richjoy's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/130700/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/100447-how-does-the-financial-crisis-affect-the-peak-oil-thesis?source=feed#comment-284363 284363
Injecting Peak Oil THEORY changes the focus of the discussion away from supply/demand, and leads to emotional responses that obfuscate facts.

As an aside, I think Peak Oil theory is still a theory (though an important one). I tend to think that as the price of oil goes up, the price will justify the development of new technologies for the successful exploration of new oil fields in presently difficult/impossible places...I also tend to think it may not matter, as higher prices lead to the development of alternatives. The greater the availability of alternatives, the less the impact of oil--peak or otherwise. ]]> Fri, 17 Oct 2008 08:49:05 -0400
Injecting Peak Oil THEORY changes the focus of the discussion away from supply/demand, and leads to emotional responses that obfuscate facts.

As an aside, I think Peak Oil theory is still a theory (though an important one). I tend to think that as the price of oil goes up, the price will justify the development of new technologies for the successful exploration of new oil fields in presently difficult/impossible places...I also tend to think it may not matter, as higher prices lead to the development of alternatives. The greater the availability of alternatives, the less the impact of oil--peak or otherwise. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98937-roubini-was-right?source=feed#comment-276286 276286 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 18:47:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98944-a-broker-s-advice-to-his-clients?source=feed#comment-276279 276279
However, unless something radical happens soon, we are going into a tough recession (some, but not I, think worse).

My point is that this recession will adversely affect millions of baby boomers who are/were planning to retire in the next 5 years. They are going to have to keep working (if they don't lose their jobs).

Furthermore, those in their 50s will need more years to make up lost ground, and even more to overcome the inflation we are going to be experiencing as the Fed uses years of inflation to get us (and banks) out of this huge mess!]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 18:41:56 -0400
However, unless something radical happens soon, we are going into a tough recession (some, but not I, think worse).

My point is that this recession will adversely affect millions of baby boomers who are/were planning to retire in the next 5 years. They are going to have to keep working (if they don't lose their jobs).

Furthermore, those in their 50s will need more years to make up lost ground, and even more to overcome the inflation we are going to be experiencing as the Fed uses years of inflation to get us (and banks) out of this huge mess!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96432-prepare-to-sell-monday-cramer-s-mad-money-9-19-08?source=feed#comment-259906 259906 Sat, 20 Sep 2008 10:05:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94159-time-to-consider-oil-s-homely-cousin-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-246626 246626 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 19:20:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93463-chesapeake-energy-called-the-market-s-bluff?source=feed#comment-244173 244173 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 20:52:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93463-chesapeake-energy-called-the-market-s-bluff?source=feed#comment-244172 244172
What good is it to invest in CHK (for example) if it is dead money for 3 years, than doubles in the next 5?...which means it took 8 years to double! Chances are, it is very likely you or I would tire of it and sell at no gain in less than those first 3 years.

Give me a stock that will grow by about 15% per year.

Most of us don't need 'home runs'; we need good sleep-at-night steady performers. (If you don't believe me--just look the turnover in your portfolio!)]]> Tue, 02 Sep 2008 20:51:12 -0400
What good is it to invest in CHK (for example) if it is dead money for 3 years, than doubles in the next 5?...which means it took 8 years to double! Chances are, it is very likely you or I would tire of it and sell at no gain in less than those first 3 years.

Give me a stock that will grow by about 15% per year.

Most of us don't need 'home runs'; we need good sleep-at-night steady performers. (If you don't believe me--just look the turnover in your portfolio!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92908-sharing-speculative-interest-in-gm?source=feed#comment-240511 240511
1. Yes, Toyota did continue building the Prius when it was not selling. This only makes the point any business student would know--don't put all your eggs in one basket. When the market turned, their fixed-cost losses multiplied daily. For years, the 'former big 3' gave only lip service to investments in cars and fuel economy.

2. Don't kid yourself, GM (and Ford/Chrysler) have known for years about the coming 'peak oil', about the possibility of terrorist attacks on Mid-East oil, and about the growing gasoline demand from emerging markets (which they helped to feed). Yes, they KNEW gasoline could go quickly to $4, $6, and even $8 in a very brief period--and that they might not have time to retool their plants. They simply made an informed (but stupid) decision to try to maximize profits, knowing the costs of being wrong.

