a decent amount of "growth" or "risky" exposure in my portfolio. In 2011 I outperformed by 14%, and in 2012 by 1%. Then I got greedy...

    I underperformed last year for the following reason: I had a 6+% weight in AMRN, a company who's SPA for Anchor indication I felt was a shoe-in. The FDA railroaded them and I lost about 80% of that investment.

    This year I'm underperforming by 12% as of June 30th. ATRS, my largest investment by far has slowly been falling. They were up about 40% following approval of their first proprietary prefilled syringe/drug Otrexup and I was greedy and didn't take profits on a growth/speculative company. Traders have since brought the stock down to $2 and I'm now down 40% on the position. I still believe in the position but have set price limits where I will be signficantly scaling the position back.

    What does all this tell me? That I'm not good at picking speculative stocks and that I need to reduce my non-Div Growth alllocation. I also need to stick strictly to the position limits I set for myself - max 4% in a "growth" stock (eg. GOOG, MON, MA), and max 2% in "speculative" stocks at purchase. The latter of which I may reduce to 1%.

    For the DG portion of my portfolio, I follow an approach that Chowder documents - how much my income increases YoY. Those numbers are doing well.
    Jul 31 08:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Dividend Payout Ratios In The S&P 500 [View article]
    Slowly - totally agree with you. I would love to see the S&P debt/equity chart plotted against the share repurchases one above. Issuing debt at 3% to buyback shares of a company paying a 3%+ dividend may look like an increase in EPS, but that debt P&I has to be paid back sometime.

    I do generally believe the corporate landscape is improving, but I'm also curious to see how things play out once the Fed begins to raise rates. Borrowing at next to nothing will not last forever.
    Jul 30 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks On My Watch List For August 2014 [View article]
    I'm an owner of MAT since August 2010, the position being up almost 20% annually for me. If I didn't have a full position, I'd be buying more. The 4%+ yield, sub 60% payout, and financial safety ratings (S&P quality = A, M* = A-, S&P credit = BBB+) all make this a perfect dividend champion in an already extended market. Toys aren't going away anytime soon!
    Jul 29 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything: Questions Answered [View article]
    StockBet - you assume that everyone is concerned with the performance of the overall stock market, and not that this is a market of stocks. The market can do as it pleases in the next 6 months or 6 years, I am buying companies that will survive recessions and will continue to pay me dividends in all market cycles. The increased market multiple makes it harder to find bargains, but they can still be found. Another 2008 would be welcome because I would be backing up every truck I could get my hands on!
    Jul 28 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks On My Watch List For August 2014 [View article]
    RSR - I work for one of the biggest Investment Banks (now FHCs) and I am forced to use their brokerage arm as a matter of policy, so that my personal trading can be survellied properly. I'm considered "above the wall" at my firm so my personal trading ability is severely restricted.

    I'd rather not say which to avoid any employer issues, but I'm not certain they'd even be an option for you unless you were going through one of the division's financial advisers.
    Jul 28 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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