richjoy

How Does the Financial Crisis Affect the Peak Oil Thesis?

I think when the discussion of future oil prices omits the term "peak oil", and focuses on the price impact of supply and demand, almost anyone can have a meaningful conversation and exchange of useful information.

Injecting Peak Oil THEORY changes the focus of the discussion away from supply/demand, and leads to emotional responses that obfuscate facts.

As an aside, I think Peak Oil theory is still a theory (though an important one). I tend to think that as the price of oil goes up, the price will justify the development of new technologies for the successful exploration of new oil fields in presently difficult/impossible places...I also tend to think it may not matter, as higher prices lead to the development of alternatives. The greater the availability of alternatives, the less the impact of oil--peak or otherwise.

Roubini Was Right

We all saw what unfolded in Congress...does anyone make allowance for the possibility that the situation HAD to get that bad before Paulson and Bernanake could get them to address the situation???

A Broker's Advice to His Clients

Excellent advice for those in their 20s to 40s.

However, unless something radical happens soon, we are going into a tough recession (some, but not I, think worse).

My point is that this recession will adversely affect millions of baby boomers who are/were planning to retire in the next 5 years. They are going to have to keep working (if they don't lose their jobs).

Furthermore, those in their 50s will need more years to make up lost ground, and even more to overcome the inflation we are going to be experiencing as the Fed uses years of inflation to get us (and banks) out of this huge mess!

Prepare to Sell Monday - Cramer's Mad Money (9/19/08)

Mr. Cramer may be smarter than he appears...but I just can't take seriously anyone who screams, uses rediculous sound effects, and generally acts like an idiot. For me, investing is a very serious business...not entertainment.

Time To Consider Oil's Homely Cousin, Natural Gas

I appreciate the increase in NG to produce electricity; my concern (not addressed above) is that NG may be in overabundance due to the unexpected finds in shale.

Chesapeake Energy Called the Market's Bluff

p.s. No one here is going to change their opinion of BO or JM because of some comment they read here...please keep this to CHK (or XTO).

Chesapeake Energy Called the Market's Bluff

Investing is about timing!...or the time value of money!

What good is it to invest in CHK (for example) if it is dead money for 3 years, than doubles in the next 5?...which means it took 8 years to double! Chances are, it is very likely you or I would tire of it and sell at no gain in less than those first 3 years.

Give me a stock that will grow by about 15% per year.

Most of us don't need 'home runs'; we need good sleep-at-night steady performers. (If you don't believe me--just look the turnover in your portfolio!)

Sharing Speculative Interest in GM

I could write a book on this, but will be brief:

1. Yes, Toyota did continue building the Prius when it was not selling. This only makes the point any business student would know--don't put all your eggs in one basket. When the market turned, their fixed-cost losses multiplied daily. For years, the 'former big 3' gave only lip service to investments in cars and fuel economy.

2. Don't kid yourself, GM (and Ford/Chrysler) have known for years about the coming 'peak oil', about the possibility of terrorist attacks on Mid-East oil, and about the growing gasoline demand from emerging markets (which they helped to feed). Yes, they KNEW gasoline could go quickly to $4, $6, and even $8 in a very brief period--and that they might not have time to retool their plants. They simply made an informed (but stupid) decision to try to maximize profits, knowing the costs of being wrong.

3. GM and the others agreed again and again and again to clearly uncompetive labor agreements that paid unskilled workers $50 per hour, plus benefits unavailable to 90% of the population. Together with the UAW, they made kings of the common man (which is fine if you don't mind unskilled workers being more highly compensated than you).

4. The 80's and 90's are replete with one agreement after another curtailing foreign (mostly Japanese) competition to give our car makers 'breathing room'--which they obviously squandered every time!

5. Bankruptcy is not an option. You might buy a $500 airline ticket from a bankrupt airline for a trip next week or month; but you would be a fool to invest $30k in a vehicle from a bankrupt GM. You don't expect your ticket to have a value after landing; but you certainly expect your vehicle to have a value after 3 or 5 years.

6. What does ther term American made mean today? We have a host of wonderfully competitive high quality vehicles made in America by Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and others. With even our 'formerly big 3' vehicles containing 30-60% foreign parts, there is no logic in loyality to GM.

7. It would be a huge mistake to bail out GM and the others. Yes, it would be painful for employees and shareholders. However, one of the best features of capitalism is "creative destriction' -- from the ashes of failed businesses rise new and more better businesses. DO NOT BAIL THEM OUT!

Insana Capital Partners' 'Legends' Hedge Fund To Close

On the one hand, I am sorry to see this happen to Ron; on another hand I have sensed his "arrogance" in recent appearances on CNBC; on another hand, I would welcome him back as an anchor.

Bond Expert: Monday Outlook

On the contrary, I think trading volume will be very heavier. I agree there will be volitility, and a tension between the bottom-seekers and those wanting to get out of their positions on price improvements.

However, in the bigger picture, what has happened?...FNM and FRE have been bailed out, all our other problems remain.

So at 4pm, I expect the market to have come back to only a modest gain.

Housing: Barron's Calls a Bottom

Oh how I wish this article were true. However, methinks the economy is getting worse (I won't bother with the stats); therefore, I just can't believe the housing market is bottoming now. But ask me again in the spring!

Rescuing the Drowning: $15B on the Way to Freddie and Fannie Mae?

1) I hope the story is true (the 'window' story on Friday was not true)--this situation can't be allowed to bring down all confidence in the GSE's, the financials, and the markets.
2) The announcement needs to be made before NY opens on Monday.
3) Any bailout should NOT protect the owners of FNM and FRE (that's the shareholders if you didn't realize it).
4) We are in a recession, and we will still be in a recession after this announcement; but relieving this situation will remove a source of potential U.S. market panic which could also reach worldwide.

Is It Time to Bet Against Oil?

OK, let's open the SPR, drain up to 50% of it by auctioning it to all bidders. (a) How will that affect pump prices when refiners need a greater margin? (b) Can you think of a worse time to drain the SPR than when it looks like there will be an attack on Iran? (c) If attacked, what happens to oil supply and pump prices when Iran closes the Straits of Hormoz? (d) If you think expensive gasoline is your MOST SERIOUS problem, what will you think is your most serious problem when the pumps are dry because the SPR is dry, and there is no gasoline at any price?

Chesapeake Energy: Truckin', Like the Do-Dah Man

I own CHK, I want to own a bit more (but not too large a % of portfolio) because I think CHK is among the best natural gas stocks at a time when demand for NG is increasing. I don't mind contrary opinions, and have no intention of getting into a pissing match over CHK.

Does Big Oil's Apathy Justify Proposals to Tax Windfall Profits?

Mr. Saxena's comments are so full of misrepresentations, outright falsehoods, and misleading associations as to be a complete waste of the reader's time (and certainly not worth my time/effort to even attempt to critique in detail).