3. GM and the others agreed again and again and again to clearly uncompetive labor agreements that paid unskilled workers $50 per hour, plus benefits unavailable to 90% of the population. Together with the UAW, they made kings of the common man (which is fine if you don't mind unskilled workers being more highly compensated than you).

4. The 80's and 90's are replete with one agreement after another curtailing foreign (mostly Japanese) competition to give our car makers 'breathing room'--which they obviously squandered every time!

5. Bankruptcy is not an option. You might buy a $500 airline ticket from a bankrupt airline for a trip next week or month; but you would be a fool to invest $30k in a vehicle from a bankrupt GM. You don't expect your ticket to have a value after landing; but you certainly expect your vehicle to have a value after 3 or 5 years.

6. What does ther term American made mean today? We have a host of wonderfully competitive high quality vehicles made in America by Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and others. With even our 'formerly big 3' vehicles containing 30-60% foreign parts, there is no logic in loyality to GM.

7. It would be a huge mistake to bail out GM and the others. Yes, it would be painful for employees and shareholders. However, one of the best features of capitalism is "creative destriction' -- from the ashes of failed businesses rise new and more better businesses. DO NOT BAIL THEM OUT! ]]> Wed, 27 Aug 2008 20:11:53 -0400
1. Yes, Toyota did continue building the Prius when it was not selling. This only makes the point any business student would know--don't put all your eggs in one basket. When the market turned, their fixed-cost losses multiplied daily. For years, the 'former big 3' gave only lip service to investments in cars and fuel economy.

2. Don't kid yourself, GM (and Ford/Chrysler) have known for years about the coming 'peak oil', about the possibility of terrorist attacks on Mid-East oil, and about the growing gasoline demand from emerging markets (which they helped to feed). Yes, they KNEW gasoline could go quickly to $4, $6, and even $8 in a very brief period--and that they might not have time to retool their plants. They simply made an informed (but stupid) decision to try to maximize profits, knowing the costs of being wrong.

3. GM and the others agreed again and again and again to clearly uncompetive labor agreements that paid unskilled workers $50 per hour, plus benefits unavailable to 90% of the population. Together with the UAW, they made kings of the common man (which is fine if you don't mind unskilled workers being more highly compensated than you).

4. The 80's and 90's are replete with one agreement after another curtailing foreign (mostly Japanese) competition to give our car makers 'breathing room'--which they obviously squandered every time!

5. Bankruptcy is not an option. You might buy a $500 airline ticket from a bankrupt airline for a trip next week or month; but you would be a fool to invest $30k in a vehicle from a bankrupt GM. You don't expect your ticket to have a value after landing; but you certainly expect your vehicle to have a value after 3 or 5 years.

6. What does ther term American made mean today? We have a host of wonderfully competitive high quality vehicles made in America by Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and others. With even our 'formerly big 3' vehicles containing 30-60% foreign parts, there is no logic in loyality to GM.

7. It would be a huge mistake to bail out GM and the others. Yes, it would be painful for employees and shareholders. However, one of the best features of capitalism is "creative destriction' -- from the ashes of failed businesses rise new and more better businesses. DO NOT BAIL THEM OUT! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92389-insana-capital-partners-legends-hedge-fund-to-close?source=feed#comment-237892 237892 Sun, 24 Aug 2008 16:30:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84865-bond-expert-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-205012 205012
However, in the bigger picture, what has happened?...FNM and FRE have been bailed out, all our other problems remain.

So at 4pm, I expect the market to have come back to only a modest gain.]]> Mon, 14 Jul 2008 08:56:29 -0400
However, in the bigger picture, what has happened?...FNM and FRE have been bailed out, all our other problems remain.

