Armagedon's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/130412/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/107153-berkshire-hathaway-credit-risk-index-puts-are-overblown-worries?source=feed#comment-311301 311301 smart...]]> Thu, 20 Nov 2008 21:09:14 -0500 smart...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104666-effects-of-the-long-dated-treasury-bubble?source=feed#comment-300419 300419
I think you will notice the market has already started pricing this in. My inverse treasury swaps are at the money despite the central banks lowering interest rates. That can only happen if the market is discounting a new risk factor.


On Nov 07 12:01 PM JasonC wrote:

>
> Is everyone here very stoned?
>
> You do all realize, right, that exactly the brain trust making this
> same one-note idiotic prediction are the ones who blew all these
> bubbles, in real estate, in oil, in every commodity there is, in
> metals. Because if infinite inflation is just around the corner
> the right thing to do is get short dollar debt by borrowing to the
> hilt to carry real assets. Oops, everyone on earth just tried that.
> And it blew apart. Who'd pay them?
>
> In fact, the Fed left spendable money - M1 - unchanged for 3 straight
> years, and all the debts are therefore real, and all the real-asset
> bets against them went smash. And will go right on going smash,
> until you-lot get this inflationary brainstorm out of your system.
> Everyone holding debt is getting paid, and everyone betting against
> it is being forced to give away every asset they own.
>
> Will any of the johnny one-notes ever admit that it is precisely
> their hyperinflation prediction that just crashed and burned?]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 16:52:55 -0500
I think you will notice the market has already started pricing this in. My inverse treasury swaps are at the money despite the central banks lowering interest rates. That can only happen if the market is discounting a new risk factor.


On Nov 07 12:01 PM JasonC wrote:

>
> Is everyone here very stoned?
>
> You do all realize, right, that exactly the brain trust making this
> same one-note idiotic prediction are the ones who blew all these
> bubbles, in real estate, in oil, in every commodity there is, in
> metals. Because if infinite inflation is just around the corner
> the right thing to do is get short dollar debt by borrowing to the
> hilt to carry real assets. Oops, everyone on earth just tried that.
> And it blew apart. Who'd pay them?
>
> In fact, the Fed left spendable money - M1 - unchanged for 3 straight
> years, and all the debts are therefore real, and all the real-asset
> bets against them went smash. And will go right on going smash,
> until you-lot get this inflationary brainstorm out of your system.
> Everyone holding debt is getting paid, and everyone betting against
> it is being forced to give away every asset they own.
>
> Will any of the johnny one-notes ever admit that it is precisely
> their hyperinflation prediction that just crashed and burned?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104666-effects-of-the-long-dated-treasury-bubble?source=feed#comment-300414 300414

On Nov 07 09:32 AM Rhunzzz wrote:

> Ok. Could you explain why there is no way the US government can repay
> its debt? When the economy recovers, the US government can cut spending
> or raise taxes (even if the political will may not result in that
> happening) or in extremis, they can always print more money. Yes,
> that would be inflationary, but that is another issue. By the terms
> of its nominal obligations, the US can always pay off its debt.
>
>
> Still, it's very likely that long-term interest rates will have to
> go up. There is no other logical outcome to the Treasury about to
> issue oodles more debt. And that is ultimately what will tackle the
> inflation that will soon be created, indeed, is being created now.]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 16:48:21 -0500

On Nov 07 09:32 AM Rhunzzz wrote:

> Ok. Could you explain why there is no way the US government can repay
> its debt? When the economy recovers, the US government can cut spending
> or raise taxes (even if the political will may not result in that
> happening) or in extremis, they can always print more money. Yes,
> that would be inflationary, but that is another issue. By the terms
> of its nominal obligations, the US can always pay off its debt.
>
>
> Still, it's very likely that long-term interest rates will have to
> go up. There is no other logical outcome to the Treasury about to
> issue oodles more debt. And that is ultimately what will tackle the
> inflation that will soon be created, indeed, is being created now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102041-dollar-strength-an-illusion?source=feed#comment-291894 291894
The dollar is strengthening precisely because the US is tanking/deleveraging. This causes a destruction of currency supply. Less supply gives you a higher price. It is that simple.

The amount of currency being pumped is at least 10x less than the currency being destroyed, so no inflationary pressures will arise.

