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scubastevo80

scubastevo80
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AAPL, AMRN, ATRS, AVA, CL, CP, CSX, CVX, DE, F, IBM, INT, INTC, JNJ, KMB, KMI, MCD, MMM, NSC, O, OHI, PFE, PM, PSTI, SBUX, SO, T, TGT, TUP, UTX, VOD, WEC, WU, XOM
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  • Are REITs Overvalued? Only A Fool Believes (Video) [View article]
    Grumpy - given that the market is forward looking and that we all know a rate raise is in the pipeline, I have to believe that some form of increase is factored into REIT prices.
    May 7, 2015. 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITs Overvalued? Only A Fool Believes (Video) [View article]
    Investment grade bonds lose to inflation given their static coupon. REITs by nature of the tax code, pass income onto the investor. Sticking with O, they've increased their dividend 3.3% YTD. I'm also up 11% on the stock and have a yield on cost of 5.2%. No way I'm getting that from a IG bond. Overpaying for any asset is always a problem, but when REITs are valued soundly, I'll personally stick with the REITs since they conform to my desired goals.
    May 7, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITs Overvalued? Only A Fool Believes (Video) [View article]
    Rubicon - do you have a view on rates longer-term? I believe we're going to see low rates for an extended period of time. So if economic activity or inflation picks up and in fact rates increase 1-2%, I'm hardly worried.

    I personally care about yield and dividend growth, because my end game is an income stream I will tap into during retirement, which is 25-30 years from now. While many people measure performance solely based on paper profits vs the S&P, for example, some of us have hurdles for income each year. Share price, while usually a measure of company health and growth, isn't always rationale and can lead to bargains.
    May 7, 2015. 09:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITs Overvalued? Only A Fool Believes (Video) [View article]
    I have a full position in O in my Roth IRA, which is maxed out, so I've added to OHI recently as well.

    I also initiated LXP yesterday given the yield and turn-around plan they have in place. Their quarterly release this morning bumped up the lower end of the 2015 AFFO by 1 cent, and they showed progress in signing on more longer term leases (10+yrs). Additionally, they have about $150M in build-to-suit projects planned for Q2-Q3 2015, and have disposed of some office properties. Brad was instrumental in highlighting this smaller cap REIT to me, so I'm grateful for his continued research in this space.
    May 7, 2015. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITs Overvalued? Only A Fool Believes (Video) [View article]
    Ralph - Check Carnavale's FastGraph's tool provides this. You can look at historical P/FFO of a given company over past period's ranging from 3-25 years I believe. Brad has included these graphs in his other articles for reference.
    May 7, 2015. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You Big Dummy, I Just Bought More Shares In Lexington Realty [View article]
    Unlikely you'll see $6 as I doubt this stock will trade with a 11+% yield. They just met/beat earnings and I expect these complete another couple hundred million in acquisitions throughout the remainder of 2015. Once REITs finish being oversold due to fears of rising rates, I expect LXP to move back toward $10+ as this trades at an P/FFO of half that of the big boys in the triple net sector.
    May 7, 2015. 08:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CSX on the move as Ackman chatter grows louder [View news story]
    I have held CSX for 3yrs as well and it is one of my best performers. I bought it for the dividend growth (about 12% per year) but the total return (~25% per year) has been great as well, given all the past fear about declining revenues due to reliance on coal.
    May 2, 2015. 08:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hope Is Not A Strategy, Before Investing Have A Precise Calculation Of Return In Mind [View article]
    Chuck - thanks for the article. Your forecasting calculators help a great deal when I'm looking at several fully valued stocks and looking to make a decision. OHI for example, was only slightly undervalued based on my own calculations, and less so than some of the others I was considering. The forecasting calculators were the deal breaker as OHI's conservative growth estimates were more than 5% higher than 2 others I was considering. Thanks for your continued efforts to make FG's a great financial tool.
    May 2, 2015. 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hope Is Not A Strategy, Before Investing Have A Precise Calculation Of Return In Mind [View article]
    I own both SO and SCG as well as XEL. I bought SO because I think we're getting a discount passed on due to the cost overruns on current projects. I bought SCG and XEL because, at the time, they were the only utilities trading at discounts to fair value. All the others on my watch list (D, WEC, etc) were more than 5% overvalued. SO aside, both SCG and XEL have shown returns of 10%+ per year. I'll take that from a ute any day.
    May 2, 2015. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hope Is Not A Strategy, Before Investing Have A Precise Calculation Of Return In Mind [View article]
    I just picked up OHI on Thursday and will check my upcoming dividend for the 1% discount to be passed on to me. I plug all dividends and reinvestments into my personal spreadsheet so I can let you or anyone else know if this is indeed the case.
    May 2, 2015. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase [View article]
    I just read management's comments and I'm happy at present with their choice to hold the divvy flat given current prices. Below is the summary from the earnings transcript...