So at 4pm, I expect the market to have come back to only a modest gain.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84770-housing-barron-s-calls-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-204606 204606 Sun, 13 Jul 2008 17:15:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84771-rescuing-the-drowning-15b-on-the-way-to-freddie-and-fannie-mae?source=feed#comment-204600 204600 2) The announcement needs to be made before NY opens on Monday.
3) Any bailout should NOT protect the owners of FNM and FRE (that's the shareholders if you didn't realize it).
4) We are in a recession, and we will still be in a recession after this announcement; but relieving this situation will remove a source of potential U.S. market panic which could also reach worldwide. ]]> Sun, 13 Jul 2008 17:08:36 -0400 2) The announcement needs to be made before NY opens on Monday.
3) Any bailout should NOT protect the owners of FNM and FRE (that's the shareholders if you didn't realize it).
4) We are in a recession, and we will still be in a recession after this announcement; but relieving this situation will remove a source of potential U.S. market panic which could also reach worldwide. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84213-is-it-time-to-bet-against-oil?source=feed#comment-201703 201703 Wed, 09 Jul 2008 15:35:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84261-chesapeake-energy-truckin-like-the-do-dah-man?source=feed#comment-201692 201692 Wed, 09 Jul 2008 15:19:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83717-does-big-oil-s-apathy-justify-proposals-to-tax-windfall-profits?source=feed#comment-198541 198541 Fri, 04 Jul 2008 11:13:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83721-petrohawk-and-chesapeake-fly-on-haynesville-shale-news?source=feed#comment-198531 198531
I like CHK--the chairman is buying huge amounts of stock;, all USA sourced, so there is no terrorism premium; company owns vast acreage in all the major new NG finds, so not dependent upon one geographic area; and finally, NG is still cheap compared to oil, and is in growing demand.

I also am careful not to allow any one company (or industry) to become too large a part of my portfolio.]]> Fri, 04 Jul 2008 11:02:10 -0400
I like CHK--the chairman is buying huge amounts of stock;, all USA sourced, so there is no terrorism premium; company owns vast acreage in all the major new NG finds, so not dependent upon one geographic area; and finally, NG is still cheap compared to oil, and is in growing demand.

I also am careful not to allow any one company (or industry) to become too large a part of my portfolio.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83590-oil-time-for-caution?source=feed#comment-198319 198319
Worldwide oil demand has nudged or even exceeded supply. That means prices rise, and keep rising, to squeeze out the marginal buyers.

At the moment, oil is subsidized in many countries where oil demand is growing far faster than in the USA (though with about 5% of population, for years we have consumed about 25% of the world's oil...now billions more want what we have). Therefore, even if we decrease our oil demand by 5 or 10%, that savings will soon be lost against a much faster growing world demand among the other 95% of the world's population.

Reducing oil to $100/barrel and below is on the horizon, and $50 or less, is just over the horizon. It is quite likely there will be much more demand destriction than most can visualize. Because:

As gasoline reaches $6, $8, and $10, worldwide demand destruction will grow rapidly as fuel consumes a larger and larger portion of incomes, resulting in tens of thousands of large and small businesses are elimated, and millions of jobs lost. That tipping-point (and severe recession/worse) is more likely than we like to think. We may well see $2 gasoline...and wish we hadn't.

Unfortunately, it will be about 10 years before new oil fields and new liquid fuels, or enough hybrids, are in place to add substantially to today's supply...if we can ever agree to start, and what needs to be done!

It is that simple...and that serious to your economic future (and sadly, that of your children and grandchildren). This goes FAR beyond the bankruptcy of car companies, airlines hotels/resorts, state and city governments. Gasoline is life to billions!...wars have been fought for less! ]]> Thu, 03 Jul 2008 20:48:29 -0400
Worldwide oil demand has nudged or even exceeded supply. That means prices rise, and keep rising, to squeeze out the marginal buyers.

At the moment, oil is subsidized in many countries where oil demand is growing far faster than in the USA (though with about 5% of population, for years we have consumed about 25% of the world's oil...now billions more want what we have). Therefore, even if we decrease our oil demand by 5 or 10%, that savings will soon be lost against a much faster growing world demand among the other 95% of the world's population.

Reducing oil to $100/barrel and below is on the horizon, and $50 or less, is just over the horizon. It is quite likely there will be much more demand destriction than most can visualize. Because:

As gasoline reaches $6, $8, and $10, worldwide demand destruction will grow rapidly as fuel consumes a larger and larger portion of incomes, resulting in tens of thousands of large and small businesses are elimated, and millions of jobs lost. That tipping-point (and severe recession/worse) is more likely than we like to think. We may well see $2 gasoline...and wish we hadn't.

Unfortunately, it will be about 10 years before new oil fields and new liquid fuels, or enough hybrids, are in place to add substantially to today's supply...if we can ever agree to start, and what needs to be done!