Best,

Arm]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:41:46 -0400
The dollar is strengthening precisely because the US is tanking/deleveraging. This causes a destruction of currency supply. Less supply gives you a higher price. It is that simple.

The amount of currency being pumped is at least 10x less than the currency being destroyed, so no inflationary pressures will arise.

Best,

Arm]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101984-using-the-regional-banking-etf-to-play-bank-mergers?source=feed#comment-291887 291887
Maybe what the author intended to say is that if you buy the ETF you will benefit from a strengthening of regional banks through mergers... Unfortunately, this too does not make sense as the same principal applies.

The only way for this trade to work would be if large banks came and purchased the regionals at ABOVE market prices (not the now so popular take-under). Unfortunately, banks have no intention or balance sheet to pay for the regionals.

Conclusion - This trade idea requires an important quality control review.]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:34:48 -0400
Maybe what the author intended to say is that if you buy the ETF you will benefit from a strengthening of regional banks through mergers... Unfortunately, this too does not make sense as the same principal applies.

The only way for this trade to work would be if large banks came and purchased the regionals at ABOVE market prices (not the now so popular take-under). Unfortunately, banks have no intention or balance sheet to pay for the regionals.

Conclusion - This trade idea requires an important quality control review.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101984-using-the-regional-banking-etf-to-play-bank-mergers?source=feed#comment-291886 291886
Maybe what the author intended to say is that if you buy the ETF you will benefit from a strengthening of regional banks through mergers... Unfortunately, this too does not make sense as the same principal applies.

The only way for this trade to work would be if large banks came and purchased the regionals at ABOVE market prices (not the now so popular take-under). Unfortunately, banks have no intention or balance sheet to pay for the regionals.

Conclusion - This trade idea requires an important quality control review.]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:34:48 -0400
Maybe what the author intended to say is that if you buy the ETF you will benefit from a strengthening of regional banks through mergers... Unfortunately, this too does not make sense as the same principal applies.

The only way for this trade to work would be if large banks came and purchased the regionals at ABOVE market prices (not the now so popular take-under). Unfortunately, banks have no intention or balance sheet to pay for the regionals.

Conclusion - This trade idea requires an important quality control review.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100642-why-oil-and-gold-are-headed-much-higher?source=feed#comment-289133 289133
If and only if banks start lending again (why would they when they can live off the interest of those government loan?) then would I even begin to worry about hyperinflation.

Conclusion: No lessons learnt. Wall Street is still full of talking heads. The sell-side is not worth a cup of coffee.
]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 17:32:26 -0400
If and only if banks start lending again (why would they when they can live off the interest of those government loan?) then would I even begin to worry about hyperinflation.

Conclusion: No lessons learnt. Wall Street is still full of talking heads. The sell-side is not worth a cup of coffee.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69946-fed-facing-a-money-trap?source=feed#comment-283383 283383 Wed, 15 Oct 2008 21:39:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75667-china-stocks-april-was-kind?source=feed#comment-162276 162276 Mon, 05 May 2008 17:59:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70368-meredith-whitney-threatens-severe-deflation-for-your-portfolio?source=feed#comment-161724 161724
That means Phill, your rant is fundamentally actually more dangerous to your stock position, than Whitney's comments. =D]]> Sun, 04 May 2008 20:09:43 -0400
That means Phill, your rant is fundamentally actually more dangerous to your stock position, than Whitney's comments. =D]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58215-fisking-ben-stein-on-goldman-s-wrongdoing?source=feed#comment-108749 108749
I guess Goldman's 14 Principles are just another of the things it keeps for show. While we are add it. Let's get serious. Goldman has $40 Billion in level three assets and no significant losses... Are their problems really that serious that they refuse to even open the box?

Best,

]]> Mon, 07 Jan 2008 13:37:56 -0500
I guess Goldman's 14 Principles are just another of the things it keeps for show. While we are add it. Let's get serious. Goldman has $40 Billion in level three assets and no significant losses... Are their problems really that serious that they refuse to even open the box?

Best,

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57307-ppi-cpi-i-m-even-more-bearish-now?source=feed#comment-105425 105425 Fri, 14 Dec 2007 20:15:32 -0500