    Pat Yarrington - VP and CFO
    "It's a good question, Neil and let me just start by saying that maintaining a competitive and growing dividend is our number one priority. That has not changed. Our financial priorities have not changed, but what has changed is our immediate financial environment, the near-term environment has changed and so the board chose not to increase the dividend this quarter.

    It is similar to what we did back in 2008 and 2009, when prices last fell significantly. We are supporting a 3.8% yield, but clearly, we are not running very strongly on earnings or cash flow at the moment due to commodity prices. I think it’s fair to say that the first quarter was not a very stable financial environment, it was very fluid in terms of both revenues and costs. And so I think our overall decision is going to be based on what we feel is affordable and supportable in perpetuity, because we don't want to get into a position where we are having to cut the dividend or trim the dividend in anyway."
    May 1, 2015. 02:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase [View article]
    I plan to hold my full position as well. I believe CVX management will act in the best interest of shareholders. They reported a strong quarter and may be holding off on dividend increases due to a potential acquisition or some other wait-and-see scenario that management is considering.
    May 1, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Avenue For Healthcare REITs [View article]
    Pen - I lived in Australia for a year and my wife is Australian, and I totally disagree. While Australia may be simpler, their "poor" population is virtually non-existent and crime is minimal. The entire country has free access to basic healthcare, and their Superannuation (pension) system is mandatory for employers to contribute to employees, so there's no drain on social security or the elderly's quality of life. The people are generally healthy, friendly, and have most everything we have, with a slightly higher cost of living.

    To stay on topic, I don't think the US could ever switch to a system like that of Australia or the UK given that we have 10x the population and must deal with the insurance companies ability to lobby for their own benefit.
    Apr 29, 2015. 08:37 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase [View article]
    S&P raised their price target $5 to $88 on the back of PM's earnings release, but no change in the $76 FV calculation as of yet. M* reiterated their $92 tgt.

    Chowder - for this specific situation, how do you personally decide when to pickup PM after the earnings. Would you try to purchase at the open (or in extended hours trading the day before)? Is there a price that you won't purchase PM at? Do you draw the line if the price goes up to far?

    In thinking about my own core positions (PM is one, 3.2% position that I would consider taking to 4%), it is difficult to mentally pull the trigger after missing an 8% price increase. On the other hand, the stock still yields 4.8%, has recent dividend growth of 6% and management has just told us things will be better.
    Apr 17, 2015. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase [View article]
    Chowder - I initiated a position in MA this month (2%) and also upped my GILD holding from 1% to 2% after being assigned a covered call on my largest holding. I was also considering GOOGL but stuck with the dividend payers who are doing all the right things.

    I recently updated my spreadsheets with current data and looked at both MA and IBM, which I believe are two different stories. IBM is what I believe to be a value play, with an expectation that the business and earnings turn around and the company returns to a more normal P/E (I show 21% upside). My FV numbers have actually come down from around 30% undervalued given FV changes from S&P and Fast. MA on the other hand, is doing all the right things. After updating my numbers, I noticed the discount to my calculated fair value went from about 9% to 17%. I'm finally pulled the trigger and plan to hold this one for a long time.
    Apr 17, 2015. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
282 Comments
367 Likes