cranky investor

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26 Comments

    • Thu Jun 19th 06:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sears: Going Private? Not So Fast
      if eddie wants the company, he can have it. the only way for him to create a short squeeze is to keep buying up shares of a company that's loosing money faster than it can be printed
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    • Thu Jun 19th 06:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Garbage
      the 90s were a bit too heady for GE; however, it hasn't fared well at all under George Bush. The 15% rate on dividend hasn't helped; maybe, a commitment toward renewable energy (wind turbine) and clean energy (nuclear reactors) will.
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    • Wed Jun 18th 08:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Valuation of Traditional Media: Time Warner
      "big moat" around 1/3 of properties in group should add $1.50 - $2 to overall value; would bring it to $17
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    • Tue Jun 17th 06:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Eddie Lampert's ESL Holdings
      Fast Eddie had one big hit - he scammed the bankruptcy court and raped the Kmart creditors.
      Since then he's managed to plod along, accelerated the destruction of Sears, and otherwise accomplish nothing of merit.
      All the while he's lionized for the one scam he pulled which had as much to do with running a hedge fund as with cheating at poker.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 17th 06:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      S&P 500: Who Needs a Hedge Fund?
      fees based solely on realized gains will work towards creating incentives to take gains - killing more opportunities to benefit from ltcg treatment.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 5th 06:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Electric Cars for 2010: Shift from Foreign Oil to Riding on Local Renewable Energy
      myth of the electric car:
      GM's noisemaking about electric cars is the latest in a series of efforts to divert attention from its failure to make any real headway in improving mileage for its underengineered fleet of mastadons. Electric cars will no more be able to solve the dual crises of environment and oil supply than magic carpets:

      1. they are no replacement for the conventional refuelable-at-a-millio... auto for flexibility, useablility and conformity with an existing infrastructure
      2. the electricity to charge their batteries had to be generated and transported by a system that is taxed to the limit without the strain of the nation's transportation.

      While electricity may be useful for some limited purposes -- location-specific quiet or cleanliness where the vehicle will be used solely under controlled conditions - it makes no sense for a general purpose vehicle. Bear in mind that millions of urban drivers park on the street - far from a "friendly" source of controlled electricity; where do they recharge their batteries? An even larger group occasionally use their cars for other than strict point-to-point commuting or local errands: load up the car, the kids, and the presents, and drive all night to see the folks in florida or nebraska, or wherever. They want to refuel every 300 miles (a normal range) in the time it takes for a pit stop and a McDonalds hit - and then be on their way. Would the GM dreamers have them line their cars up at a "recharging station" on the Jersey Turnpike or I-80 outside of Salt Lake City while their batteries are charged?

      What GM needs to do is to develop technology which is real - lower eission engines - and useable - modern chasis designs which are powered with lighter weight, more efficient engines - and to stop using the smokescreen of gee-wiz phony tech to mask its failures in useable, practical engineering.

      Savings in oil and reduction in emissions will be incremental - 2mpg from lighter autos, 3 mpg from better designs, 1 mpg from tires, etc. - rather than with a "big bang" that ignores driving habits and needs and is completely inconsistent with the transportation infrastructure.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 1st 19:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Valuing Dell
      you guys seem right on target; i've held dell until this last pop and feel that they'll have to be a lot more positives to keep it where it is, let alone move it higher.

      while everyone is congratulating Dell for a "smoothless" move into selling laptops in mass merchandise outlets, the harder reality is that the fight over wireless internet - 60 per month for unlim access" which is so profitable, may move the wireless cos like sprint & att to find a promo lightweight notebook - along the lines of EEE - currently selling for $300 as a teaser for a wireless internet contract.

      with the inherent economics of scale in such business, it might be worthwhile to bring down the price to $50 per month on a guaranteed 2 yr contract. at such rates it will be easy to sell the notebook, particularly if the wireless internet is hardwired rather than by add-on card, as a complete computing package.

      for many individuals (single folks, college students, hermits, etc) the combination of a computer with standard attachment to a large screen, mouse & keyboard, and printer while at home with constant access to the net will be all they could need.

      it should scare the hell out of dell, hp, toshiba, and others which have constantly worked on making their computers faster, hold more, do more, etc. to justify maintaining that 550 - 700 price for basic laptops. A new breed of 7 - 10 inch portables with always-on internet connection could upset the entire distribution & sales scheme for all but the power users and those who do most of their work in a fully controlled environment.

      this could kill dell, cripple hp, and otherwise turn the pc business into a marginalized operation for specialty users -- just what dell can't afford.

      so enjoy a few good q's before the next wave washes onshore.
      View article »
    • Tue May 27th 07:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Retailer Earnings Will Continue to Worsen
      it is rarely possible to gauge retail activity by personal inspection of a mall or chain of stores. to say that the retailers aren't attracting the parents is to avoid the decent sales at Macy's, certainly not a youth cult store.

      what one can see in a mall tour is that some retailers are running lousy stores while others are up to date.

      walk into a Sears in any mall and it will be the least attractive main store of any
      View article »
    • Thu May 22nd 07:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Electric Hits Post-Earnings Low
      there has never been an investment opportunity with as favorable a risk-reward profile.

      stock yields 4 percent; it will match inflation with div increases; if nothing else happens, its a lot better than t-bonds
      View article »
    • Fri Dec 14th 07:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Google Soon Force Time Warner To Take AOL Public?
      a bit of "tail wagging the dog here", isn't there? even if twx were to take aol public, there's no indication that it would break itself up; it could do the same as it's done with the cable business - create a 19% public 81 percent owned sub in a basically tax-neutral transaction. if google then owned 5/19 of the "public" company, its stake would be pretty illiquid.
      View article »
    • Fri Dec 14th 06:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Walmart: Sales So Far Look Very Encouraging
      the biggest problem with wmt's 1-2 % same store sales gains is that inflation is running at a higher rate; as such, when one price adjusts their sales, it turns out that they're nor improving at all. Improvement means more than selling the same box of soap this year for 1.02 than was sold last year for 1.00.
      the true criteria for retail growth is "same store operating margin; the test whether from one yr to the next a store can maintain its core profitability it is a lot harder to manipulate those numbers since you can easily "buy" sales with lower prices but "buying" margin is a lot tougher
      View article »
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