It is that simple...and that serious to your economic future (and sadly, that of your children and grandchildren). This goes FAR beyond the bankruptcy of car companies, airlines hotels/resorts, state and city governments. Gasoline is life to billions!...wars have been fought for less! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83377-expensive-commodities-and-the-stock-market?source=feed#comment-197151 197151
If OTOH, BO does not stop all wars...]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 10:04:28 -0400
If OTOH, BO does not stop all wars...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83377-expensive-commodities-and-the-stock-market?source=feed#comment-197125 197125
If OTOH, BM does not stop all wars...]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 09:49:18 -0400
If OTOH, BM does not stop all wars...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83287-listen-to-the-companies-not-the-government-reports?source=feed#comment-196727 196727
A close reading of this post (actually a waste of time) reveals that it is a collection of disconnected thoughts and attacks on analysts (at least as much as government). Overall, it does little to develop a central theme in a coherent manner. ]]> Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:46:38 -0400
A close reading of this post (actually a waste of time) reveals that it is a collection of disconnected thoughts and attacks on analysts (at least as much as government). Overall, it does little to develop a central theme in a coherent manner. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83346-wsj-trots-out-same-fed-policy-axiom?source=feed#comment-196713 196713
It is therefore possible for critics to have the privilage of lambasting the fed in the comfort of an operating financial system.]]> Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:34:10 -0400
It is therefore possible for critics to have the privilage of lambasting the fed in the comfort of an operating financial system.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83316-compton-petroleum-asset-sales-misses-target?source=feed#comment-196706 196706 Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:27:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83316-compton-petroleum-asset-sales-misses-target?source=feed#comment-196469 196469 Tue, 01 Jul 2008 09:17:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83113-oil-at-new-highs-heading-to-the-exit-lane?source=feed#comment-195796 195796
Frankly, I share the fears of most investors who are moving a major share of their investment assets to the (cash) exits.

However, the problem with moving on fear is that it is a weak conviction. We are quite likely to start buying again at the first sign of 'maybe it ain't so bad/there are bargains out there/you can't time the market, so buy & hold is best'.]]> Mon, 30 Jun 2008 09:21:19 -0400
Frankly, I share the fears of most investors who are moving a major share of their investment assets to the (cash) exits.

However, the problem with moving on fear is that it is a weak conviction. We are quite likely to start buying again at the first sign of 'maybe it ain't so bad/there are bargains out there/you can't time the market, so buy & hold is best'.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83118-southwestern-energy-outlook-provides-compelling-valuation?source=feed#comment-195783 195783 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 09:08:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83160-xto-energy-natural-gas-can-expect-over-100-further-upside?source=feed#comment-195777 195777 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 09:02:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83160-xto-energy-natural-gas-can-expect-over-100-further-upside?source=feed#comment-195769 195769
However, most Americans are afraid to sit on a bomb of compressed gas...it may happen, but it will take much higher gasoline prices or lack of gasoline availability. When America gets to either of those points, we will have such a broken economy, no one will want to go anywhere anyway.]]> Mon, 30 Jun 2008 08:58:40 -0400
However, most Americans are afraid to sit on a bomb of compressed gas...it may happen, but it will take much higher gasoline prices or lack of gasoline availability. When America gets to either of those points, we will have such a broken economy, no one will want to go anywhere anyway.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83149-nokia-bargain-of-a-lifetime-barron-s?source=feed#comment-195463 195463
We do need to hold analysts accountable for hyperbole. You might have also added that 9x earnings is not necessarily cheap...and certainly not "Bargain of a lifetime" cheap.]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 18:40:04 -0400
We do need to hold analysts accountable for hyperbole. You might have also added that 9x earnings is not necessarily cheap...and certainly not "Bargain of a lifetime" cheap.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83136-petrobras-set-to-become-a-global-oil-major-barron-s?source=feed#comment-195417 195417
2. I'm not comfortable with the "like Saudi Arabia 40 yrs ago" call; as 40 yrs from now, oil will probably be cheap again because of new source fuels are cheaper.

3. It will be many years before PBR can bring those new finds to market.

4. PBR absolutely MUST have high oil prices to justify the huge cost of oil recovery at those depths and other technical challenges.

5. At PBR's present P/E, there are likely many more attractive opportunities. ]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 17:01:36 -0400
2. I'm not comfortable with the "like Saudi Arabia 40 yrs ago" call; as 40 yrs from now, oil will probably be cheap again because of new source fuels are cheaper.

3. It will be many years before PBR can bring those new finds to market.

4. PBR absolutely MUST have high oil prices to justify the huge cost of oil recovery at those depths and other technical challenges.

5. At PBR's present P/E, there are likely many more attractive opportunities. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83143-solar-and-wind-will-drive-natural-gas-up?source=feed#comment-195407 195407 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 16:49:24 -0400