malach hamovess

Staying Away from These 15 Dividend Decreasers

the list lumped some real basket cases - C, NYT come to mind, with a few that have a real sustainable business model that just need to conserve cash and bolster their balance sheets - JPM being a real standout here, one of the few major banks with a real future.

the fact that dividend cuts are far more radical than increases should not come as a surprise - increases are expected and "normal"; cutting a div is a highly radical step and is done with fear and fury.

Why Federal Realty Looks Interesting

reits with greater upside have been really beaten down by the freeze in credit. if you're buying a reit for the steady income right now, you'd probably be better off buying the quality bonds of a bigger reit - like simon; if you're buying for a rebound in the sector to be fueled by a return of retailing and/or a freeing of the credit markets, you might consider one of their more leveraged peers that's been beaten down - Kimco, Weingarten, or even DDR

GE: Still a Compelling Proposition for Value Investors

cash flow is not as significant right now as the marks it still has to take on its loans and other financial assets in GE Cap.

There are plenty of cf positive companies which are sitting on monster bombs

GE is just one of them, and until it can demonstrate that the financial business will be real-money profitable, you can't consider it either a growth or a stable investment.

General Growth Properties: Commentary from Ackman and Zell

at 60 cents a share, the bet is a payoff of 10-20 to 1.

if you want to bet with ackman, you can put some money down; it saves the traffic on the road to Atlantic City

Wall Street Already Back to Its Criminal Ways?

conspiracy theories abound. yet the increase in the price of Kimco was so great that there must be a lot more to it. The Kimco equity raise changed the whole game on the company. While it may have diluted the equity, it also guaranteed that the company has sustainability and that it wouldn't face liquidity or debt crises. Note that three equity REITs have recently raised 500-700 million each in secondary offerings, and each has had a major price increase subsequent to the raise (KIM, SPG, AMB). The markets perceive these companies a lot differently when their two to three year outlook isn't subject to the cloud of major debt maturities.

The further accusation that these issues are "dilutive" only holds true if one wants to live on the wire. Many of these REITs are so debt-heavy that an infusion of capital is a corporate imperative, and that isn't dilutive, it's curative.

UBS Downgrades AutoNation: A Reason to Ignore Analysts

this is absurd. the company still sits with 1 billion of goodwill - the price in excess of assets paid in acquisitions.
to say that an auto dealership can make money in these days is sketchy; to say that it can make outsized profits to cut its debt is over the cliff

My Personal S&P Target - 950

you'd better be ready for some real disappointment.

Target's Management: Watching Their Own Backs, Not Maximizing Shareholder Value

Ackman wants to decouple Target from its real estate; it could be a very big mistake as it would greatly limit the company's ability to maneuver as it closes older stores and opens more efficient ones. It also adds zero value at this point since there is no greater valuation placed on retail real estate than on the stores that occupy them.

If he thinks he can run the stores better, let him make his case; it all he wants to do is lever the company by burdening it with higher rent to cover fresh debt on spun-off real estate, he'd be ruining the company just as it's poised to take its place among the top survivors.

Some Banks Walking Away from Home Foreclosures

moral of the story

stay in your home until they force you out; get a cheap legal aid lawyer to stall it. they may never get you out if it's not worth their while.

of course this strategy won't necessarily work in Malibu, Ca or in Westport, Ct.

Some Banks Walking Away from Home Foreclosures

so, just like in the '30s there are abandoned properties. in those parts of the midwest where populations are shrinking rapidly due to job looses and aging, it's inevitable that some residential property is worthless. this time it's the bank who takes the loss.

The Great REIT Unravelling Begins? Simon Property Group Defaults on Loan

The Source was a uniquely poorly laid out, poorly positioned, poorly tenanted piece of drek in an area overstuffed with shopping.

If Simon is walking away from the property by defaulting on a non-recourse loan, it's to their ultimate credit.

Sooner or later, the idiot who made the loan will be fired, and the holder of the loan will take a lot less than its face for the property.

Real estate investing includes dropping properties; real estate lending includes underwriting for good and bad times - a skill that has long since been forgotten.

Ousting Rick Wagoner Won't Solve GM's Problems

creditors need to get real, too. bonds trading at 15 -20 cents on the dollar aren't going to be paid off. They, along with the gov and the unions are the new common shareholders - and they should deal directly with each other in bankruptcy court rather than through a stooge with no real authority


On Mar 30 08:12 AM Westy wrote:

> Right on - chap 11 will require the agreement of all major players
> incl Uncle Sam. Labor needs to get real.

Ousting Rick Wagoner Won't Solve GM's Problems

Wagoner may not be the problem; but as long as he's there, it's impossible to find a real solution. Looking at it a bit more seriously, he was appointed by the board; the board represents the common shareholders who elect and re-elect them; in real life, with the company's bonds trading at 15 - 20 cents on the dollar, it's quite obvious that the common shareholders are representatives of a worthless nothing. Yet, it was their guy who was running the show.

If anything happens at GM - for good or bad - it will be because of actions taken by labor, creditors, and the government (lender of last resort). As such, a guy whose only claim to legitimacy is that he was appointed by a non-representative board has no place at the helm.

Bullish on REITs Equity Sales

the other thing to look for is REITs tendering for their own debt at discount. this too is beneficial to preferreds as it increases their position by removing pressure from the top.

thus, preferreds of the REITs can be helped from both the bottom (more common) and the top (debt reduced at discounts)

finance.yahoo.com/news...

Bullish on REITs Equity Sales

How to play the reit equity sale:

The real beneficiaries of REIT equity sales are the preferred shares and junior or unsecured debt of these entities. While the common is most often heavily diluted when money is raised at distressed price levels, the preferred shares get a lot more cushion under them; similarly, junior securities benefit as liquidity issues are erased.

Consider AMB - its preferred rose 20 percent last week as the common was bulked up. Simon's preferred also took a nice pop, and its bonds also rose a bit (although not as much as it also raised more unsecured debt.)

Many of the REIT preferred shares are trading at such distressed levels that they can recover 30-50 percent on any stabilization of the common. They thus become a true equity play, with possibly a bit less upside but some (not that much) safety on the downside.